Welcome to Part 3 of our 4-part NFL preview. Part 1 covered the East divisions, Part 2 covered the AFC North/South (to accommodate the Thursday Steeler/Titan tilt), and Part 4 will cover the West divisions this weekend. Check the other columns for the format…let’s get to the previews!
NFC NORTH
Minnesota – 10-6 (1st in div. 2008), 379 PF (12th), 333 PA (13th): If you read my preview of the Jets last season, you know what’s coming – I ripped NY for picking up Favre and assuming he was some kind of savior, and after a hot start the team imploded down the stretch. Now Favre is 39, engaged in no real offseason workouts, missed much of training camp, jerked the Vikings around for months – and the team is BETTER for this??
The way I see it, head coach Brad Childress has divided the team, shown that he cannot be trusted (after the first round of Favre negotiations failed, he told the team that Favre would not be there, period), and shown all the signs of a coach in panic. Tavaris Jackson wants out of town and why not, after the ‘loyalty’ his head coach has shown him? I don’t think Jackson is the long-term answer at QB, but I think he offers a lot more potential than Favre does at this stage. There’s a lot to like on this team – they run the ball and stop the run extremely well – but the defense DID give up a lot of points for a unit thought to be dominant. With no major upgrades in the offseason, it’s hard to see the defense making the leap from ‘good’ to ‘great’.
The schedule is soft early – no good teams until week 6 – so the Vikes MUST get off to a good start to have a chance. I think they will, but I think the tough middle of the schedule – BAL, @PIT, @GB- will take its toll and the team will fade late. Favre won’t make it through the season, and the Vikings will be right back where they were – a decent team with QB problems. 8-8 for the Vikings.
Chicago – 9-7 (2nd), 375 PF (14th), 350 PA (16th): The Bears are VERY similar to the Vikings – both feature good rushing attacks, both teams stop the run well, and both had QB issues in 2008. Chicago mortgaged the future to solve their QB problem, trading two 1st-round picks for Jay Cutler. No question, the move makes them better at QB and makes them at least co-favorites in the division – but there are questions about Cutler’s maturity, and also about the quality of his wideouts and O-line (two new tackles in ’09). I think that the offense will improve, but won’t be a top-5 unit.
My bigger worries are on defense – despite their reputation, the Bears weren’t a good defense last season, finishing mid-pack in points allowed and 30th against the pass. They didn’t import anyone of note to shore up the secondary, a decision that may backfire if the unit doesn’t improve in 2009. I look for SOME improvement by the defense but not enough to be a dominant unit.
In the end, I think Chicago is a playoff team – but I don’t think they win the division. I’m predicting 11-5 and a wild-card berth for the Bears, with the questions in the secondary and o-line holding them back from greatness.
Green Bay – 6-10 (3rd), 419 PF(5th), 380 PA (22nd): The Pack certainly didn’t miss Favre any – new QB Aaron Rodgers was one of the best QBs in the league in 2009. The problem for this team was bad defense and bad luck – typically a team that outscores their opponents by 39 points will go 9-7 or 10-6, not 6-10. Defensively, 380 points is way too many to give up to expect a winning season, but the Packers addressed that by drafting defense in the first two rounds, hiring Dom Capers to coach the defense, and switching to a 3-4 scheme.
Capers has flamed out as a head coach, but he’s an accomplished defensive coordinator who has generated results everywhere he’s been. With the attention to defense in the draft, I expect at least marginal improvement in 2009. Offensively, as long as Rodgers stays healthy, this team will score points – the team has a decent running game and outstanding receiving talent.
The Pack have an easy schedule the first 12 weeks but finish with a tough stretch and only two home games in their last five. Like Minnesota and Chicago, the early season is key for them – they play the Vikings twice in four games early on as well. I like the defense’s chances to rebound, and if that happens this is one of the best teams in the NFC. I think they go 12-4 and win the NFC North.
Detroit – 0-16 (4th), 268 PF (27th), 517 PA (32nd): I read a great quote this week – “the Lions are the only team that can honestly say they have nowhere to go but up”. How true after becoming the first winless team of the modern era. Things WILL get better, both because they have to, and because new leadership and a significant roster turnover have things headed up for the first time in years. Having said that, this still is a bad team – don’t expect miracles in 2009.
Offensively the team has decided to start top draft pick Matthew Stafford at QB, a bad decision in my opinion. Stafford’s college numbers don’t support the notion that he can seamlessly transition to the NFL as easily as some other recent rookie QB’s have – he didn’t start that many games in college, and his completion percentage was comparatively low. He has all the physical tools, but I would have had him ride the pine in ’09 and adapt to the environment – as well as spare him the physical and emotional beating of playing for one of the league’s worst teams. At least he has some weapons – RB Kevin Smith is an above-average runner, and WR Calvin Johnson is already one of the top-5 receivers in the league.
