The Glass Eye: Division Series Preview

Ah, October baseball, the finest kind. 2008 saw a few big surprises and a few recognizable names invited to the postseason party. First, we’ll take a quick look at the surprise teams that did NOT make it, then we’ll take a look at each matchup, starting with the NL. One thing to keep in mind: 5 games is NOTHING in baseball. We’ve seen horrible teams win 8 straight games, we’ve seen excellent teams go on 5 game losing streaks. Predicting such short series is really a crapshoot, but of course we’re going to try it anyway – just remember, ANYTHING is possible in any of these series.

The big story, of course, is the Yankees missing the postseason for the first time since 1993. The Bronx Bombers were done in by injuries and pitching woes, finishing a distant 3^rd in the AL East. To me, it looks like not signing Johan Santana really cost them; I’d expect them to aggressively pursue C.C. Sabathia this winter, as well as try to trade for a CF (Johnny Damon can’t really play CF anymore).

Across town, the Mets followed their 2007 collapse with an encore performance, and fans now are left wondering if the team has missed a window of opportunity. The good news in Metland is that the bullpen imploded, and bullpens are (relatively) easy to fix. Expect the Mets to go hard after Angels’ closer Francisco Rodriguez (more on him below). An actual left fielder might help as well, and probably a starter to replace Pedro Martinez. Enough with the New York failures, on to the teams still alive!

On paper this is a big mismatch; from start to finish the Cubs were the best team in the NL, and the Dodgers were under .500 in late August. The Dodgers do have a few things in their favor – 1.) Manny Ramirez appears to ‘magically’ found a healing potion in LA, batting .396 with 31 extra-base hits in only 53 games for LA. 2.) In Chad Billingsley and Derek Lowe, LA features a power #1 starter and a battle-tested, groundball-producing workhorse. They also have 5 relievers with ERA’s under 3.15, led by Jonathan ‘Ox’ Broxton. 3.) Chicago’s ace, Carlos Zambrano, has been fighting shoulder trouble and has pitched poorly in 4 of his last 5 starts (the 5^th, of course, was a no-hitter). If Zambrano isn’t healthy the Dodgers have a decided pitching advantage.

In reality, LA needs to get a bit lucky to win this series. Chicago has a deep, powerful lineup that easily led the league in runs scored (855; 2^nd place was 799). The Dodgers only scored 700; even allowing for Dodger Stadium being a pitchers’ park, that’s almost 1 full run per game less. Chicago outscored their opponents by 184 runs, the best in the majors – LA only outscored their opponents by 52, worst among all playoff teams. Chicago can’t match the Dodgers’ bullpen depth but they have two dominant relievers in Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood, and in a short 5-game series depth isn’t as important as front-line talent. I expect Manny to be Manny and have a pretty big series, and I expect a few high-scoring games, but in the end Chicago is much the better team and I think the CUBS WILL WIN IN FOUR.

Now here’s an intriguing matchup. Both teams feature dominant lefty starters (Sabathia and Hamels); huge, powerful first basemen (Fielder and Howard), and both pitched far better than expected, finishing with nearly identical earned run averages (Milwaukee 3.85, 2^nd in the NL; Philly 3.88, 4^th).** Philly actually outscored Milwaukee, 799 to 750, which surprised me – I pictured Milwaukee as being the more potent offense. One of the weaknesses of the Milwaukee lineup is it tilts heavily right-handed – Prince Fielder is their only starting LH bat. Overall the Brewers batted much worse against right handed pitching, compiling a .246 average and a .738 OPS (on-base% plus slugging %, a good measure of offense), versus a .269 average and .806 OPS versus lefties.

**As an aside, there are exceptions but most of the time I’d rather have a great pitching team with marginal hitting than the reverse. This season the top-4 teams in NL team ERA made the playoffs, and in the AL 3 of the top 4 and 5 of the top 7 are in (Toronto finished #1).

This presents a problem for the Phillies, as their two best starters are lefties. Jamie Moyer represents the kind of finesse lefty that the Brewers usually feast on, so Cole Hamels is the key to this series for me. Hamels will start Game 1 and Sabathia will not pitch until at least Game 2, which makes Game 1 crucial for the Phillies. The good news for the Phils: thanks to his excellent changeup and control, Hamels held righties to a .215 average and a paltry .617 OPS (lefties had a .774 OPS against him). Hamels will get two starts in the series, and given the Phils’ weak back-end starters and Sabathia’s dominance since being traded to Milwaukee I believe the Phils have to win both of Hamels’ starts.

Philly’s big advantage is in the bullpen: closer Brad Lidge didn’t blow a save all season, and the Phillies boast a quartet of relievers with an ERA under 3.10. The Brewers worked around their pen problems all year – Brian Shouse and Pirate castoff Salomon Torres are the only Brewers’ relievers who pitched a significant number of innings with an ERA under 4.00. The Phillies should have an advantage in any close game after the 6^th inning.

