Syria: Will ceasefire hold in first 24 hours?

A nervous calm has descended on Syria on the first full day of an agreed ceasefire as an American- and Russian-brokered deal largely appears to have taken hold across the country.

Both the government and opposition groups reported sporadic incidents in the first few hours after the ceasefire took hold at sundown (11.45 a.m. ET) Monday. But the weapons eventually fell silent.

Residents of Aleppo, Idlib and Homs, accustomed to the buzz of regime military jets overhead, told CNN that the warplanes had vanished from the skies in the hours following the ceasefire, with only the occasional mortar to be heard.

Some observers said they believe the ceasefire’s efficacy will only become clearer as Tuesday progresses.

Humanitarian agencies are closely watching developments, poised to distribute much-needed aid to besieged areas, but say they are awaiting security guarantees to proceed with the delivery.

The ceasefire’s start coincides with the beginning of Eid al-Adha — a holiday that commemorates when Ibrahim (Abraham in the Old Testament) prepares to sacrifice his son as God commanded, but God intervenes and stops him at the last moment.

The Feast of the Sacrifice celebrates the value of human life. It begins after a weekend during which more than 90 people — including 28 children — were killed in airstrikes.

One monitoring group reports five violations occurred in and around Aleppo in the ceasefire’s first two hours, while state-run Syrian Arab News Agency said rebels were responsible for two violations in the city. CNN could not independently confirm the reports.

These types of violations are not uncommon, and it’s not necessarily a measure of success in a ceasefire since brief respites in violence can help get humanitarian aid to those who desperately need it.

The terms of the deal

The deal calls for a halt to the violence between the Syrian regime and rebel forces. It would also allow for much-needed humanitarian access to besieged cities such as Aleppo.

US Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday said while the start of the ceasefire looked good, “it is far too early to draw any definitive conclusions.”

Hours before the ceasefire started, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gave a defiant message to opposition forces.

“We have come here to give the message that the Syrian nation is determined to retake every piece of land from the terrorists, and to re-establish safety and security, to reconstruct and rebuild infrastructure and rebuild everything that has been destroyed,” he said in footage broadcast by SANA.

Assad’s family has ruled Syria for 45 years. He has often referred to opposition members seeking his ouster as terrorists.

Kerry: ‘This is less than perfect’

After previous ceasefire attempts failed, Kerry addressed criticism that the latest deal is flawed.

“Sure, this is less than perfect,” he said. “But flawed compared to what? Compared to nothing?

“This catastrophe developed step by step, folks, and it can only be reversed step by step. This is the best thing we could think of.”

The ceasefire gives an opportunity to provide humanitarian relief for hundreds of thousands of Syrians.

Red Cross spokeswoman Krista Armstrong said that “there hasn’t been a breakthrough in accessing new areas” as security had not yet been guaranteed.

She said supplies were in warehouses ready to be delivered to rebel-held east Aleppo and other besieged areas as soon as they were cleared to enter.

The United States and Russia previously coordinated a partial ceasefire in February. But human rights groups monitoring the situation reported airstrikes in the Aleppo region and near Raqqa, ISIS’ de facto capital, just days after the truce took effect.

Cities in ruins

Assad made his defiant remarks Monday during a symbolic visit to the former rebel stronghold of Daraya, a now-devastated Damascus suburb.

Daraya was under siege by the regime for years until a recent evacuation deal that allowed thousands of civilians and hundreds of rebel militants to leave, marking a major victory for Assad.

In June, activists said the regime pounded the area with barrel bombs hours after food was delivered there for the first time in nearly four years.

Fear also permeates Aleppo, Syria’s once-bustling cultural and economic center that has been largely reduced to rubble.

The Syrian civil war has killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced more than 5 million to flee the country, spawning an international refugee crisis.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group, estimates that up to 430,000 people have been killed in the conflict, although an accurate estimate is almost impossible to obtain.

The group says it has documented 301,781 deaths in Syria, from March 18, 2011, until September 12, 2016, when the latest truce went into effect. But the group’s founder, Rami Abdulrahman, said the actual number of deaths is closer to 430,000.

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