Barack Obama will probably leave office on a high. His weekly average approval rating now stands at 54%. Given the state of the economy and America’s troubles overseas, the likely explanation is that voters are contrasting him favorably with the election candidates.
One legacy of Donald Trump might be to give Obama a better legacy — a reminder of the calmer, simpler time that we all lived in 18 months ago.
Of course, most presidents enjoy a bump in their final few weeks. Obama’s is relatively small. Ronald Reagan stood at 63% despite Iran-Contra. Bill Clinton stood at 66% despite Monica Lewinsky. In their last year they become politically lame and thus — almost — apolitical.
Yes, Obama has been campaigning hard for Hillary Clinton. But he’s also chilled on TV with Jimmy Kimmel and Stephen Colbert and launched a nonpartisan and rather dazzling plan to reach Mars by the 2030s. He has finally come out as a Vulcan, as his moving tribute to the late Leonard Nimoy showed.
Nevertheless, it’s a surprise that Obama can get a positive approval rating at all. Cities have been aflame. Obamacare, the President’s signature reform, is broadly disliked. Unemployment is low, but so is the labor force participation rate, indicating that many have stopped looking for work. Growth is sluggish; there are signs of a slowdown. Income inequality is a major issue.
Trump has highlighted the loss of manufacturing jobs to foreign countries. And it’s overseas that US troubles really appear stark. Chaos in Syria and Iraq has been exploited by Russia as part of a struggle for global authority that many fear America is losing. Many also feel the United States has gone soft on Iran. And a spate of terror attacks this year exposed how vulnerable the country remains 15 years after the collapse of the World Trade Center.
There’s also a case for saying that Obama accelerated the fracturing of American politics and the decline in mutual respect — that he, in some small way, helped create Clinton vs. Trump.
Republicans complained he refused to work with them in Congress during his first term, and while one cannot really blame him for being a magnet for right-wing angst, his partisan style encouraged the Tea Party revolt that polarized the nation.
The culture wars featured heavily in his 2012 re-election battle. Conservatives believe he played the liberal Nixon, splitting the country in two on same-sex marriage and abortion, and taking the larger half.
He was the target of vicious Republican attacks in that election, no one would deny. But by labeling Mitt Romney — a self-evidently decent and rather moderate man — as a wicked rich guy, Obama’s campaign contributed to the oratorical weaponization of US politics.
In a world where Romney can be painted as an extremist, Trump’s sins suddenly become normal. Just as repeated onscreen violence blunts the audience’s reactions to it, so dirty campaigning in 2012 left many voters immune to slander and demagoguery.
But Obama never personally raised his voice. His approach to politics is cool, logical and — this is crucial — never an embarrassment to the republic. It’s a very low bar to note that he never was caught on tape saying that he loves kissing women and grabbing them and, hey, they never seem to say stop. But that’s where the bar has been set — and Obama floats elegantly above it.
I do not write this as a conservative going soft on the President. He has contributed to the decline of America, and I’ve detailed why many times before. But he does have two qualities that voters will find absent from this campaign.
He certainly beats Trump for intellectualism. Obama is not only intelligent but thoughtful — he clearly has a deep interior life and a preference for reason over instinct. It has been a pleasure to have a President who sounds like he’s thought about what he’s talking about.
Second, Obama has a ring of authenticity that contrasts strongly with Clinton. His is a liberalism fostered by personal experience. Experience of being an outsider due to his race, of some knowledge of poverty and of the trial of not really knowing his father.
Few presidents have been so nakedly autobiographical: The first time Americans encountered Obama on the national stage was through a frank memoir. And the rancorous debate about Obama’s background — though ugly and silly — actually was emotionally affecting.
Few of us come from perfect families. A president, like Bill Clinton, with some knowledge of pain is no bad thing.
The election in 2008 offered a divisive but high-quality choice to the American people. Obama was the best of his generation of liberals. John McCain was the most honorable man among conservatives. I’d rather America had gone for the soldier over the community organizer — but the primary process probably had done its work well. This time around, the choice of Trump and Hillary Clinton betrays partisan militancy in one case and the power of archaic party machinery in the other.
Trump often asserts that he’ll win because polls show that folks don’t approve of the direction of the country. What he fails to realize is that voters aren’t only registering dissatisfaction with Obama’s record — they are also disgusted with this campaign. As we slouch toward November 8, the President’s approval rating may rise even further. Contrasted with his potential replacements he sounds … well, presidential.