Conservative Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s party has taken the lead in an election widely seen as an indicator of populist sentiment in Europe, exit polls for the national broadcaster NOS indicated Wednesday.
Estimates project the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is followed by a three-way tie for second: Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and and D66 (Democrats).
Wilders, a far-right firebrand, tweeted: “PVV voters thanks. We won seats, first victory is in. Rutte hasn’t got rid of me yet.”
Other parties expected to win seats are: GroenLinks (Green Left), the Socialist Party and the Labour (PVDA), led by Deputy Prime Minister Lodewijk Asscher.
The vote was widely seen as a test of populism in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s victory and the Brexit referendum vote in the UK.
Controversial anti-immigrant, anti-European Union figure Wilders had run on a “de-Islamification” platform, calling for Islamic schools to be closed and the Quran and burqa to be banned.
That message struck a chord with many ordinary Dutch voters who have been hard hit by the government’s austerity measures, and who feel the country has taken in too many refugees and migrants.
“The Netherlands is full,” Wilders supporter Jack told CNN outside a polling station in Volendam on Wednesday. “If it were up to me I would have stopped all [Turkish people] at the border.”
Others were disturbed by the tone of the campaign, and said they had voted tactically, to keep the far right out of power, or for parties they trusted to fight for causes they cared about, irrespective of the current political climate.
“I thought it was important and so I voted strategically,” said Amsterdam resident Kathie Somerwil. “I usually vote a little more left of center but at least now with this Wilders, I think this is not the Dutch way … so I voted VVD for Mr. Rutte.”
Author Bert Nap said he had voted for the progressive PVDA party because it had had the guts to go into government with Rutte’s party, despite that making it “very unpopular” with many supporters.
“I want to sustain a party in our political system that has acted very strongly … They will be decimated in this election but they have to be able to come upright for the next election and so you have to sustain it,” he said.
Coalitions take a while to form
The splintered political landscape in the Netherlands — there were 28 parties on the ballot — and the country’s system of proportional representation mean coalition government is the norm.
But it can also lead to lengthy periods of political instability and uncertainty. The average time taken to form a coalition cabinet in the post-war era has been 89.5 days, according to the House of Representatives website. In 1977, it took 208 days for Dries Van Agt’s Christian Democrats to reach a power-sharing deal.
Voters say they are expecting a protracted period of talks before the make-up of the next government becomes clear.
“I think there will be a lot of negotiations,” said research analyst Robin Vanstraalen. “Given the whole fragmentation and the polls showing it will be a long process. And eventually it will end up in the middle — which is where we have been for the last few years already.”
Factors that boosted support for leader
At one stage, Wilders and Rutte were neck-and-neck in the Peilingwijzer poll of polls by Leiden University, but in recent days Rutte had taken the lead. He had moved to the right in response to Wilders’ popularity.
Andre Krouwel, political scientist at the Free University Amsterdam, and owner of election website Kieskompas, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ongoing war of words with the Dutch government appeared to have boosted support for Rutte.
Tensions between the Netherlands and Turkey have been high since the Dutch government refused to allow Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to visit Rotterdam for a political rally last weekend; Erdogan retaliated by blaming the Netherlands for the Srebrenica massacre in 995.
Voter turnout in the Netherlands is traditionally high — almost 75% at the last election in 2012 — and there are indications that Wednesday’s polls are no exception.
A CNN reporter in The Hague State saw long queues forming at polling booths in the city’s central station as commuters returned home from work.
And NOS reported that by 5:45 p.m. local time, 55% of the electorate had voted — up from 48% at the same time in 2012.
Amsterdam polling station volunteer Hanneke Spijker told CNN large numbers of people had been coming out to vote since early Wednesday morning. “It’s incredible,” she said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it will be a record turnout … there were lines, and we never have lines.”