I always like to change things up a bit for my MLB previews – and most of our readers are NL fans – so we’re going to concentrate on the NL this year. Before that, however, I did want to run down my thoughts on the American League. I won’t look as in-depth at each team, but I will look at major roster changes and why I think the team will be better or worse than 2015. Honestly, while the NL is extremely polarized into ‘contenders’ and tankers’, the AL appears to have unusually high parity. I don’t see any truly awful teams, nor do I see any truly great teams.
We’ll start out west and work eastward:
AL WEST
Changes:
Texas (88-74 in 2015, +18 run differential)
ADDED Ian Desmond (SS, but will play LF for them).
LOST SP Yovani Gallardo, 1B Mike Napoli.
RETURNING FROM INJURY: SP Yu Darvish (expected in May)
Houston (86-76 in 2015, +111 run differential)
ADDED SP Doug Fister
LOST 1B Chris Carter, SP Scott Kazmir
LA Angels (85-77 in 2015, -14 run differential)
ADDED SS Andrelton Simmons, 3B Yunel Escobar
LOST C Chris Ianetta, SS Erick Aybar, 3B David Freese
Seattle (76-86 in 2015, -70 run differential)
ADDED C Chris Ianetta, 1B Adam Lind, LF Nori Aoki, CF Leonis Martin, SP Wade Miley, RP Steve Cishek, RP Joaquin Beniot
LOST 1B Mark Trumbo, various bullpen pieces
Oakland (68-94, -35 run differential in 2015)
ADDED 1B Yonder Alonso, 2B Jed Lowrie, LF Khris Davis
LOST 3B Brett Lawrie
Comments:
This division is kind of a mess. The Rangers made a miraculous late-season charge to win the division – but then basically stood pat. Given that they profiled more like a .500 team, are they really good enough to win again? They are really counting on Hamels and Darvish to keep them on top.
The Astros likewise made almost no major moves, which might bode ill – typically, young teams take a step back after a leap forward.
The Angels are basically Mike Trout and 24 other guys, they are wasting his prime and I don’t see that changing this season. They did improve their infield defense by acquiring Simmons.
Seattle is intriguing, they made a TON of moves – they have at least eight new faces on the roster, and should be improved.
Oakland appears to be in trouble again, they just don’t have any star power outside of Sonny Gray.
Outlook:
Let’s start with the bottom – I don’t think the A’s have close to the horses needed to compete in this division. I look for them to struggle again.
Anaheim likewise appears to be heading the wrong way – this is NOT a young team, after Trout most of their players are 28 or older. I just don’t see any offensive upside at all, and if Trout misses any time they are doomed.
As I mentioned, teams like Houston that make big ‘leaps’ tend to give back some of those gains the next season. The Cubs are susceptible to this as well, but the Cubs added some major pieces…while the Astros mainly ‘stood pat’. Fister for Kazmir is a wash at best, and it’s hard to expect Keuchel to dominate again. I look for this team to be .500 or a little better – but watch out in 2017-19.
I keep looking for the Seattle turnaround, and they keep letting me down. I see so much potential here, and I really like many of their moves (Lind, Aoki and Cishek in particular). They had a terrible bullpen in 2015, it won’t be top-notch in 2016 but it should be improved. I look for Seattle to contend for the playoffs.
Texas is my favorite almost by default – really, I can make a case for any of the top-3 teams. I just think that Darvish’s return, along with Hamels, gives them a 1-2 punch no one in the division can match. Offensively, much depends on Fielder and Choo sustaining their production – both had rebound seasons in 2015.
My predictions:
Texas 89-92 wins
Seattle 86-89 wins
Houston 80-82 wins
LAA 74-77 wins
Oakland 69-72 wins
AL CENTRAL
Changes:
Kansas City (95-67, +83 run differential in 2015)
ADDED SP Ian Kennedy, RP Joakim Soria
LOST RP Ryan Madson, RP Greg Holland (expected to miss season), IF/OF Ben Zobrist
Minnesota (83-79, -4 run differential in 2015)
ADDED 1B/DH Byung-Ho Park (Korean free agent)
LOST CF Aaron Hicks, RF Torii Hunter, SP Mike Pelfrey
Cleveland (81-80, +29 run differential in 2015)
ADDED 3B Juan Uribe, 1B Mike Napoli
LOST DH Ryan Rayburn
Chicago White Sox (76-86, -79 run differential in 2015)
ADDED C Alex Avila, 2B Brett Lawrie, 3B Todd Frazier, SS Jimmy Rollins, SP Mat Latos
LOST DH Adam LaRoche (retirement), SP Jeff Samardzija, SS Alexei Ramirez
Detroit (74-87, -114 run differential in 2015)
ADDED LF Justin Upton, SP Jordan Zimmermann, SP Mike Pelfrey, RP Francisco Rodriguez
LOST SP Alfredo Simon, RP Al Albuquerque, RP Mark Lowe
Comments:
KC isn’t messing with success – aside from adding Kennedy, this is essentially the same roster that won it all last year. I’ve missed low on them before, I certainly cannot blame them for believing in their ‘core’ at this point.
Minnesota looks a lot like they did last spring – promising offense, but the pitching just isn’t there. Their staff allowed the most hits, and recorded the fewest strikeouts, in the entire AL. That’s not a recipe for success in today’s strikeout-laden game. This is a team desperately in need of an ace to truly contend.
