It has been hard to remain optimistic about peace as Syrian civilians have died, been displaced or had their homes destroyed in this man-made, unnatural disaster. What began as peaceful protests for democracy were crushed by a dictator.
The actions and inactions of powerful international actors has made Syria an arena for their proxy wars and enabled Islamist terrorist groups to flourish. Readers could be forgiven for thinking that there is no hope, especially given the catastrophe in Aleppo.
Yet a credible path to a meaningful, enduring peace exists and is perhaps more viable now, in light of Donald Trump’s election.
The Syria’s Tomorrow Movement, which I helped found earlier this year, advocates a different strategy to that of the official opposition, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC). We are led by former SNC President Ahmed Jarba and share the SNC’s objectives of a transition away from dictatorship towards a pluralistic, democratic Syria. But we differ in that we believe these long-term ideals can only be achieved through hard-headed realism that accepts the prevailing geostrategic situation and the facts on the ground.
The status quo is the result of a litany of failure on all sides. The opposition failed to form coherent political and military institutions and to separate itself from the Al Nusra Front.
Bashar al-Assad failed to pursue politics, choosing instead the response of dictators down the ages: a brutal war against his own people.
Regional countries failed to establish a coordinated strategy to help the opposition, instead competing with one another, leading to the fracturing of opposition groups.
The West failed to adopt a successful strategy to achieve democratic change in Damascus and the protection of civilians.
Iran and Russia failed in their attempts to enable Assad to consolidate his power over most of the country, to fight terrorists and in doing so made many Syrians their enemy. The victims of these failures are in refugee camps or worse, graves.
If we don’t learn lessons of the past, the future will continue to be terrible, as Aleppo shows. The ceasefire brokered by the US and Russia is all but dead and the actors are continuing to play out their typecast roles. President François Hollande of France threatens Russian President Vladimir Putin with having to “pay” at the International Criminal Court, while a former British Cabinet Minister suggests that Western forces should enforce a no-fly zone and be willing to confront Russian warplanes.
We all know that the West will not — and should not — risk a war with Russia over its concerns for Syrian civilians. Given this reality, if each party continues to read from their blood-soaked scripts, Syria will continue to be the tragic arena within which Russia and the West continue their cold war.
The Syria’s Tomorrow Movement believes that the only credible way to escape this vortex is for Russia and the US to reach an agreement. While the two sides may seem diametrically opposed, their demands of one another are bridgeable. Russia repeatedly urges the US to help separate the terrorist groups, as defined by the UN Security Council, from the moderate opposition. Meanwhile, the Americans insist that Russia adheres to its commitments to put pressure on Assad to cease bombing and besieging civilian areas and to accept political transition.
The election of Donald Trump makes such an agreement more likely, given his emerging policy agenda of rapprochement with Russia, a focus on the destruction of ISIL, hostility towards Iran and hints that he may drop support for moderate groups because the present policy risks US conflict with Russia and Assad at a time when they are fighting ISIL.
Caution is needed, however, as Trump appears to have accepted the false propaganda of Assad and his international allies that they are only targeting ISIS. Nor will his pulling of support for moderate fighters or doubling down on ISIS end the war, as Syrians will continue to resist until the root causes of their grievances is solved.
Any future Syria agreement must therefore be comprehensive, rather than focused solely terrorism. It must end conditions that have enabled terrorists to infiltrate and a dictatorship to persist. It must solve the political issues or result in the continuing anger and frustration that fuels extremism.
Despite the quagmire, there is already much international agreement, most importantly around the Geneva Communiqué, brokered by Russia and the US in 2012, which sets out a road map for political transition. While the destination remains distant, practical steps can be taken to clear the blockages along the path to peace.
We in the Syria’s Tomorrow Movement are doing what we can in this regard: we have held talks with the Russian government, the Americans and others. We believe in dialogue between Syrians rather than endless war. During two rounds of Geneva negotiations, we saw that Assad’s sole aim is a decisive military victory.
Sections of society still regard Assad as protecting them despite the growing death toll among their young men. We should engage with their representatives who may be interested in national reconciliation to move power away from Assad. We have publicly stated that the moderate opposition should end completely any alliance or contact with Al Nusra Front and accept UN Syria Envoy Staffan de Mistura’s plan for Nusra to leave Aleppo.
Were this and other steps to happen, an epoch-changing joint Russian-US plan on political transition might be more achievable. To be acceptable to all concerned, any eventual deal must comprise a ceasefire, an end to dictatorship, a transition towards democracy, rule of law and human rights, the expulsion of extremists such as al Qaeda and Iran’s Shia militias and the military defeat of ISIS.
This might be an impossible deal, but the fact that the White House will soon be occupied by the author of “The Art Of The Deal” is cause for optimism. We must do all we can to create the conditions for this to happen, by working within the realms of reality and learning from the mistakes of the past.