A pair of crushing primary re-election victories — by Sens. Marco Rubio in Florida and John McCain in Arizona — show that Republican candidates can succeed in November without cozying up to their floundering standard-bearer, Donald Trump.
Both men succeeded by giving Trump a tepid, almost grudging endorsement — but refused to appear on the campaign stage with him or defend the billionaire’s controversial stands and statements. Keeping their distance from Trump allowed Rubio and McCain to play to their own strengths, relying on local issues and name recognition to pull off impressive wins.
Rubio beat his closest challenger, businessman Carlos Beruff, with 72% of the vote, carrying every county in Florida. McCain won with just under 52%, against a former state senator and Tea Party favorite named Kelli Ward, who got 39%.
And they both did it without accepting help from Trump or being seen with him — a smart way to appeal to conservative Republican voters who like Trump, but without alienating Latinos who are expected to turn out in big numbers in November.
So McCain is expected to avoid Trump’s high-profile speech on immigration in Arizona on Wednesday night. It would normally be an unthinkable breach of political etiquette for a local candidate to snub his presidential running mate that way.
But as McCain has candidly acknowledged, getting too close to Trump spells trouble for him.
“If Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket, here in Arizona, with over 30 percent of the vote being the Hispanic vote, no doubt that this may be the race of my life,” McCain said at a fund-raising event in May.
That’s putting it mildly. A recent national tracking poll suggests only 12% of Latino voters support Trump, which could cost McCain his seat. And while one recent poll in Arizona gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 1-point lead over Trump, hot on the heels of a CNN/ORC poll showing Trump with a thin 5-point lead — it’s in a state that Democratic presidential candidates have carried only once in the last 10 elections (the sole exception was in 1996, when Bill Clinton was running for re-election).
Republicans are supposed to win easily in Arizona. The fact that Trump is struggling gives McCain plenty of reasons to keep his distance.
Rubio is playing a similar game. He notably declined to appear in person at the Republican National Convention, delivering a videotaped endorsement. And while he hasn’t ruled out the idea of campaigning with Trump, Rubio has to be concerned about polls showing Clinton leading Trump in Florida.
Expect the high-wire act to continue all the way through November 8 as McCain, Rubio and other Republican Senate candidates try to run on the same ticket as Trump without incurring the expected wave of wrath from Latino voters.