Defensively the team allowed over 32 points per game – and it wasn’t a couple bad games that skewed the numbers, the team allowed 31+ points in 11 of 16 games and 25+ points in 14 of 16. Aside from the first round of the draft, the team made defense a top priority, importing six free agent defenders and a head coach whose background is defense. Again, they won’t become the ’85 Bears, but improvement is likely – look for them to finish around 20-25 in team defense, a large improvement considering how pathetic they were in 2008 (no other team allowed over 30 points per game).
Overall I like the approach and I like a lot of the free-agent moves – 4 or 5 wins is a realistic goal for this team. The division is tough, so I’ll call it 4-12, with a bigger leap possible in 2010 if Stafford is the real deal.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina – 12-4 (1st), 414 PF(7th), 329 PA (12th): The Panthers enjoyed a resurgence last season based primarily on their dominant ground game – the combo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart rushed for over 2300 yards and 28 TDs. However, the offense fell apart in the playoff game and their good-not-great defense wasn’t up to the task. There’s been a lot of turmoil off the field this summer in Carolina as well, with two of the owner’s sons leaving the organization.
QB Jake Delhomme was healthy but had his least-productive season, throwing only 15 TDs and completing less than 60% of his passes. At 34 years old, I have a sense that QB might be a problem spot for the Panthers this season. Top WR Steve Smith was productive, but he’s now 30 and Muhsin Muhammad is 36….and there’s no depth at the position at all. Williams and Stewart must be just as productive in 2009 if this offense is to remain in the top 10.
Defensively, the team fared ok but was poor against the run – a bad sign in a rush-first division. The unit is fairly young but lacks star power – despite Julius Peppers’ reputation, he’s barely above-average as a pass rusher and struggles against the run at times. It’s hard to see the unit getting much worse, but I cannot foresee much improvement either.
With a tougher first-place schedule, and aging QB, and no obvious places for the team to improve, it’s easy to see this team struggling in 2009. In a division where the top team changes almost yearly, expect that trend to continue. I’m pegging the Panthers for 7-9 and 3rd in the division.
Atlanta – 11-5 (2nd), 391 PF (10th), 325 PA (11th): THE surprise story of 2009 in the NFC, the Falcons were left for dead in the preseason by everyone (including me). They benefitted from a very easy schedule and the surprise factor, but let’s give credit: rookie QB Matt Ryan was exceptional, new RB Michael Turner ran for 1700 yards, and the defense bent but didn’t break most of the year. Despite that, I see a bit of regression for this team in 2009.
Offensively, they will struggle a bit more because the league now has had a look at Ryan and will defense him better. The last four games of the season, the Falcons only averaged 166 passing yds/game – I think teams adjusted to the Falcons offense and the falcons now have to come up with some answers. In addition, throughout NFL history running backs who carry the ball more than 370 times almost always significantly decline the next season – footballoutsiders.com call this the ‘curse of 370’. The schedule is also a factor – rather than playing the extremely weak AFC West, they play the AFC East this time around, as well as the brutal NFC East.
Defensively the team didn’t allow many points but was 24th in yards against – and was worse than that when you consider they only gave up an average of 116 passing yards to the four AFC West teams (including only 10 to the Raiders!!!). The disparity between yards and points will shrink this season, and the Falcons will definitely allow more points. They also lost some talent to free agency, but concentrated on defense in the draft so I think their talent level hasn’t suffered much.
Put all of that together and add in that “out-of-nowhere” teams almost always regress in year two, and 9-7 seems about right for this team. Make no mistake, I think they are definitely on the rise, this should be a 1-year bump in the road.
Tampa Bay – 9-7 (3rd), 361 PF (19th), 323 PA (10th): What a mess. Through 12 games last season the Bucs were 9-3 and on pace for not only the playoffs, but a bye week. Then they dropped their last four, including a home loss to woeful Oakland that cost them a playoff berth. Their head coach was fired, the longtime defensive coordinator left to join his son in the college ranks, the offensive coordinator was fired in preseason, and the team is depending on Byron Leftwich to be their QB.
I’m not going to take much time on this one – they have a good stable of running backs, but the defense is in decline and between the offseason chaos and a tough schedule, this team is headed downhill in a big hurry. 4-12, and it may be a few years before Tampa contends again.
New Orleans – 8-8 (4th), 463 PF (1st), 393 PA (26th): The odd team out in this division – the other three all stressed the run and played above-average defense; the Saints passed the ball all over the place and couldn’t stop anyone. Drew Brees completed 65% of his passes and threw for over 5000 yards, missing the all-time record by only 15 yards. No one does that two years in a row, but the good news is that the Saints have the makings of a good rushing attack so the offensive dropoff probably won’t be that severe.
Defensively, the team imported three defensive backs via free agency and drafted a corner in the first round – clearly they realize where they need to upgrade. With their offense, the defense only needs to approach an average level for the team to excel (much as it was in 2006). With the decline of the other three teams in the division, there’s an opportunity here for yet another NFC south team to go worst-to-first, and I think the Saints can do it. The late-breaking news of injuries to Pierre Thomas and possibly Reggie bush make me nervous, as does the much harder schedule, but I think the defense will improve JUST enough to get them to 10-6 and a division title.
This weekend, we’ll finish things off with the least AND least, the terrible West divisions.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
