China has condemned North Korea’s test of a reportedly new missile more than 24 hours after news of the launch broke.
“China opposes North Korea’s launch activities that are in violation of relevant UNSC resolutions. Under current circumstances, relevant sides should not provoke each other or take actions that would escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press briefing Monday.
North Korea fired the Pukguksong-2 missile, a previously unpublicized part of its arsenal, according to state media. It’s a nuclear-capable, intermediate range ballistic missile — which typically travel from 3,000 to 5,500 kilometers (1,864 to 3,417 miles).
A US official said the missile traveled 500 kilometers (310 miles) before landing in the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, and that it was launched from North Pyongan province.
A rocky relationship
North Korea’s relationship with China — its most important strategic partner — has kept Pyongyang afloat as sanctions have crippled and isolated it from the rest of the world.
But in recent years, China has taken a tougher line on the North Korean nuclear program, voting in favor of UN Security Council sanctions and issuing condemnations when it conducts provocative military tests.
China usually responds to North Korea’s nuclear tests with a quick condemnation, but when it comes to missile tests, it depends on the type of missile and how the test was conducted, says Tong Zhao, an associate at the Carnegie Tsinghua Center for Global Policy.
China might see this test as an attempt by North Korea to elicit a response from the new US administration in order to better understand its policy toward Pyongyang, he said.
“China might not interpret it (the Sunday test) as a provocation, but a call for attention,” Zhao told CNN. “Clearly North Korea has been waiting for this new administration to reach out to North Korea.”
That view likely will influence the way China responds to the Sunday launch — the first since US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
“Fundamentally, from the Chinese perspective, we need to create a situation where the nuclear weapons will be removed from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and from the Korean peninsula,” said Victor Gao, a Chinese international relations expert and former translator to late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.
“But on the other hand, the fundamental concerns of the government of the DPRK about its own survival should also be well taken care of.”
Gao’s last point — that the concerns about the survival of Kim Jong Un’s regime should be respected — is perhaps the most important difference in the way China and the United States deal with the looming threat of a nuclear North Korea.
Kim might not be China’s favorite neighbor, but analysts say it’s a case of the devil you know versus the devil you don’t.
“They’re worried about a much more strategic issue, which is if South Korea is the successor state, if US troops are up on the Chinese border, it’s a terrible defeat for China and victory for the US,” said former US Ambassador to South Korea Christopher Hill.
“I know the Chinese worry that somehow the US will take strategic advantage of it.”
The isolation option
China and the US are divided on what to do over North Korea.
Both countries are in favor of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula, but Trump has said publicly that China isn’t doing enough to deter Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.
Japan also called Monday for China to take a stronger line on North Korea.
“We believe the role of China, that is the permanent member of United Nations Security Council and the chairman of the six-party talks, and holds 90% of North Korea’s trade, is extremely significant,” said Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga.
“Japan has been requesting constructive action from China as a responsible permanent member of the UN Security Council and would like to continue to work on them firmly. We also would like ask them to work on North Korea’s self-restraint on provocation and strict adherence to the UN resolutions.”
“If China wanted to, it could certainly cut off flows of oil and it could cut off purchases of coal — all sorts of things to really undermine the North Korean economy. But it hasn’t done that,” Gordon Chang, a columnist at the Daily Beast, told CNN.
China is North Korea’s biggest trading partner and provides the country — and its people — with much of their food and power.
Cutting those off may hurt regular people more than Kim.
“You walk a fine line between how many sanctions will affect the government versus how many sanctions will cause a humanitarian crisis and affect the millions of people that live in North Korea,” said retired US Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling.
There’s also a political imperative for not going too hard on sanctions — if they hit regular people hard, they could provoke a mass uprising and potentially push Kim out of power — something China fears.
Relationship with China
The youngest Kim has been much more of a thorn in China’s side than his father or grandfather.
“Kim Jong Il appeared to care what the Chinese thought. He would hold back on these kinds of things. And frankly he had some sort of interest in the negotiating process,” said Hill.
“There is no sign whatsoever that his son, Kim Jong Un, first of all cares what the Chinese think — let alone what we think — nor has he at all expressed any interest in negotiation.”
Kim, for his part, has shown much less deference to China’s wishes.
The country fired off three ballistic missiles in September as China was hosting its first G20 summit. It was an event Beijing meticulously planned for — shutting down factories, paying locals to leave and tightening security — so that the event would go off without a hitch.
It’s nuclear test in January 2016 drew the ire of the Chinese as well; former CNN Beijing bureau chief Mike Chinoy called it “a real slap in the face” to the Chinese.
The THAAD angle
For South Korea and the United States, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system is key to stop an incoming North Korean nuke.
China sees the system more provocatively — they worry the system will be used to track their missiles and help the US geopolitically contain China, a potential rising adversary.
That sentiment could be even stronger if the North Korean regime were to fall and reunite with the South — making it possible that US troops would end up right on China’s border.
An editorial in the provocative state-run Chinese tabloid Global Times, which often takes a harder line than official Chinese policy, predicted that the US and South Korea would use the launch as a way to speed up THAAD’s deployment.
“Pyongyang’s persistence in launching missiles will further provide an excuse to accelerate Washington and Seoul’s pace to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system in South Korea, which damages China’s strategic interests,” the editorial said.
Zhao of the Carnegie Tsinghua Center says China sees the North’s missile tests through the broader lens of overall US-China relations.
“China believes that the US is doing everything to contain China, the potential strategic value of North Korea will increase — in that case China will have less incentives to pressure North Korea.”