A ceasefire aimed at putting an end to fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists due to start Monday is in danger of failing even before it gets off the ground.
The deal, announced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, is a renewed attempt to enforce the Minsk peace protocol — an agreement that has repeatedly faltered since it was first partially implemented two years ago.
But the sustainability of the fledgling peace deal was further thrown into doubt by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who effectively withdrew from the Minsk agreement by signing an executive order which will recognize travel documents issued by the de facto separatist authorities in the region, it said in a statement.
Critics fear that recognizing the pro-Russian governments in eastern Ukraine is a step toward Putin’s government declaring the disputed regions independent states.
Ceasefire violations in Eastern Ukraine have been significantly reduced since the new truce took effect at 12 a.m local time Monday, but “ingredients of further flare-up” remain, Alexander Hug, Chief Monitor of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine told CNN.
“Since midnight, we have seen them significantly reduced, and we have only seen up until now small arms fire in the Donetsk region, that is promising,” Hug said by phone from Kiev.
“However, heavy weapons remain on both sides of the contact area where they shouldn’t be, and positions of the Ukrainian armed forces and the formations on the other side are far too close to one another — ingredients of further flare-up,” he added.
Executive order criticized
Ukraine’s Secretary of National Security and Defense, Oleksandr Turchynov, said Saturday that the order was the death-knell for the beleaguered Minsk agreement, the framework for peace in the region since pro-Russian militants occupied areas of eastern Ukraine in 2014.
“By signing this decree, Putin legally recognized quasi-terrorist groups that have this as a fig leaf covering the Russian occupation of Donbass,” he said.
The move by the Kremlin “completely negates the Minsk process and states Russia’s exit,” he said
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko slammed Putin’s order.
“For me, it is another evidence of Russian occupation and violation of international law. It is very symbolic and cynical that it happened during the Munich Security Conference,” he said in a statement, referring to a meeting of high-level European and American officials in Germany last week.
Ceasefire on knife-edge
Eastern Ukraine has seen a spike in violence in recent months between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian armed forces as efforts to enforce previous ceasefires in the three-year-old conflict have failed.
Lavrov called it positive that the foreign ministers “agreed once again for the state of a ceasefire on February 20.”
He said the agreement also concerns “the start of the withdrawal of heavy arms” in eastern Ukraine, a key element in the agreement
Prior to the announcement of the executive order, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said that he was “not at all” happy with the result of talks with Germany, France and Russia in Munich.
OSCE Secretary-General Lamberto Zannier said in an interview that Putin’s executive order would hurt the chances of the ceasefire to take hold.
“The steps taken last night by Russia to recognize these documents are making implementation (of the ceasefire) more difficult,” he told Radio Free Europe.
What is the Minsk agreement?
The Minsk agreement, which was negotiated in 2014 but never fully implemented, is the framework for peace in the region following the occupation of pre-Russian separatists in Crimea.
It called for the “bilateral cessation of the use of all weapons,” and the decentralization of power in the region “with respect to the temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions.”
At the time Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk spoke with guarded optimism about the deal.
“We had just two options: bad, and worse,” he said. “So we decided at this particular period of time to get the bad option. Probably this option will save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, and I hope this option will save lives of Ukrainian civilians, of innocent people, who are under a constant shelling of Russian-led terrorists.
“It’s better to have this new deal rather than not to have (it). But we do not trust any words or any papers. We are to trust only actions and deeds,” he said.
US: We’ll hold Russia accountable
Vice-President Mike Pence sought to reassure European allies as to the US’ commitment to NATO and other administration officials’ insistence that the lifting of sanctions against Russia are tied to Russia’s withdrawal from Crimea.
Speaking during a security summit in Germany, where leaders are eagerly looking for clues about how the new US administration will broach Russia’s persistent challenges to international law, Pence told world leaders Saturday that the United States will stand firm against Moscow while also seeking avenues for cooperation.
“Know this: the United States will continue to hold Russia accountable, even as we search for new common ground, which as you know, President Trump believes can be found,” Pence said during remarks at the Munich Security Conference, the first major foreign policy address of the Trump administration.
But his trip to Munich last week coincides with widespread mistrust of the new US administration in Europe.
The continent’s leaders are eying Trump with skepticism — few believed he could win November’s election and made little attempt to mask their disregard for the billionaire real estate developer as he plodded forward with his unorthodox campaign.
The frenetic first month of Trump’s presidency has only deepened European leaders’ concerns. Michael Flynn’s resignation this week led to some optimism among Western diplomats who had been chagrined about the former national security adviser’s desire to establish closer ties to Moscow. But widespread uncertainty about what steps Trump may take to begin cooperating with Russian President Vladimir Putin remains.
Outspoken Russian lawmaker Alexey Pushkov weighed in Sunday, interpreting the executive order as a response to the tough words that US Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of Defense James Mattis have had for Russia in recent days.
“With the recognition of passports to Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics, Moscow lets everybody know that pressure on the Ukrainian question (the speech by VP Pence in Munich) won’t give any results,” Pushkov tweeted.