Northern Ireland could face the prospect of direct rule from London if its politicians fail to strike a deal over the country’s power-sharing executive Thursday.
James Brokenshire, secretary of state for Northern Ireland, has warned that failure to restore devolved government would have “profound and serious” implications.
The two largest parties, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin, have been given until 4 p.m. (11 a.m. ET) Thursday to come to an agreement or face the prospect of London imposing direct rule.
Though it would not be the first time direct rule has been imposed since the signing of the historic 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which brought an end to decades of bitter sectarian conflict and established a power-sharing executive in Belfast, the move would still be controversial.
What’s going on?
Northern Ireland’s power-sharing arrangement means nationalists and unionists must work together, with the First Minister and Deputy First Minister chosen from different sides.
But the two main parties — the DUP, which wants to remain part of the United Kingdom, and Sinn Féin, which is seeking a united Ireland — have so far failed to reach an agreement despite extensive talks.
The DUP-Sinn Féin administration collapsed in January when then-Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness — who died in March — stepped down after a dispute with then-First Minister Arlene Foster over a renewable-energy policy.
That triggered a snap election in which the DUP won 28 seats to Sinn Féin’s 27, with the two parties asserting themselves as the largest in the assembly.
Talks have taken place between the parties since then but no deal has been forthcoming.
Thursday’s deadline comes in a week when the DUP reached a deal with British Prime Minister Theresa May to prop up her government.
Under the deal, the 10 lawmakers from the DUP will back May’s minority government over the Queen’s Speech — which sets out the legislative program — as well as bills relating to national security and Brexit.
In return, the UK government has pledged an extra £1 billion ($1.2bn) investment in Northern Ireland over the next two years, in addition to £500 million ($600m) already committed.
But the deal has been heavily criticized by Sinn Féin, which said the government could no longer be impartial in attempting to maintain peace in Northern Ireland.
What are the sticking points?
The two sides are at loggerheads over a number of issues ranging from Brexit, the legacy of the Northern Ireland conflict, the Irish language and same-sex marriage.
Sinn Féin had originally said it would not accept any deal in which Foster returned as First Minister — that stance appears to have softened.
But Sinn Féin wants to see movement from the DUP on a number of areas including same-sex marriage, which is legal in the rest of Britain and the Republic of Ireland.
The DUP, which opposes same-sex marriage and has an anti-abortion stance, is unlikely to budge. It is also resisting calls from Sinn Féin to introduce a measure giving the Irish language the same status as English, while agreement over how to deal with the legacy of the conflict remains elusive.
There are also differences over Brexit, with the DUP in favor of leaving the European Union, though it is against a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, which could hamper trade and harm peace in the region.
While Sinn Féin wants Northern Ireland to be granted special status with the EU, the DUP does not want anything that will distinguish itself from the rest of Britain when it comes to a relationship with Brussels.
What happens if there is no deal?
If the parties fail to come to an agreement then it will be up to Brokenshire, the Northern Ireland Secretary, to decide whether to reimpose direct rule or extend the deadline further.
That would mean London-appointed Conservative ministers would run the devolved departments and decide how to spend the £1 billion the DUP secured from its deal with British Prime Minister May.
Another option that could be introduced would be allowing local civil servants to take charge of the departments until a fresh round of negotiations can take place.
There is also the prospect of yet another Assembly election if Brokenshire sees fit.
All eyes are now on Stormont with the parties attempting to find a way to avoid direct rule. But those inside the talks have yet to offer much in the way of encouragement.
Sinn Féin party chair Declan Kearney has criticized the DUP for failing to move on any of the “substantive issues.”
“They haven’t moved on any of the fundamental rights and equality issues that require to be embraced,” he told reporters Thursday.
DUP negotiator Edwin Poots warned Sinn Féin against “high-wire acts” after conceding talks had not gone smoothly.
“I would encourage Sinn Féin to be mature, no high-wire acts, let’s get down to work, knuckle down and find a way through this, and it is possible if people apply themselves.”