With 40 games in, the baseball season is already one-fourth complete – and there have been plenty of surprises and disappointments. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest at the team level; next week, we’ll look at individual player surprises and disappointments.
TEAM SURPRISES
Boston’s offense: I expected SOME improvement from the Red Sox, but the way they are pounding the ball is quite impressive. As a team they are hitting .296, they have SIX regulars hitting .312 or better, they lead MLB in runs, doubles, average, and (perhaps most surprisingly) stolen base percentage. Boston is second with 31 steals, but they’ve only been caught THREE times! Now, they aren’t going to hit .296 all season, and I seriously doubt they end up with 900+ runs…but much of this production is coming from young, talented prospects finally ‘putting it together’, so I expect a lot of this to stick.
Tamps Bay’s power: Perhaps the most surprising thing I found; I ran a routing ‘HR leaders’ search and was absolutely STUNNED to see the Rays with the most homers. They still struggle to score; they are only batting .235 with a .305 on-base%, but they are hitting the longball more than anyone. No one player has crazy HR totals, but the Rays have NINE players with four or more dingers. Frankly, this is mostly a mirage; two of those players are hitting .188 or worse, and I don’t think a single player on this roster is likely to hit even 35 homers this year.
St. Louis offense: Maybe you’re not surprised – and maybe I shouldn’t be, since they always seem to find a way – but the Cards weren’t a great offensive team in 2015, and I saw no reason to think they’d be better this year. Combine the loss of Heyward to free agency, the loss of Peralta to injury, and the aging of players like Holliday and Molina and it seemed to add up to a down year in St. Louis. Instead, the Cards trail only the Red Sox in runs scored…Molina has bounced back, but it’s young guns like Steve Piscotty and (especially) Cuban rookie SS Aledmys Diaz who have spurred this rise. Now Diaz is batting .372 and I think we all realize that can’t last – and Molina’s average is completely empty, no power at all – so I do think they are a bit ‘over their heads’ as a group. However, they are pretty clearly better than I expected, and once again figure to battle the Bucs to the end for a wildcard in the Central.
Philly pitching: The bats are still awful – 29th out of 30 teams in most major categories, including runs – but the Phillies’ pitching has made huge strides already. The team ranks 11th in the majors in ERA, and the best news is that the kids are leading the charge. Starters Vince Velasquez and Aaron Nola have put up ace-level stats so far, and the back end of the bullpen has been outstanding as well. (As an aside – I said it in the spring previews, but it’s worth repeating – the Giles-for-Velasquez trade was an absolute STEAL for the Phillies. I have no clue why the Astros would have wanted that deal!) There are still holes – the back of the rotation is not so great – and they will definitely not sustain their winning ways all season. However, if the Phils can keep developing young talent, they might be contending again sooner than we expected.
Chicago pitching: Both the White Sox and Cubs have surprised many thus far. The Cubs, of course, were expected to score tons of runs – no surprise there – but their team ERA leads all of MLB at 2.68! Yeah, we all knew they had Arrieta, and Lester is good as well, but this was NOT projected to be a top pitching team. Not a single starter has an ERA over 3.51, and even when you look beyond ERA to walks, strikeouts and the like, only two middle relievers (Richard and Ramirez) have truly pitched poorly. But here’s the thing: the Cubs have allowed only 253 hits in 355 innings; the league is hitting just .200 off Cubs’ pitching! That’s astounding – and unsustainable. You can take it to the bank that the Cubs will allow more hits from here on in, and you can be pretty sure that when it’s all said and done, that team ERA will be closer to 3.5 than to 2.5. The Cubs are a great team, on track for a division title – but they definitely are not THIS good.
Neither are the White Sox, whose 3.19 team ERA leads the AL. Oh, some of this is legit – Chris Sale is somehow even better this year, with only 39 hits and 10 walks allowed in 68 innings, and Jose Quintana has been almost as good. Closer Dave Robertson is as good as they come as well. After that…it gets ugly in a hurry. Mat Latos has an awful strikeout rate, Carlos Rodon is walk- and homer-prone, and the rest of their bullpen is mediocre guys off to good starts. Sale and Quintana will keep them above average as a staff, but expect their team ERA to be a lot closer to 4.00 than 3.00 when the season ends.
