The Glass Eye: One Week in the NFL

Sunday morning, the NFL seemed easy to handicap. The Chargers, Colts, and (especially) Patriots remained the AFC elite; the Jaguars looked ready to move up; and the Steelers looked like a better bet to go 7-9 than 11-5. By Monday afternoon, much seems different. We’ll go over some of the findings from Week 1, as well as a quick MLB roundup.

We’ve seen teams lay eggs in Week 1 before and come back with no ill effects. Much of what we saw Sunday we will forget by week 10. It’s VERY dangerous to read too much into 1 game, much like in baseball it’s dangerous to read anything into April or even May – they play the whole season for a reason. Having said that, injuries, especially serious ones, are season-changing no matter when they happen, which leads us to:

–The Patriots are in serious trouble. When the reigning NFL MVP goes down for the season after only 15 minutes, it’s going to affect the team (not to mention the gnashing of teeth by anyone who drafted Brady high in their Fantsy Football League). I said in the preview column that the Pats’ season depended on Brady’s health, and I still believe that – yes, they have a weak schedule, but Matt Cassell is totally unproven and will likely cost them some games. The team still might go 10-6 or even 11-5 and win the division, but I cannot see this group winning the AFC with Cassell at QB. Of course, many said the same thing when Brady replaced Bledsoe in 2001.

The Steelers played a near-flawless game against Houston, dominating both sides of the ball until they sent in the backups leading 35-3. I was most encouraged by the offensive line and by Parker’s speed; coming off a broken leg I feared he may have lost a step. Big Ben was 13 for 14 passing – given the weakness the rest of the division showed, and the surprising vulnerability shown by other favored AFC teams, the Steelers appear to be in good shape.

Then there’s my surprise pick, the Detroit Lions. Playing the hapless Atlanta Falcons, who trotted out a rookie QB and a RB(Michael Turner) making his first start, they dug a 21-0 hole, allowed 220 yards (a Falcons record) to Turner, and generally looked just like the past 5 Lions’ teams have looked – awful. I’ll give Detroit one more week to show me this was the exception and not the rule, but I suspect the Lions are in for a long season.

We’ve discussed New England, who only beat a bad Chiefs team by 7. Jacksonville lost to the Titans, without Vince Young. San Diego gave up a long drive to end the game, losing at home to the Panthers. Indy looked BAD against the Bears, allowing rookie Matt Forte to run all over them. Cleveland got pasted by Dallas. I mentioned in the preview that I thought Cleveland would step back this season and I still feel that way. I also mentioned that I didn’t see Indy winning more than 10 games, and they certainly didn’t change my mind – they looked soft on defense and the loss of Pro-Bowl center Jeff Saturday really hurts them. No, the surprises were the Jaguars losing to the Titans, and looking terrible on offense in the process, and the Chargers folding late. Jacksonville had several injuries along their offensive line, which could pose problems for them all year. O-line injuries are very underrated, and Jacksonville simply isn’t a good enough passing offense to win without a good running game. Just as important, they had real trouble stopping the run against the Titans and they need to get that shored up if they’re going to contend for the Super Bowl. The Chargers game was very odd – San Diego moved the ball, their defense seemed to play OK, they got a late lead, but then the defense allowed Carolina to march right down the field for the winning TD as time expired. Maybe an aberration, maybe not, but it shows that San Diego is a bit vulnerable.

Aaron Rodgers played a solid game Monday night, the defense made some plays, and in general the Packers’ performance made me a semi-believer. I still think they’ll have their ups and downs, but I may have undersold them preseason at 7-9. Minnesota, on the other hand, has to hope QB Tavaris Jackson develops soon, or other teams will stack the run and shut them down as Green Bay did for much of the game.

Dallas and Philly looked dominant, the Giants are the defending champs, and the Redskins…well, as bad as they looked last week, Washington will probably improve. It’s the top 3 teams that make this such a tough division, and SO much depends on health, especially for the Eagles.

Now onto baseball – the only real races left are the NL West, NL East, and AL Central. The Angels, Red Sox, Rays, Cubs, and Brewers are all going to play in October. The Red Sox are getting healthy at the right time and appear to have the best team, especially with the sudden injury concerns on the Cubs’ pitching staff. In the NL West, the Dodgers looked dead in the water 2 weeks ago but have won 9 of their last 10 and now lead the fading Dbacks by 2.5 games. With only 17 games left, none head-to-head, the situation looks grim for the Dbacks.

In the NL East, the Mets lead the Philies by 2.5 games as well, also with no head-to-head meetings left. The schedules look fairly even, but at this stage 2.5 games is a lot, it appears my Philly prediction will not pan out. The one caveat: Philly trails the Brewers by 3 in the wildcard and they play 4 games against Milwaukee starting Thursday; if Philly can win 3 of those games the wildcard is in play for them.

In the AL, the White Sox lead the Twins by only 1 game. Both teams face a daunting schedule down the stretch, with lengthy roadtrips and a head-to-head 3-game series 9/23-9/25 in Minnesota that may well decide the division. Given that I think Chicago’s schedule is slightly more difficult, and that they play the wins in the Metrodomw, I think the Twins have to be slightly favored here. HOWEVER, in baseball, as Yogi Berra said, you can sum it up with one word: youneverknow.