Mail-in votes will determine the outcome of Austria’s neck-and-neck presidential election, which could see Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer become the European Union’s first far-right head of state.
On Sunday evening, Hofer had received 51.9% of the vote, slightly ahead of rival Alexander Van der Bellen, an independent backed by the Greens, with 48.1%, according to Austria’s Interior Ministry.
The tight race means the outcome will be determined by more than 700,000 mail-in votes, which account for 14% of eligible voters, according to Austria’s national news agency APA.
Mail-in votes are being counted Monday, with a result not expected until later in the day.
Results showed Hofer, a trained aeronautical engineer, performing well in rural areas, while Van der Bellen, an economist, has received more support in urban areas.
Analysts have predicted mail-in votes will favor Van der Bellen — a former Green Party leader whose independent campaign is nonetheless being financially supported by the party.
But Hofer said he remained optimistic, APA reported. “I am still a little bit confident,” he told reporters.
Hofer secured 35% of the votes in the first round of voting last month, while Van der Bellen had 21%.
Centrists eliminated
Regardless of the outcome, the strong showing by the anti-immigration Freedom Party will send shockwaves through Austria’s political landscape, which has been traditionally dominated by two centrist parties, the left-leaning Social Democratic Party and conservative People’s Party.
The candidates backed by both parties were eliminated in the first round of voting this year, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the status quo.
Hofer’s Freedom Party has seen its stock rise, along with other European far-right parties, amid public concern over the migrant crisis — a key issue on the campaign trail.
By contrast, Van der Bellen — whose parents spent time in a refugee camp before settling in Austria — has championed liberal migration policies.
Jeremy Cliffe, political correspondent for The Economist, told CNN that public disillusionment with the centrist parties — seen as too “cozy” and “complacent” — combined with the migrant crisis, had resulted in a situation where the center was “really nowhere to be seen.”
“You’re left with this clash between quite a conventionally left-wing politician in Mr. Van der Bellen and a far-right politician, Mr. Hofer.”
Hofer seeking to transform role
Cliffe said the role of president in Austria has traditionally been largely ceremonial, a head of state with formal constitutional powers that by convention aren’t used.
But Hofer has indicated he wants a change, he said.
His party saw the presidential election as a springboard to greater things, such as winning the chancellorship — Austria’s head of government role, Cliffe said.
As president, Hofer would be able to dissolve the government’s term early and could work to undermine the conventional mainstream parties, he said.
“He could really influence the political future of Austria from what has traditionally been quite a ceremonial role,” Cliffe said.
Tough stance on migrants
Last month, Austria passed controversial new laws — among the toughest European responses to the migrant crisis — restricting the right of asylum.
The laws, which would allow authorities to turn away most migrants at the border if a state of emergency is invoked, reflected hardening attitudes toward migrants in Austria, which has been erecting security fences along its borders.
Primarily a transit point into Germany, the main destination for migrants into Europe, Austria nevertheless has been dealing with soaring numbers of asylum applications, with more than 88,000 lodged last year.
A Hofer victory would be hugely encouraging to other far-right parties across Europe, such as France’s National Front, the Danish People’s Party and Germany’s AFD, Cliffe said.
“If Mr. Hofer wins, it will really embolden them; it will make things seem possible that didn’t seem possible not so long ago,” he said.
The incumbent president, Heinz Fischer, is unable to run again after two terms in office.