Brazil’s senators are speaking through the night at the culmination of a congressional move to impeach President Dilma Rousseff — and a majority have indicated that they’ll vote to proceed.
Seventy-one of the chamber’s 81 senators are speaking in the house ahead of an electronic vote — which will take place when all have been heard. But of those speaking, at least 41 have declared themselves in favor of the proceedings, effectively sealing Rousseff’s fate.
The past few months have been a roller coaster for the embattled premier, who has been at the center of a battle for her impeachment, including procedural and legal appeals to annul the vote heard. But now the last avenue has closed, and the final vote is in front of the upper house of Brazil’s congress.
She could soon see herself sidelined this morning, if — or as is now likely, when — the senators vote to begin the impeachment process.
Such a decision would see Rousseff temporarily suspended from office, with Vice President Michel Temer assuming the presidency for the time that Rousseff would be obliged to step aside.
The Senate and its committees would continue to work normally during this period.
As the Senators put forward their views, protesters in the capital Brasilia and other cities demonstrated for and against the proceedings. Some, like the protest in front of Congress in Brasilia got out of hand, prompting authorities to disperse the crowds.
“It is revolting, we are here defending our democracy, and those yes-men spray us with tear gas, they are cowards,” one protester, Celma Pereira, a teacher, said.
15-minute soapbox
Senators were on the floor Wednesday evening outlining their positions on the issue. The speech-making continued early into the morning, with a vote likely Thursday.
The senators are each given 15 minutes to speak — so far they are indicating a strong leaning towards impeachment, with approximately a 3-to-1 margin speaking in favor, according to the country’s Globo newspaper.
Former president Fernando Collor de Mello, himself impeached by the senate in 1992, said that he feels the country has “regressed politically.”
His colleague Armando Monteiro said that the impeachment was politically motivated and will set a dangerous precedence.
“We will, indeed, be promoting a rupture in the nation’s institutional order.”
If and when the vote is decided against Rousseff — a simple majority is all that is needed — Rousseff will be forced to leave the country’s presidential palace for up to 180 days and face an impeachment trial.
Why is the motion against Rousseff being considered?
Corruption allegations have been dogging Rousseff’s administration since 2011.
A sweeping investigation into a multimillion-dollar kickback scheme at the state-run oil company Petrobras embroiled dozens of the country’s leading businessmen and politicians. While she isn’t accused directly of profiting, Rousseff was the chairwoman of Petrobras during many of the years of the alleged corruption.
In December, a bid to impeach Rousseff was launched by the then-speaker of the lower house of Congress, Eduardo Cunha, who argued that the president was guilty of breaking budgetary laws by borrowing from state banks to cover a shortfall in the deficit and pay for social programs in the run-up to her 2014 re-election.
She has been also blamed for the worst recession since the 1930s, now in its second year.
Senator Waldemir Moka told the upper house during his allotted time that, if the impeachment moves forward, the future president will assume a government with a 250 billion Brazilian Real debt ($72.5 bn) according to conservative projections, with the possibility of being up to 600 billion Real ($174 bn).
Olympic dreams shattered
A spell on the sidelines would put Rousseff out of commission when Brazil hosts the Olympics in August — a showcase event that she worked on since the beginning of the bid process — and leave her battling to save her political future and finish out her term.
When the investigation ends — which could be as late as November — the process would return to a special Senate committee.
At that point, Rousseff would have 20 days to present her case. Following that, the committee would vote on a final determination and then present it for a vote in the full Senate.
It will take a two-thirds majority to then remove the President from office.
Why is Brazil in such a mess?
Along with the parlous state of the Brazilian economy — the country faces a crippling recession that has left hundreds of thousands unemployed and thousands of businesses closed, while inflation has gone through the roof — the country faces a number of other, high-profile challenges, from dealing with the Zika virus to a fraught 2016 Olympics, which are due to open in Rio de Janeiro in August.
That’s if they even open — one doctor, Amir Attaran, of the University of Toronto, says the risk of the virus in the city is too great, and has urged authorities to postpone or relocate the showcase event in an effort to curb the spread of the epidemic.
Meanwhile, former Brazil soccer legend Rivaldo has said the country is getting “more ugly” and has warned visitors to “stay away,” citing the violence in the city.
Whatever happens, it is unlikely to be an entirely smooth process. Rousseff’s supporters have vowed to take to the streets in retaliation, ensuring a long, and potentially messy, battle ahead.