Winning the election is just the start of it. The list of troublesome issues facing the next president of France is lengthy, and it will not be easy to solve any of them.
Not only is the security situation worrying — the country has been in a state of emergency since the 2015 Paris attacks — but the economy is in trouble and the rate of unemployment high.
Although France is the third biggest economy in Europe, it has not recovered as strongly from the global financial crisis as its neighbors, Germany and the UK.
And while GDP figures are finally improving, they remain at very low levels.
These issues were key in the campaigns of centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen leading up to the first round vote.
The two candidates have radically different approaches — but whoever wins on May 7, experts told CNN there is no doubt that it will be the economy, above all other issues, upon which the next president will be judged.
Unemployment top concern
“Unemployment is the number one issue,” said Emmanuelle Schön-Quinlivan, lecturer in European politics at University College, Cork.
“The economy is doing slightly better and we’ve had a slow decline in unemployment in the past few months, but we’ve had mass unemployment for 30 years.
“French people are now at a point where they all have someone in their inner circle affected by unemployment. This is the key issue that people want to see solved.”
France is struggling to bring down its unemployment rate, which stands at roughly 10% — higher than the eurozone average and more than double the level of joblessness in Germany and Britain.
The problem is worse for young people: 24% of those between the ages of 15 and 24 don’t have a job.
Slow recovery
The International Monetary Fund predicts growth of just 1.4% for the French economy in 2017, one of the weakest rates in the EU.
Ariane Bogain, a lecturer in French and politics at Northumbria University, said: “I think to be deemed a success the key priority is the economy. That’s the main reason [current French President Francois] Hollande threw in the towel. “
Unemployment has been high for many years in France, which explains the success of Le Pen’s far right National Front party, according to Bogain.
“When I graduated in 1994, unemployment was 11 per cent. Today it’s 10 per cent. For 30 years we’ve had this constantly high unemployment,” Bogain told CNN.
“The situation has improved recently. Unemployment is down and GDP up a bit. We may be starting to turn a corner but it’s going to take ages, whether it’s Macron or Le Pen. It won’t be fixed in a year. It will take all of the five-year term.”
Dominic Thomas, Professor of French and Francophone Studies at UCLA said: “People have been left behind and that goes for these communities which are not automatically immigrant-based communities or poor immigrant communities.
“They are people living in the industrial north and rust belt, whose communities have been completely decimated by industrial change. That is no different to the northeast of England or the famous rust belt in the US.”
Terror threat
France has borne the brunt of terror attacks in Europe in recent years. An attack on a police bus in Paris left one officer dead just two days before the first round vote.
However, Dr Schön-Quinlivan said that in her view, the French electorate realizes that terrorism — particularly in the form of ‘lone wolf attacks’ — is “extremely difficult to fight.”
Bogain added: “It’s not just happening in France. It’s Germany. It’s Westminster. We know even if we put police everywhere it can still happen. They (the French electorate) are forgiving in that regard.”
Nationalism
Immigration was another hot button topic during the run up to the first round of the election. Many voters — and politicians — blame France’s current immigration policies for exacerbating unemployment and contributing to the terror attacks. Meanwhile there have been clashes with police in immigrant communities in Paris amid racial tensions.
Le Pen’s nationalist, anti-Islamist rhetoric propelled her into the second round. She has pledged to slash net immigration to just 10,000 people per year.
Macron, however, has warned against nationalism and attracted support from the left and right for his more moderate stance. He has praised German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s role in the migrant crisis and believes France should do more. The issue will continue to be divisive.
“This tension is absolutely linked to the economy. It is very much a national issue,” said Dr David Lees, a teaching fellow in French studies at the University of Warwick.
“In the south this is also due to historical divisions between those who are white and those who are from north Africa. In other parts of France it could be fixed by securing jobs for those born and bred in France.”
Dr Schön-Quinlivan said: “Macron’s point of view on immigration is that we should still be welcoming. But I don’t think the majority of the French people agree with that. Most people want to look after our own. That’s very strong.”