The sudden reorganization of Donald Trump’s campaign leadership is a long-overdue acknowledgement that the style and strategy Trump rode to victory in the Republican primary is killing the billionaire’s chances of winning the general election in November.
With multiple key political indicators pointing to a defeat — including sagging poll numbers in swing states, no money spent on television ads and his fellow Republicans’ reluctance to endorse him — a tune-up was in order.
The most important change is Trump’s wise decision to promote a senior advisor, Kellyanne Conway, to the pivotal position of campaign manager. Conway, trained as an attorney, has impeccable credentials as a strategist: She formerly worked with well-known political guru Richard Wirthlin (a top adviser to Ronald Reagan) and with Frank Luntz, a key strategist behind the creation of the Contract with America that helped Republicans capture control of the House of Representatives in 1994.
Steeped in what political pros call analytics — the art and science of discovering and interpreting the public mood — Conway branched out on her own as owner of The Polling Company. Earlier this cycle, she served as president of a SuperPac, Keep the Promise I, that helped Sen. Ted Cruz beat Trump in Iowa and other key states.
She is the kind of numbers-cruncher who rarely cites statistics but has a knack for explaining what they mean in plain language, and so is frequent guest on cable television. She even paired up with a Democratic pollster to write a book about the rising cultural and political power of women voters.
All that makes Conway the ideal person to explain to Trump when, how and why his message is misfiring with certain groups.
And there’s a lot of explaining to do these days.
Women are telling pollsters by sizable numbers that they want nothing to do with Trump. These include Republican women: Only 72% of GOP women say they favor Trump, compared with 93% who supported Mitt Romney in 2012 and 89% who backed Sen. John McCain in 2008. Job One for Conway will be to halt the slide among Republican women.
But an aggravating factor in doing that will be Trump’s reported decision to seek advice from Roger Ailes, the former Fox News chairman who was recently removed from the company amid lurid allegations of sexism and workplace harassment by as many as 20 women. Ailes may have deep, valuable experience in politics and media but is currently too toxic a figure to be anywhere in the vicinity of Trump.
The revamped Trump campaign will also have to make sure another new senior team member, Stephen Bannon, doesn’t end up doing more harm than good.
Bannon, executive chairman of Breitbart News, leads a news organization that has been accused of promoting inaccurate stories and excusing unethical behavior. Some of Trump’s worst moments have come when he has been factually off-base or overly combative.
If Bannon encourages those instincts, the Trump campaign may wind up with more trouble than even an experienced pro like Kellyanne Conway can fix.