Public opinion polls suggest a close race, but Hillary Clinton is crushing Donald Trump with a 34-point lead in CNN’s Political Prediction Market during the week of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
Clinton’s odds for the White House are at 67% while Trump’s odds are at 33%. Trump has climbed four points in the market since the first day of the RNC; Clinton was at 71% while Trump was at 27% at the beginning of the week.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market is an online game, administered by a company called Pivit, that functions like an online market and allows Internet users to predict the outcome of the 2016 election. It is not to be confused with polls from real voters.
At no point in the last two months have Trump’s odds been higher than Clinton’s, although her odds are nowhere near their all-time high. At one point in June, Clinton’s odds for the presidency were at 80% while Trump was at 18%. At Trump’s highest point at the beginning of June — after he emerged as the presumptive Republican nominee — he was at 43% while Clinton was at 57%.
Don’t confuse the odds in the political prediction market with the information in public opinion polls. In the latest CNN poll of polls before the RNC kicked off, Clinton was at 45% and Trump was at 41% in an average of results of the five most recent nationwide polls of presidential preference among registered voters.