The Stanley Cup Finals. Detroit vs. Pittsburgh. After both teams have dominated the playoff season, the Red Wings and Penguins face off in a series that has high potential to be an all-time classic. We’ll take an in-depth look at this series and the individual matchups, and of course give a prediction.
A quick synopsis of both teams: Detroit led the league during the regular season with 114 points. They allowed the fewest goals in the league and had the highest goal differential (257 goals scored, 184 allowed, +73 differential). Pittsburgh finished the regular season with 102 points, good for 2nd in the Eastern conference and 4th overall. They finished 6th in the league with 247 goals and allowed 216, which ranked 8th. In the playoffs, Detroit has gone 12-4, outscoring their opponents 55-31. On paper, Detroit seems quite superior.
The missing piece here, though, is the drastic changes to the Pittsburgh lineup during the season. As we’ve discussed before, Pittsburgh lost Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury, Max Talbot, and Gary Roberts for much of the season with various injuries. In addition, general manager Ray Shero pulled off two daring trades at the deadline, acquiring defenseman Hal Gill from Toronto and Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis from Atlanta. Hossa and Dupuis became Crosby’s linemates right before the postseason started, and in conjunction with the Malkin-Sykora-Malone line have given the Pens 2 top scoring lines. Gill has added a needed element of size and strength to the defense corps, and Fleury has recovered from his injury and is playing the best hockey of his career. All this has led to the Penguins’ 12-2 playoff record, outscoring their opponents 51-26. Let’s look at each team’s offense, defense, special teams, goaltending, and coaching to see who rates an edge in this series.
OFFENSE: Detroit is led by leading scorers Henrik Zetterburg (21 points in the playoffs) and Pavel Datsyuk (19). Leading goal-scorer Johan Franzen (12 goals) missed most of the last series with concussion-like symptoms; his return is crucial for the Wings. Aside from the top scorers, the most impressive part of the Wings’ offense is their defense; 3 defensemen have 10 or more points in the postseason. The goal-scoring has been a bit top-heavy in the postseason; aside from Zetterburg, Datsyuk, and Franzen no player has scored more than 4 goals. Datsyuk and Zetterburg play on the penalty kill and are linemates; clearly, stopping those two players will have to be Pittsburgh’s top focus – that will be easier said than done, as no one has effectively stopped that unit through 3 rounds.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has balanced scoring from their forwards (6 players with 4 goals or more), but no scoring depth on defense (only Sergei Gonchar has more than 6 points on defense). Detroit has the same problem everyone else has had this postseason – do you concentrate on the Crosby line, or the Malkin line? Detroit has a fairly deep defense, but one that is clearly led by probable Norris Trophy winner Nicklas Lindstrom. I look for Lindstrom to match up with Crosby most of the time.
These two teams are probably the premier offensive teams in the league; I give a slight edge to PITTSBURGH here because of the scoring depth and the possibility that Franzen will not play or will still be less than 100% for Detroit.
DEFENSE: Detroit has the best defenseman in the league in Lindstrom, a 5-time Norris Trophy winner who is almost certain to make it six this season. Detroit has three other top defensemen in Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Kronwall, and Brad Stuart. The third defense pair of Brett Lebda and 46-year-old Chris Chelios can be exploited; however they only see about 12 minutes of ice time per game so it will be hard for coach Therrien to get his top forwards on the ice against them. Overall this is a very imposing group, and they are the main reason Detroit led the league in goals against during the regular season and is only allowing 23 shots per game in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh’s defense is definitely underrated, as the team has a great mix of puck-movers and grit guys. The unit is led by Sergei Gonchar, probably one of the top-5 defensemen in the league. Ryan Whitney and rookie Kris Letang are not overly physical but are excellent puck-movers with scoring potential. Brooks Orpik is the big hitter, but he also is a very good skater and has learned to play well positionally. Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi won’t score much if at all, but provide sound, simple defensive games and rarely make mistakes. This is a unit that has never played better than it has the last six weeks, and they’ll need to continue that high level of play to beat Detroit.
