When the sun sets Monday over Syria, the country’s war-weary residents will be watching to see if the fighting will stop for a full 48 hours, in line with a hard-fought ceasefire brokered Friday by the US and Russia.
US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov have secured buy-in of the country’s recalcitrant leader, President Bashar al-Assad, as a key partner in seeking a halt to the bloody conflict that has plagued Syria since 2011.
Monday’s ceasefire represents a beginning of an at-least temporary let-up in the war, and a chance for some much-needed humanitarian relief for the hundreds of thousands of Syrians who have endured this five-year-old conflict.
But given the failures of the past, some Syrian groups say they are hesitant to embrace the truce agreement — that they are wary of any deal that doesn’t cover all besieged areas of the country.
Pessimism over ceasefire prospects
Before the ceasefire was scheduled to kick in at sundown — about 6:45 p.m. local time, or 11:45 a.m. ET — airstrikes continued to rain down Monday. At least seven people, including three children, were killed in airstrikes on rebel-held eastern Aleppo Monday, according to UK-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The latest assault followed the deaths of 93 people in airstrikes in Aleppo and Idlib over the weekend — 61 of them in an attack on a popular market where residents were shopping ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday. It appeared to be an intensification of bombardment in the wake of Friday’s ceasefire announcement.
Upticks in violence also have occurred before previous attempts to impose truces in the conflict.
An activist for the Aleppo Media Center — an opposition-affiliated activist group which works to document the conflict — said the airstrikes on Monday, the first day of Eid, did little to inspire confidence in the prospects for the ceasefire.
“We are not optimistic about this ceasefire,” he told CNN, as explosions rang out in the background.
“What the Assad regime is doing is dragging the opposition and Free Syrian Army to break the ceasefire later today. The Free Syrian Army already have a negative attitude towards this ceasefire,” he added.
Rebel ‘reservations’
Rebel groups have already voiced reservations about the ceasefire proposal, which comes as Assad appears to have the stronger position in the conflict.
Hardline Islamist rebel group Ahrar al-Sham attacked the terms of the deal Sunday, saying it would only strengthen Assad’s hand, while a representative of a Free Syrian Army (FSA) group called Fastaqim Union told CNN that it too had sent a message to the United States expressing concerns about the deal.
“We also have reservations about targeting (Islamist rebel group) Jabhat Fateh al-Sham because we think that targeting them will be in the favor of the regime. We don’t trust the regime and there are no actions that will be taken in case the regime violates the truce,” FSA representative Zakaria Malahfki said.
Kerry said the accord, announced after hours of talks in Geneva, would prevent Assad’s air force from flying combat missions anywhere the opposition is present, calling this provision the “bedrock of the agreement.” He labeled the Syrian Air Force the “main driver of civilian casualties” and migrant flows.
Malahfki added that he had not received a response from the US government. CNN has contacted US officials for comment.
Assad attends prayers in former rebel stronghold
In a symbolic move Monday, Assad attended Eid al-Adha prayers in the former rebel stronghold of Daraya.
Assad’s regime held Daraya under siege for years, until an evacuation deal just weeks ago allowed thousands of civilians and hundreds of rebel militants to leave the city.
Syrian state news agency SANA broadcast footage of the Syrian President and his entourage walking through the devastated streets of the suburb following prayers, sending a defiant message “to those who bet against Syria.”
“We have come here to give the message that the Syrian nation is determined to retake every piece of land from the terrorists, and to re-establish safety and security, to reconstruct and rebuild infrastructure and rebuild everything that has been destroyed,” he said.
An Aleppo Media Center activist in rebel-held east Aleppo said he read Assad’s symbolic presence in a formerly opposition-held area as a sign to “that this could be our fate someday.”
Bloody weekend
The worst strikes over the weekend were in Idlib, where at least 61 people were killed and more than 100 wounded in an attack that targeted a crowded market, an activist who witnessed the bombing and its aftermath told CNN.
The activist, who asked to be identified only as Omar for security reasons, said he was in Idlib to cover the atmosphere a day ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday. Omar took a detour to the city since the roads near the markets were closed as a security precaution, and that probably saved his life, he said.
“We heard a whistling sound then the explosions,” Omar said. “Two or three rockets landed in middle of the market.”
Omar said Syria Civil Defense teams couldn’t reach the site quickly because of the road closures. He said the field hospitals were overwhelmed.
Video from the scene showed White Helmet rescuers — the nickname for Syria Civil Defense volunteers — carefully squeezing beneath piles of stones to look for victims. Cries of “Allahu-Akbar” filled the air when the rescuers found a victim alive and pulled them out to safety.
‘Best option of all bad options’
After five years, Syrians are weary of a war that has left more than 250,000 dead and forced nearly 5 million to flee the country. But many activists and Syrians, especially those living in rebel-held areas, remain skeptical of the latest peace deal.
“It’s in the general interest of the Syrian people to stop the rivers of blood, and stopping bloodshed is the first step,” said one Syrian in Aleppo. “It’s a good step, but what’s the guarantee that it will remain in place?”
“This is the best option of all bad options,” said Fawaz Gerges, speaking to CNN’s Becky Anderson on Sunday. Gerges is the chair of contemporary Middle East studies at the London School of Economics, and the author of “Isis: A History.”
Gerges said the big question is whether the guns that are scheduled to fall silent Monday would remain silent in the weeks and months ahead.
“The reality is, where do you go from there?’ he said. “The reality is the balance of power favors Assad at this particular moment.”