Scotland’s lawmakers are set to demand a second independence referendum when they vote Wednesday on the country’s future after Brexit.
With just a week to go until British Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50 and allows for formal talks to begin over terms of the divorce from the European Union, Scotland’s politicians are locked in a battle over their country’s future, not just in Europe but in the United Kingdom too.
While the vote in Scotland’s Parliament is expected to go in favor of those backing a second independence referendum, only the UK Parliament, which sits in London’s Westminster, has the power to sanction one.
On Tuesday, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has championed the independence cause throughout her political career, warned that it would be “wrong, unfair, and utterly unsustainable” for Westminster to reject the outcome of the vote in the Scottish Parliament.
And while May has already stated that “now is not the time” for another vote on Scottish independence, Westminster would be unlikely to block the demand outright.
How did we get here?
The prospect of a second independence referendum has been on the cards ever since Scotland bucked the national trend during the 2016 Brexit referendum, with 62% voting to remain in the European Union.
Since then, Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, has been outspoken in her desire to give the country the opportunity to decide its own future rather than be dictated to by Westminster.
Sturgeon says that a hard Brexit would be a “bad deal” for Britain. She also accused May of failing to engage with her call for Scotland to remain in the European single market after Brexit, and that Scotland risked being taken out of the EU against its will.
Sturgeon has said that she wants a new vote on independence to take place between the autumn of 2018 and spring of 2019 when the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU will have become clearer.
But she will face a challenge over her timetable, not least from May, who has accused the First Minister of “tunnel vision” and warned that her actions could jeopardize Britain’s chances of securing a deal with the EU.
View from Westminster
While May has been outspoken in her opposition to another Scottish referendum, she has not rejected the possibility outright.
In the last referendum in 2014, Scotland voted 55% to 45% to remain in the United Kingdom — but the SNP says the landscape has changed since Britain decided to leave the EU.
Last week, the UK’s Scotland Secretary David Mundell said the UK government would not entertain negotiations with Sturgeon over the possibility of second referendum.
He said the SNP’s referendum proposal was “not fair” and would not allow people to “make an informed choice.”
But that position is likely to change, though the timing of a new referendum remains subject to debate.
Is there any opposition in Scotland?
Sturgeon’s demand for a second referendum is far from universally popular in the Scottish Parliament.
During the first day of a two-day debate Tuesday, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said, “most people in Scotland are sick to death of the SNP’s games.”
“There cannot be a referendum until people know what they’re voting for, until the Brexit process is complete and they know both what the UK and what independence looks like,” she added.
Kezia Dugdale, leader of the Scottish Labour Party which will also oppose the motion, was similarly scathing.
“Brexit isn’t the motivation for another referendum — it’s just the latest excuse,” she said.
So will the motion pass?
While the Scottish Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties are expected to vote against the motion, it is still expected to pass.
The SNP, which is a minority government, is also expected to receive the backing of the Scottish Green Party.
That will then provide the mandate for the Scottish government to request that the UK government grants permission for a second independence vote.
It would then be up to politicians in London to make the final decision — a decision which could lead to bringing about the end of the United Kingdom.