The tenuous calm brought to Syria by a US and Russia ceasefire seems to be holding after an agreement by both parties to extend the deal for another 48 hours.
But aid convoys still haven’t been able to get humanitarian aid to those in need — a driving factor for establishing ceasefire in the first place. It’s also an important way to judge if the ceasefire is successful.
There have been a handful of violations on both sides, US State Department spokesman Mark Toner acknowledged.
And the Russian army announced Wednesday that its warplanes attacked and killed 250 ISIS militants.
250 ISIS fighters killed
The ceasefire deal, intended to bring humanitarian relief, calls for a halt to the violence between the Syrian regime and rebel forces.
But it does not cover militant groups considered terrorists, such as ISIS and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, formerly known as al Nusra Front.
Russia’s warplanes attacked a group of ISIS militants north of Palmyra, killing hundreds of terrorists, Viktor Poznikhir, the first deputy chief of the General Staff’s main operations directorate, told the media Wednesday.
The militants lost 250 men and 15 pickup trucks, Poznikhir said.
“The Russians are authorized to be striking those targets,” says Lt. Col. Rick Francona, a CNN military analyst. “That area is an ISIS stronghold and they’re going to have to clear that area out before anybody makes any move on Raqqa, especially from the south.”
It’s not clear if those strikes were carried out unilaterally or in coordination with the US.
Under the terms of the deal, if the peace holds for seven days, Russia and the United States will establish a framework for cooperation on military operations in Syria targeting terror groups.
Once that framework is established — it’s called the Joint Implementation Center, or JIC — the Syrian government will be barred from conducting air operations in areas where the JIC is active.
But if cooperation falls apart after the JIC is implemented, that could pose a whole new set of problems for the US, according to Francona.
“We’re going to be revealing sources and methods — there’s no way to get around that,” Francona said.
“They’ll be able to see where we believe — and where we will know — that those opposition groups that are allied with the United States are, because we’re going to put them on a ‘do not bomb’ list. But I guarantee you … that list is going to Damascus very, very quickly. And if this agreement fails, the Syrian Air Force will know where to go to kill all of those rebels that we’ve been supporting.”
The wait for aid
Aid convoys positioned at the Turkish border town of Cilvegozu are poised to enter the country to deliver food and medical aid to rebel-controlled Aleppo, as soon as it’s deemed safe.
The United Nations says as many as 275,000 people have been cut off from assistance there since early July.
“The convoy is ready and will move as soon as conditions allow,” said Jens Laerke, a spokesman for the UN humanitarian office.
Will the ceasefire last?
An activist with the opposition-aligned group Aleppo Media Center said people are hopeful this initiative will work, even though past agreements — including a different ceasefire also brokered by the US and Russia earlier this year — have fallen apart since the conflict began in 2011.
It’s the first time the United States and Russia have forged an agreement that “paves the way for humanitarian aid access” and a no-military zone for people to use the highway, the activist said.
“We are still optimistic this will happen, but no one knows,” he said. “But so far it’s been the best days seen since five-plus years ago. This is something promising. We shall wait and see what happens.”
Syria’s Foreign Ministry has said aid can only be delivered to Aleppo if it is coordinated through the government and United Nations — especially aid coming from Turkey.
No major violence
Nevertheless, the ceasefire appears to have led to a respite in violence in the five-year civil war that’s killed 430,000 people, according to one estimate, and touched off an international refugee crisis.
Staffan De Mistura, the UN’s special envoy for Syria, noted a “significant drop in violence” since the ceasefire went into effect Monday.
The situation remained mostly quiet in Aleppo, excluding a few incidents near the city, according to an Aleppo Media Center activist.