Uzbek President Islam Karimov has been hospitalized after suffering a brain hemorrhage, according to the longtime strongman’s daughter, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva.
On Monday, she posted a family photo on her official Facebook page with an announcement about her father’s illness.
“My father was hospitalized after suffering a cerebral hemorrhage on Saturday morning, and is now receiving treatment in an intensive care unit. His condition is considered stable.
“At the moment it is too early to make any predictions about his future health. My only request to everyone is to refrain from any speculations, and show respect to our family’s right to privacy. I will be grateful to everyone who will support my father with prayers.”
The Uzbekistan presidency’s press service issued a statement Sunday on its website saying the 78-year-old “is currently hospitalized. According to experts, a full medical examination is necessary.”
What could happen next?
If Karimov is incapacitated or otherwise unable to continue in his role, it will be a “rocky road” to replace the longtime ruler, the only leader an independent Uzbekistan has ever known, said Andrey Kortunov, president of the New Eurasia Foundation.
Finding a compromise candidate would be the first order of business for Karimov’s inner circle, a group with disparate interests and opinions, he said.
Whatever arrangement is reached will be an interim transitional stage, he said, as there is “no master plan, no successor who has been endorsed and accepted by everybody (in the inner circle).
“If such a person existed, we would know about him. It will be a bumpy road, will take some time, (but) hopefully it can be resolved without clashes.”
However, Kortunov said he doesn’t think the country would be able to hold an open election in the event of Karimov dying or stepping down for health reasons. “I don’t see how they could do that right now,” he said.
But he said he is hopeful any eventual succession would be bloodless. “(The) establishment of Uzbekistan turns out to be quite coherent and united. The question is if they will be able to keep this once the current leader is gone.”
Reign began in Soviet era
Karimov became leader of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic in 1989, and in 1991 declared the independence of the Republic of Uzbekistan. He assumed office upon the country’s independence from the Soviet Union.
His mandate was extended for a further five years in 1995 by referendum, and he won re-election in 2000, 2007 and 2015. His current term is due to expire in 2020. Amnesty International has characterized the most recent election, which he won despite violating constitutional term limits, as lacking “genuine political competition.”
Uzbekistan is resource-rich and produces and exports oil, gas, gold and cotton, and Karimov has courted attention from both Russia and the United States, who see his regional influence as important.
Accusations of human rights abuse
Karimov’s government has frequently been accused of human rights abuses, including forced child labor, the killing of unarmed protesters in a 2005 massacre in the city of Andijan and even boiling protesters alive.
Human RIghts Watch calls the country’s human rights record “atrocious,” alleging that “thousands are imprisoned on politically-motivated charges. Torture is endemic in the criminal justice system. Authorities continue to crack down on civil society activists, opposition members, and journalists.”
Reporters Without Borders ranks Uzbekistan 166th out of 180 countries in terms of press freedom, noting that “Karimov subjects his country to the strictest censorship. No fewer than nine journalists are rotting in prison in the most abominable conditions.”
“Uzbekistan faces many uncertainties but one thing is sure — this 77-year-old ‘predator of press freedom’ will continue censoring and ruling with an iron hand until he breathes his last,” a 2015 Reporters Without Borders report said.