The Glass Eye: Get Out the Brooms!

The Pittsburgh Penguins have continued to amaze the hockey world, winning last night 5-3 in New York to take a 3-0 series lead over the Rangers. The Penguins are now 7-0 in this season’s playoffs, a start last matched by…the 1994 Rangers, who went on to win the Stanley Cup. Let’s look at how the Pens are doing it, take a quick look at the other 3 series, and also a recap of the Steelers draft..both this year and four years ago.

You may recall I picked the Penguins to win in six games, citing their superior talent. I also said that goalie Marc-Andre’ Fleury only had to match New York’s goalie, Henrik Lundqvist. Well, through three games Fleury has allowed seven goals on 89 shots, for a 2.33 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage. Lundqvist, meanwhile, has allowed 11 goals on 74 shots, for a goals-against average of 3.66 and a save percentage of .851. Quite frankly, Lundqvist has been below-average in this series, particularly in games 1 and 3, while Fleury has allowed only one soft goal (by Jagr Tuesday night). In addition, the Rangers’ power play has been completely inept – they are now 1 for 14 on the power play in the series, while Pittsburgh has scored on 4 of their 13 power plays. Jaromir Jagr has played like he’s 25 again, recording 10 shots on goal in game 3 alone, but the rest of his team hasn’t followed his lead. I do look for NY to win tonight – the Pens can’t win EVERY game, and they did outplay the Pens pretty badly at times Tuesday – but this series will be over no later than Sunday in Pittsburgh.

The more I watch, the more I think this Penguins team really might win the Cup – they’ve got skill (Malkin has 13 points in 7 games, Crosby has 12), speed, toughness, depth (in 7 games 11 different players have scored goals), and stout goaltending. In addition, a few of the tougher matchups for them are gone in San Jose, Anaheim, and (hopefully) Montreal. Things can change in a hurry and this series isn’t over yet, but this is the best Penguins team since 1993 and they have to be the favorites to come out of the East now.

Their opponent may well be the Detroit Red Wings, which would be a VERY entertaining final – Detroit is probably the only team in the league that can match Pittsburgh’s skill and speed. They are up 3-0 in their series as well, and with Colorado suffering injury after injury look for them to finish the Avalanche off in Game 4. In the other Western Conference series, my upset pick of Dallas is looking good – they also are up 3-0, winning 3 VERY close contests, the first two of which were on the road, putting them in position to close out San Jose tonight at home.

The other Eastern series is very interesting – Montreal has dominated play for the most part, outhitting and outshooting Philadelphia by wide margins, but the Canadiens’ rookie goalie Carey Price has looked VERY shaky and allowed the Flyers to steal 2 games of this series. The Flyers’ defense corps has looked as slow as I predicted, and goalie Matin Biron has been under constant pressure – he’s the ONLY reason this series isn’t also 3-0. Can Biron keep it up? Can Price rebound? I see this series going at least six games, and since I picked Montreal to win in 5 last week I’ll stick with them in seven. Root for Philly, though, I still think they are the better matchup for the Pens.

On to football: I’ll review this year’s Steeler draft, because I have some strong feelings on it, but I also want to review the draft from 2004. I think four years is long enough to get a true sense of how a draft turned out, by then you’ll know for sure if a player is a bust or not.

The Steelers had the 23^rd overall pick in this year’s draft, and it was widely assumed they would place priority on help along both lines. There was a need for another running back, and Big Ben had called for a tall WR, but I thought they’d address those needs later in the draft. Instead, the Steelers went with RB Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois) in the first round. Now, I think Mendenhall will be a quality back, and I understand their thinking – he was apparently their highest-rated player left, so they took him rather than ‘reach’ at another position. Here’s my problem with it: RUNNING BACKS ARE EASY TO FIND. The Steelers have an All-Pro RB right now, Willie Parker, who was undrafted. They traded a 4^th-round pick in 1996 for Jerome Bettis. Barry Foster was a 5^th-round pick in 1992. The last time the Steelers drafted a RB in the first round, Tim Worley, he was a complete bust. Again, I do NOT think Mendenhall will be a bust, and I totally agree with the need for a back to complement and spell Parker. I strongly believe that the first round was the wrong time to get said back.

In the second round the Steelers again surprised me, but this time in a positive way: WR Limas Sweed from Texas is a GREAT value there. He’s big, strong, had good hands in college, but most importantly was undervalued because he is coming off an injury. This type of player is a great investment – teams get leery of the injury, de-value the player, and tend to disregard the excellent body of work prior to the injury. Heath Miller is another great example of this. With the acquisition of Sweed, the Steelers have a chance to be set at WR for years with Santonio Holmes, Sweed, and Hines Ward – As he ages, Ward will not be a #1 WR anymore but as a potential 3^rd WR he will be well above-average.

Quick look at the rest: OLB Bruce Davis is a typical Steeler pick, a college DE who projects as an OLB in the pros. 4^th-rounder OT Tony Hills is a head-scratcher; the team needed guards and a center, and they draft another offensive tackle?? 5^th-round QB Dennis Dixon is another good value pick coming off a knee injury – good for the Steelers to realize Ben needs a quality backup, and Batch is getting long in the tooth. 6^th-round LB Mike Humpal doesn’t project as anything special, but 7^th-round safety Ryan Mundy should excel on special teams initially and has good safety instincts.

Now, let’s hit the wayback button and look at the 2004 draft. I realized after I chose 4 years that this draft will be a win no matter what, because they chose Ben Roethlisberger with the 11^th overall selection. Ben led the team to a 15-1 record as a rookie, then a Super Bowl appearance in 2005. Safe to say this was a good pick. Good thing Ben worked out, because ladies and gentlemen, Big Ben represents the ONLY successful pick from that draft. 2^nd-rounder Ricardo Colclough was drafted as a project, a speed-demon who had poor technique. He’s since been released by two teams. 3^rd-round OT Max Starks may yet pan out, apparently the Steelers still think so – they just signed him to a 1-year, $6.9 million contract tender. Lot of scratch for a guy who LOST HIS STARTING JOB in 2007! The team traded their 4^th-round pick to Indy, 5^th round LB Nathaniel Adibi didn’t do anything (in fact I can’t recall if he even made the team that year), 6^th-rd OT Bo Lacy didn’t pan out, additional 6^th-round pick TE Matt Kranchick also didn’t develop, nor did additional 6^th-rounder C Drew Caylor. 7^th-round selection DE Eric Taylor also failed to make the cut.

In review, you have to give the draft an A, because any draft that lands you a franchise QB and a Super Bowl win has to be considered a success. Still, I’m giving it an A-, because with seven additional selections the Steelers didn’t strike gold even once, not even for an average starter. In fairness, this wasn’t a very deep draft – there were no non-kicker pro-bowlers selected after round 4, and not even any decent starters that I could detect. That’s atypical, usually the bottom of the draft will produce a few hidden gems. However, in the 2^nd round the Steelers took a risk on Colclough and bypassed players like Bob Sanders, Julius Jones, Jake Grove and Nick Hardwick – the last two are very productive centers we could use right about now. If we get a slow week in the next few months we’ll take a look at 2003 and maybe 2005 to get a clearer picture of how the Steelers have done.

Until then, LET’S GO PENS!!!