TEAM DISAPPOINTMENTS
Yankees’ offense: I admit, I predicted a fall – but it’s been worse than I thought. The Yanks are hitting just .237, the power is down, and as a result they are 25th in MLB in runs scored. The biggest culprits are Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez…that part was actually very predictable. There just isn’t much hope with this roster, not on the hitting side at least. I still think they are saving up to make a huge run at Bryce Harper in two years…but until then, expect the Bronx Bombers to bomb quite a bit less than normal.
Kansas City offense: They are playing the same way – lots of contact, few walks, not a lot of power – but this year, the hits aren’t falling. An approach like that only works if the batting average stays high, but the Royals are batting just .253 as a team. Eric Hosmer has been great, but literally every other starter has underachieved – that’s actually good news; you have to figure that Gordon won’t hit .200 all year, and that Lorenzo Cain will find some power (he currently has five homers but only two doubles). This won’t be a GREAT offense – but then, they weren’t last year either. They will be better, but I’m not sure if they can be good enough for another playoff berth.
Houston pitching: This was the surprise team of 2015, and with a young core they were expected to contend this year. Instead, they got off to a dreadful start – mostly because they can’t get anyone out (4.56 ERA, 24th in MLB). The bullpen has been ok – although Giles has been awful – insult to injury considering what they gave up to get him (see above), but the real culprit has been the rotation. Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel made a living changing speeds and being precise last year – this year he’s walked 25 in 56 innings, and his ERA is 5.43. I’d bet that he’s hiding an injury – the walk spike is a great indicator of that – but whatever the cause, their ace has pitched like a bad #4/#5 starter and it’s killing their season. The rest of the rotation never projected as more than average; they aren’t even doing that well. As a team, they aren’t walking that many, but they’ve allowed 405 hits in less than 380 innings – most in the majors. They are better than that, so expect improvement, but much depends on Keuchel – if he’s hurt or has just ‘lost it’, this isn’t a contending team by any stretch.
Pittsburgh pitching: So many people were worried about losing Alvarez and Walker…that never concerned me. With Kang’s return and Polanco’s development, I was sure the Bucs would have a good offense – and they do; fifth in all of MLB with 200 runs scored. No, the problem was letting JA Happ go and not finding a suitable replacement, as well as expecting the bullpen to excel for a fourth straight season. The return for Walker (Jon Niese) was also underwhelming, as Niese was pretty bad in 2015 and has been no better than average throughout his career. Niese and Locke have been mediocre to awful; Nicasio has had some flashes of greatness, but lacks consistency; Liriano has struggled with his command. Only Gerit Cole has pitched well in the rotation – and only the dynamic duo of Watson and Melancon have looked good in the ‘pen (although Neftali Feliz has good peripheral numbers, despite a high ERA). Caminero, Hughes (seven walks in seven innings), Vogelsong, Lobstein…all bad so far. It all adds up to an ugly picture: The Bucs are 21st in team ERA, 22nd in strikeouts…but fifth in most walks, eighth in most homers allowed.
The good news? Liriano is showing signs of breaking out; if he doesn’t stick in the rotation, Nicasio should be dynamite in middle relief; and most of all, there are three young stud pitchers tearing up AAA right now. Jameson Taillon could be up literally any day – he’s the most polished of the group. Tyler Glasnow leads AAA in strikeouts, but he’ still walking too many – once he improves his command just a bit, he also should be up, and he has the best raw stuff. The most overlooked is Chad Kuhl – his stuff isn’t quite as good, but he’s allowed only 22 hits and nine walks in 39 innings. These three should all be up by midsummer – and while you expect one of them to struggle (it’s the nature of prospects, not all will pan out), it’s a good bet that one or two of them will represent a HUGE improvement.
Also, expect the front office to make some moves – the farm system is still loaded with prospects, while the major-league roster looks set for a few years now that Cervelli signed an extension. Expect some of those prospects to get moved to help the pitching as we get through June and July. This is still a team that can win the division – Chicago will slide back, but the Bucs’ pitching has to be able to take advantage.
Next week: individual player surprises/disappointments.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.