So, who wins? Looking at the schedule Hamels will probably pitch Games 1 and 5, Sabathia will likely work on 3 days’ rest and pitch games 2 and 5. I think the teams are evenly matched and I think it will come down to Game 5 – I’ll take the PHILLIES IN FIVE, as sooner or later Sabathia’s huge workload will take a toll on him.

Every year, it seems there is one division Series that gets extra off-days, and this is the one in 2008. The series has three off days (after games one, two, and four) which means neither team should have to throw a 4^th starter out there, and also allows each team to shorten the bullpen. However, in this series I don’t see a clear advantage; both teams boast four quality starters, and both have four quality relievers. The only slight advantage I see is the extra time the off-days bought for Boston’s Josh Beckett. Beckett was initially slated to start Game 1 but was pushed back to Game 3 due to a strained oblique muscle. The pitching overall appears to be a draw; Boston allowed 694 runs, the Angels allowed 697.

The advantage for Boston can be found at bat: Boston scored 845 runs, second only to Texas in the AL, while the Angels scored 765. Again, some of that is attributable to the park environment – Fenway is a notoriously hitter-friendly park, but that doesn’t explain the entire discrepancy. Clearly, Boston is a superior hitting club. Now, LA did ad a top hitter at the deadline in 1B Mark Teixeira, and his presence greatly aids the Halos, as they are not a slugging team. Teixeira did his best Manny Ramirez impersonation in LA, batting .358 with 13 HRs and a 1.081 OPS in 54 games with the Angels. The Angels have one other superstar bat in Vlad Guerrero, and good hitter at 2B, CF, and C, but they also have a few offensive holes. By contrast, the Red Sox boast a very deep hitting attack, with the only notable weak link being aging C Jason Varitek.

Boston finished 5 games behind the Angels in the standings, but keep in mind that the Angels played in a division with no other .500 or better teams, while the AL East had 4 teams win 86+ games. Combine that fact with the run differentials (Boston outscored their opponents by 151 runs, LA by 68) and it’s clear that even allowing for the Teixeira upgrade, Boston is the better team on paper. But..that’s why they play the games, and I see one factor in LA’s favor: they went 50-31 both at home and away, while Boston went 56-25 at home but only 39-42 away. Yes, some of that is because Boston has a much tougher away schedule, but 50-31 on the road is quite impressive (only 1 other AL team was over .500 on the road: the Yankees, at 41-40). The Angels have 3 home games in this series, and that also is a fairly large advantage – if LA can split their two games at Fenway they have an excellent chance to win this series. Boston is the defending champ and they won’t go down easily, but I’m going to go against the numbers and PICK THE ANGELS IN FIVE.

The final pairing was set Tuesday night, as the ChiSox got dominant pitching and beat the Twins 1-0. The only run was scored on a Jim Thome home run, and that’s important because it underscores Chicago’s fundamental problem: if they don’t hit home runs, they don’t score. Chicago hit 235 home runs this season, easily the most in MLB (Philly was 2^nd with 200), yet they were only 6^th in scoring, mainly because their team on-base percentage was only .332, 15^th in MLB. They simply don’t get on base often enough to score consistently if balls aren’t leaving the yard. This problem is likely to be exacerbated against the Rays – Tampa pitching yielded a .314 OBP to opposing batters, second only to Toronto. Tampa also featured one of the league’s top defenses, as Rays pitchers gave up only 1349 hits in 1453 innings for a .246 opponent batting average. This will make it even harder for the Sox to string singles and doubles together. The Rays’ pitchers DID give up an above-average number of home runs and walks, so the key for the Sox offense will be patience at bat, and timely homers – getting the 2 and 3-run home runs rather than solo shots.

On the other side of the ledger, Chicago pitchers gave up a fair number of hits – more than 1 per inning on the season – but they allowed the 5^th-fewest walks, and a below-average number of homers. Tampa Bay hitters, on the other hand, accumulated the 3^rd-most walks in baseball this season. This is a KEY matchup – Tampa has a solid lineup, no one had a HUGE breakout year (with the possible exception of rookie Evan Longoria), but there are no obvious holes either. However, the Tampa lineup has shown it’s more vulnerable to left-handed pitching, with an OPS 52 points lower vs. lefties, and a slugging percentage below .400 against southpaws. Chicago’s two best starters this year, John Danks (winning pitcher Tuesday night) and Mark Buehrle, are both lefties. Tampa has won behind it’s stellar pitching and defense, with enough offense to cover for any lapses – but the Rays will have to solve these tough lefties to give their pitchers a chance to win.

In the final analysis, this is a close call. The Sox are hurt by not having Danks available for two starts, and being forced to throw their 4^th starter, Javier Vazquez, in game 1. Tampa, meanwhile has been able to set up their rotation. In a close series the small advantages really matter, so I’ll take TAMPA IN FOUR.

Later this week we’ll have a bonus Glass Eye for a Penguins preview, as Pittsburgh opens their season this weekend in Stockholm against the Ottawa Senators.