The upcoming debates are Donald Trump’s best (and likely last) chance to influence the course of this year’s presidential election. The three general election debates planned over the next two months are crucial — particularly for the candidate who is behind — because they give voters a chance to see both candidates in their own words, free from the influence of scripted television ads or staged campaign events. A strong performance by the underdog, such as Mitt Romney’s showing in the first debate against President Barack Obama in 2012, can force voters to take a second look at a candidate they may have written off and make the fall campaign competitive once more.
Because these debates have potential to impact the race, observers are rightfully curious about what Trump has done to prepare for them. After all, a disciplined and targeted debate prep process helped Romney win the first matchup four years ago, and could do the same for Trump.
Unfortunately, “disciplined” and “targeted” aren’t words that have often been used to describe Trump or his campaign to date. If he wants the campaign to be competitive, Trump doesn’t need to match Hillary Clinton word for word and policy for policy in the upcoming debates. But there are a few goals he should focus his preparation on:
1. Advancing the overarching strategic narrative of Clinton as untrustworthy and out-of-touch. Trump should understand that general election debates are, above all, an opportunity to draw an unflattering frame around your opponent. Each statement during the debate, as well as every exchange, should be focused on advancing the campaign’s strongest argument against Clinton. For Trump, the strategic frame is fairly obvious: Clinton cannot be trusted and doesn’t understand the needs of Americans across the country. To be successful, Trump should try to turn every answer and exchange during the debate back to this basic premise.
2. Understanding the Clinton record and highlighting just the facts. Clinton’s long record in the public spotlight may seem like an advantage, but Trump has to be prepared to exploit his opponent’s soft spots in a way that is both accurate and terse. Trump needs to spend his prep time familiarizing himself with the points that substantiate his characterization of “crooked Hillary.” Knowing her record is key because there is plenty of ammunition Trump can use to make his point. He could, for example, point to Clinton’s now discredited assertion that she did not disseminate classified information through her private email address. The trick for him will be to avoid conspiracy theories (such as those about Clinton’s health) or outright false statements. Clearly, Trump has lacked this kind of discipline to date. But such unforced errors during the debate will only give Clinton the ability to discredit him or muddy the waters regarding who is more trustworthy.
3. Demonstrating that he has policy solutions to address the problems Americans care about. No one expects Trump to become a wonk overnight, and the appeal of his candidacy to date has had little to do with his expertise on matters of policy. But the general election debates demand that a candidate possess an understanding of the policy challenges facing America and an ability to articulate solutions addressing them. A one-on-one debate over the course of 90 minutes will, at some point, require Trump to engage on matters of policy. He doesn’t need to be the world’s foremost expert on any policy area, but he should be able to show Americans he has a plan and demonstrate that his plan will improve their lives. This is particularly the case with respect to economic policy. Trump’s business background will be perceived by some voters as an advantage, while the economic anxiety being felt by many across the country places Clinton, as someone likely to continue Obama’s economic policies, at a disadvantage.
4. Arguing why Clinton’s solutions won’t work. Just as Trump needs to be familiar with his own plans, so, too, would he benefit from some familiarity with what Clinton’s policy proposals are. Here, again, Trump doesn’t need to understand chapter and verse about what Clinton is proposing. He just needs to be able to argue why her policies would result in damage to the American economy or America’s standing in the world. That also means characterizing them in a way that forces Clinton to play defense in areas where she has experience and is supposed to be strong, such as on foreign policy or health care.
5. Showing he has the temperament to be president. This is the toughest of the goals to prepare for, and arguably one that Trump simply cannot achieve. A recent survey conducted by Quinnipiac University found that 71% of likely voters do not believe he is “level headed.” In contrast, 62% of likely voters believe Clinton is. That encapsulates the challenge for Trump. During the first debate, in particular, Clinton will try to get under his skin and definitively demonstrate that he lacks the temperament and judgment to be president. Trump’s significant task is to weather the storm and make Americans believe he can be a commander in chief who won’t always be losing his cool.
With the first debate less than a month away, Trump has a lot of prep to do if he wants to be successful. And there’s good reason to be skeptical that this work will actually get done. But the good news for Trump and his campaign is that a strong debate performance can help the public envision him as presidential material and perhaps even make this election competitive again.