On paper this seems like Detroit’s biggest advantage, but Pittsburgh is definitely better than most people realize on ‘D’. Still, DETROIT gets the edge here.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The series very well might come down to pivotal power play moments. Thus far in the postseason, Detroit has scored 16 power play goals in 75 opportunites (21.3%), and the Penguins have scored 16 in 64 chances (25%). Both teams employ world-class talent on the power play, and as a result both teams will want to avoid taking costly penalties as much as possible. Given the production and talent, I consider the power play units about dead even. Detroit, however, has a big advantage when shorthanded: they employ Datsyuk and Zetterberg regularly on the penalty kill. That has led to them scoring 5 shorthanded goals in the postseason while allowing none. Pittsburgh has scored one and allowed one. Pittsburgh has done a fine job killing penalties, but so has Detroit – the teams have identical 87.3% penalty kill numbers. Employing the big boys on the penalty kill tips the scale in DETROIT’S favor here.
GOALTENDING: Again, what an interesting matchup: talented youth vs. Cup-winning experience. Marc-Andre Fleury, age 23, has been nothing short of sensational for the Penguins, with a 1.70 goals against average and a .938 save percentage. Detroit’s Chris Osgood, now 35, has a 1.60 GAA and a .931 save percentage. Looking deeper, though, I think it’s pretty clear that Fleury has been the better goaltender. He has faced a lot more shots per game than Osgood yet has two more shutouts, 3 to 1. Osgood’s defense keeps a lot of pucks from getting to him, and he hasn’t faced a top-caliber offensive team in the playoffs. Fleury has faced several snipers in each round – Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, Jaromir Jagr, Daniel Briere, and Mike Richards to name a few. Detroit faced Nashville, a depleted Colorado team, and defensive-oriented Dallas. Fleury will face talent in Datsyuk and Zetterburg that is comparable to others he has faced this postseason; I don’t believe Osgood has faced anyone nearly as potent as Malkin’s line or the Crosby/Hossa combination. I think this works in Pittsburgh’s favor, and I expect Fleury to continue his solid-to-spectacular play. A bad game from Osgood, especially early on, will put pressure on coach Mike Babcock to turn to Dominic Hasek. Fleury has no such concerns, he’s the man in Pittsburgh no matter what. All those factors lead me to conclude there is a slight advantage to PITTSBURGH here.
COACHING/INTANGIBLES: Mike Babcock may be the most underappreciated coach in the league. All his team has done since he took over in Detroit is earn at least 100 points every season, winning the Central division each time. His calm demeanor seems reflected in the coolly efficient Wings, who rarely seem to make the big mistake. Yes, Babcock inherited a talented team, but he also has kept them focused and realized he didn’t need to rebuild anything, just re-focus the team.
Michel Therrien, on the other hand, inherited a mess. The Penguins were untalented and undisciplined when he took them over. In the beginning he was very hard on his players and remains a very demanding coach, but has learned when to back off. Having captain Sidney Crosby buy into Therrien’s defensive system 100% has helped a great deal, but Therrien deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround he has overseen. For such a young team, the Penguins seem to have a high maturity level, never getting to high after a win or too low after a loss. Therrien’s biggest test may be at hand, if the Penguins lose Game 1 it will be the first time his young squad has trailed in a series the entire postseason. Still, given the improvement the team has made and the way the team buys into what Therrien is preaching, I have to believe that they will continue to be very resilient.
Among other intangibles, many of the Wings have won Cups in the past. They know what it takes and certainly have worked hard in this playoff season. The Penguins, on the other hand, have shown an amazing amount of energy and desire and one gets the sense they realize how fleeting these chances can be. I think the Penguins will come out with a very high level of intensity in Detroit; it will be interesting to see how Detroit responds. The Wings had trouble putting both Nashville and Dallas away, which shows me that their intensity can waver. This is really a close call, but I’m giving THERRIEN and the PENGUINS a slight edge here.
So what’s the final call? I think that the Penguins will split the first two games in Detroit, and with their dominance on home ice lately (16 straight wins) and their solid defense I’m picking the PENGUINS IN SIX. If it happens that way, I’ll be in the Igloo to see the Cup raised! Pictures from Game Six will be included in the Finals Wrap-up edition in June.
Games One and Two are on Versus, Saturday and Monday. Games three through Seven are on NBC 5/28, 5/31, 6/2, 6/4, and 6/7 if necessary. This series should be an instant classic, make sure you catch a few games of it!
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
