Syrian opposition groups have accused President Bashar al-Assad’s regime of preparing to breach a fragile, week-old ceasefire by transferring hundreds of people from the besieged al-Waer neighborhood in Homs to rebel-held Idlib province.
A Syrian state TV correspondent in Homs reported that ambulances and Syrian Red Crescent vehicles were on standby to transfer 300 to 500 people, including wounded armed men, their families and residents in critical medical condition.
This would be the third phase of what Syrian state media says is a reconciliation agreement from December but what the opposition refers to as a “starve and surrender” policy that has been in enacted in 14 areas besieged by the regime.
A joint declaration released by the Syrian opposition Monday warned that if the regime continued forced relocations “then the regime will have ended its adherence to any proposed ceasefire in a glaring fashion, and all revolutionary armed groups will resume exercising their legitimate rights to defend civilians from the regime’s aggressions.
“The Assad regime and their allies have transformed forced sectarian cleansing into a clear and systematic policy that deprives civilians of their livelihoods, starves them to death, and then pushes them into ‘agreeing’ to leave their homes and neighborhoods.”
Crucially, the first phases of the reconciliation agreement focused on clearing the neighborhood of all arms and gunmen in coordination with agencies, including the Syrian Arab Red Crescent.
In December, Homs Gov. Talal al-Barazi told Syrian state media that all weapons, except those held by the Syrian Arab Army, would be cleared and that “all state institutions will go back to work in the neighborhood including the police and the security apparatus.”
Fragile ceasefire
The move comes seven days after a fragile ceasefire came into effect in Syria, but tensions between its main architects — Moscow and Washington — are obscuring any prospect of a more lasting peace.
The latest ceasefire has offered some respite from violence in the civil war, which has killed an estimated 430,000 people since 2011 and touched off an international refugee crisis.
But there have been numerous reports of violations, and both the Russians and Americans have said the other party is not fulfilling its obligations.
It is unclear how much longer the ceasefire will continue beyond its last agreed extension to 11:59 p.m. local time Sunday (4:59 p.m. ET).
Speaking Monday, Secretary of State John Kerry, told reporters that the “basic ceasefire is holding but fragile.”
Kerry, who was in the Vatican to hold talks with his counterpart for the Holy See Pietro Parolin, added: “Humanitarian assistance is moving today to some eight different locations. But we’re waiting to get the full download from our team that is meeting now with the Russians in Geneva.
“That process is continuing and we’ll see where we are in the course of the day,” he said.
Warplanes made multiple attacks against rebel strongholds in eastern Aleppo Sunday, leaving at least one woman dead and many people wounded, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The SOHR said it was not known who conducted the strikes, which were the first in Aleppo since the ceasefire took effect last Monday.
The attack came a day after strikes by the US-led coalition mistakenly killed dozens of Syrian government troops, prompting a diplomatic firestorm.
‘Pained and disappointed’
The main focus of the ceasefire was to allow humanitarian aid to reach the Syrian people. But a week after it began, desperate populations in besieged areas have yet to receive this aid, which has been held up on the Turkish border as humanitarian agencies await guarantees of safety from the warring parties.
The UN Undersecretary for Humanitarian affairs and Emergency Relief, Stephen O’Brien, said “humanitarian aid must remain neutral, impartial and free of political and military agendas.”
“I am pained and disappointed that a United Nations convoy has yet to cross into Syria from Turkey, and safely reach eastern Aleppo, where up to 275,000 people remain trapped without food, water, proper shelter or medical care,” O’Brien said in a statement Monday.
“Today’s 20-truck convoy would have been the first of two that would have carried flour and other food supplies, enough to feed some 185,000 people for one month.”
O’Brien said eastern Aleppo had not received aid since early July.
“The people of Syria have suffered long enough. Millions of Syrian civilians continue to face horrific deprivation and violence, especially those trapped in besieged and hard-to-reach areas,” he said.
Once humanitarian relief arrives, the Russians and Americans are supposed to set up a Joint Implementation Center for cooperation on military operations targeting terror groups including Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham, the former al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, and ISIS.
The Syrian government then would be barred from conducting air operations in those areas.
But if that cooperation falls apart, a whole new set of problems could confront the United States, according to CNN military analyst, retired Lt. Col. Rick Francona.
“We’re going to be revealing sources and methods — there’s no way to get around that,” Francona said last week.
“They’ll be able to see where we believe — and where we will know — that those opposition groups that are allied with the United States are, because we’re going to put them on a ‘do not bomb’ list. But I guarantee you … that list is going to Damascus very, very quickly. And if this agreement fails, the Syrian air force will know where to go to kill all of those rebels that we’ve been supporting.”
Diplomatic firestorm
However, Saturday’s coalition strikes near Deir Ezzor Airport — in a part of eastern Syria not covered by the ceasefire — sparked a furious row between the US and Russian ambassadors to the United Nations outside an emergency Security Council meeting called on the matter.
The Russian military said 62 Syrian soldiers were killed, according to state media, while the SOHR put the death toll at 83, with at least 120 soldiers wounded.
The US has expressed regret for the strikes, saying that they were intended to target ISIS militants and that if they struck Syrian troops it was accidental. Australia says its planes were among the international aircraft involved in the operation and has expressed condolences to the victims’ families.
On Monday, a spokesman for the UK Ministry of Defense confirmed its planes were involved in the strikes, saying, “We can confirm that the UK participated in the recent coalition air strike in Syria, south of Dayr az Zawr on Saturday, and we are fully cooperating with the coalition investigation. The UK would not intentionally target Syrian military units. It would not be appropriate to comment further at this stage.”
Russia and Syria said the strikes prove Washington and its allies are sympathetic to ISIS, which they say was able to briefly capture a Syrian position in the wake of the coalition attack.
Coordinating strikes
A statement from US Central Command said the coalition conferred with the Russian military before the strike.
“The coalition airstrike was halted immediately when coalition officials were informed by Russian officials that it was possible the personnel and vehicles targeted were part of the Syrian military,” US Central Command said.
But Russia blamed the United States for failing to coordinate with them on Saturday’s airstrikes, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman told Sputnik news agency.
Bouthaina Shaaban, a political and media adviser to Assad, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that Syria is adhering to the truce and the US should start cooperating.
“I ask the United States, if they truly mean to target terrorists, where is the problem in coordinating their efforts with Russia, with the Syrian-Arab army, with anyone who is targeting terrorists?” asked Shaaban.
CNN analyst retired Lt. Col. Francona said Saturday the airstrike could have jeopardized the plan for Moscow and Washington to work together.
“This might put in danger this Joint Implementation Center that the US and the Russians are supposed to set up in the next few days to coordinate just these kinds of strikes against ISIS and to prevent just what happened,” he said.