It’s a big day for the U.S. economy and America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.
The Labor Department will publish the August jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. This employment report takes on extra importance because a Fed rate hike could be at stake.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney forecast that the economy added 175,000 jobs in August. That would be a solid gain but well below the momentum of June and July, when the economy added over 250,000 jobs in each month.
Fed officials have hinted recently that Friday’s jobs number will weigh on their decision whether to raise rates at their next meeting in late September.
Currently there’s a low chance of a Fed rate hike in September but some economists believe a strong number Friday could change the narrative.
“A strong report would justify and likely trigger a move,” says Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a research firm. “Unfortunately, I fear the report will disappoint this week.”
The August jobs report is historically weak. Sort of. On the first initial print, August has been the worst month for job gains since 2010. But the Labor Department revises each monthly figure twice once it collects more data.
After revisions, August is actually in the middle of the pack in terms of monthly job gains. But the Fed won’t see any revisions before its meeting in late September, meaning a strong number on Friday increases the odds of a rate hike.