The prospect of election night drama seems to dwindle with each new round of polling. But Donald Trump, perhaps trying to author a campaign cliffhanger, is determined to provide Americans with at least a measure of “suspense” on November 8.
During the third presidential debate, and in speeches and tweets before and after, the Republican nominee has repeatedly hinted, if not outright declared, that he has no intention of conceding a lost race to Hillary Clinton.
“I will look at it at the time,” was Trump’s debate response last week when moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News asked if he would, come what may, “absolutely accept the result of this election.”
Wallace tried a second and third time in that exchange, temporarily playing civics teach and reminding the candidate of the virtues of a “peaceful transition of power,” before Trump put the question to bed.
“I will tell you at the time,” Trump said again. “I’ll keep you in suspense.”
But the reality here, to steal a line from The Sopranos, is that the Trump campaign’s end — no matter how or when it arrives — “won’t be cinematic.”
Rick Hasen, a University of California-Irvine professor who runs the popular Election Law Blog, said that while Trump is already undermining “part of the fabric of our society” with his comments, the knock-on effects are likely to be more mundane.
“At the extreme, his claims could encourage his supporters to take to the streets, perhaps to even to engage in violence,” Hasen told CNN. “More likely though it will become a rallying cry to try to delegitimize the Clinton presidency before it even begins. And to make it harder for her to pursue her agenda.”
Barring a remarkable turnaround — “Brexit plus” or “Brexit times five” as Trump put it last Friday — Americans will begin their post-election Wednesday with a President-elect Clinton on the horizon. Whether her opponent sees fit to, well, concede the point is mostly immaterial.
There are, of course, potentially legitimate detours, should the vote count be tighter than expected.
“Forty-three states permit a losing candidate, a voter, a group of voters or other concerned parties to petition for a recount,” according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Nearly half of those, along with the District of Columbia, carry a “trigger margin” that, if hit, automatically sets a new count into motion.
The 2000 recount in Florida, which was eventually halted by the Supreme Court in response to a Republican challenge, began not — as the Trump campaign has suggested — at the behest of a litigious and sour Al Gore, but in accordance with the state’s predetermined rules for sorting such a narrow vote.
In a cosmic twist, a recalcitrant Trump’s hopes would likely fall into the hands Republican leaders in Congress. Absent Trump (or those street riots), House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest-ranking GOP elected official, would probably be looked upon first to offer a concession in his candidate’s stead, a sticky situation that could also ensnare Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
How so? Ultimately, the identity of the new president will be certified by the House and Senate, where electoral votes are traditionally delivered in early January, and formally signed off on by the Senate President — in this case, Vice President Joe Biden. Gore, like Richard Nixon four decades earlier, literally sealed his own fate.
Trump’s will likely be settled way before then, but even if the 2016 drama bleeds into next year, it’s unlikely to turn on what he says — or doesn’t say.