I’m still bullish on Cleveland – they had the run prevention of an 85-win team, and their pitching is rock-solid. They might have the best rotation in the league, in fact. The question is the offense – 11th in runs, 11th in slugging, they got on base but they didn’t have the ‘pop’ to drive in enough runs in 2015. Adding Uribe seems like a minor move, but 3B was a wasteland for the Tribe in 2015 so he’s likely to help. Almost the entire roster is 30 or younger, so I see upside here.
No one in the division made more changes than the White Sox – but those changes are decidedly a mixed bag. Frazier is a big upgrade and Lawrie still has potential – but Rollins and Avila have been poor players for several years, and Latos is almost certainly a downgrade from Samardzija. This team was terrible on offense in 2015 (dead last in the league in runs scored), and I expect them to remain in the lower half this year.
Detroit is the worst team in the division. The offense is still respectable (if aging fast) – but the pitching is a disaster. In an era where allowing 700 runs is bad, the Tigers allowed over 800 – worst in the league, and third worst in the majors (behind Colorado and Philly). Signing Zimmermann helps, but it seems like it was at least two years too late. There’s not enough here to contend.
Outlook:
Again from the bottom up: Detroit could make a last gasp IF everything breaks perfectly – and by everything I’m talking perfect health for their stars, the Royals and Indians suffer major injuries, and the pitching somehow is average. Even then it’s a tall order. No, it’s more likely that they continue to flounder at or near the bottom of the league. Expect the rebuild to begin in earnest by October.
After that it’s a tougher call – the next three teams all have cases to contend. I’m picking Minnesota to fall to fourth, only because their pitching still isn’t good enough, and I don’t have confidence in their GM making a big trade even if they are contending in July. This team needs one big ‘splash’ move. The offense will be fine, Sano is a beast and if Park hits that’s a bonus – but they were lucky not to be worse on the mound than they were.
The White Sox are stuck in the middle – not bad enough to ‘tank’, with an ace in Sale and a masher in Abreu…but not good enough to truly contend either, with holes in the lineup and on the mound. Unlike the Twins, I see this team going ‘all-in’ if they’re even close to contending in July – their offseason moves made it clear that they want to win right now. I just don’t think they have enough.
Cleveland needs just a hair more offense to win a wildcard – if you put Minnesota’s lineup with Cleveland’s pitching, you’d likely have a 100-game winner. Unfortunately, the Tribe is still a few pieces short of beating out the Royals unless something really goes wrong in KC.
Speaking of the Royals, they are the pick in the Central. They aren’t as young as you might think – Gordon is 32, Cain is 30, Davis is 30 – but they certainly are still younger than most teams overall. I don’t think they will blow away the division again, but they should be able to stay on top.
My Predictions:
KC 90-92 wins
Cleveland 86-88 wins
White Sox 81-83 wins
Minnesota 78-80 wins
Detroit 69-72 wins
AL EAST
Changes:
Toronto (93-69, +221 run differential in 2015)
ADDED SP JA Happ, RP Drew Storen, SP/RP Jesse Chavez
LOST SP David Price, LF Ben Revere, SP Mark Buehrle
NY Yankees (87-75, +66 run differential in 2015)
ADDED RP Aroldis Chapman, 2B Starlin Castro
LOST RP Adam Warren, 1B Greg Bird (injury)
Baltimore (81-81, +20 run differential in 2015)
ADDED DH Pedro Alvarez, SP Yovani Gallardo, RF/1B Mark Trumbo
LOST SP Wei-Yin Chen, RF Gerardo Parra, OF Steve Pearce
Tampa Bay (80-82, +2 run differential in 2015)
ADDED LF Corey Dickerson, DH Logan Morrison, SS Brad Miller
LOST DH John Jaso, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, SP Nathan Karns
Boston (78-84, -5 run differential in 2015)
ADDED SP David Price, RP Craig Kimbrel
LOST SP Wade Miley
Comments:
This was pretty clearly the best division in all of MLB in 2015, and I think it will be again. There are no BAD teams here, although I think a couple teams will decline.
Toronto had the most runs scored and the best run differential of any team in all of MLB – and it wasn’t close on either count. They bring the offense back essentially intact – but with Troy Tulowitzki in place for a full season. Even allowing for some injuries, there’s no reason to expect Toronto to slip much on offense – if they aren’t a top-3 offense again, something went very wrong. Losing Price hurts, but if Happ really did figure it out with Pittsburgh, he will fare ok. The return of Marcus Stroman also is a big boost. This isn’t a great staff, but they don’t have to be.
New York has a lot of ‘collapse’ risk on offense – they have exactly ONE starting hitter, Starlin Castro, younger than 31. They’ve already lost their best 1B/DH insurance policy for the year when Bird went down. The Yanks got more than they could have reasonably expected from ARod and Teixeira last year, but expecting that lightning to strike twice is risky business. The good news? They have a good, young rotation and when Chapman is eligible they might have the best back-end bullpen in the majors.
I have no idea what Baltimore is doing. They hit tons of homers last year, but had all kinds of trouble getting on base – so naturally, they acquired Trumbo and signed Alvarez, two more guys in the same mold. Neither one can field a lick, but one will have to play the field – and their pitching is weakened by replacing Chen with Gallardo. This team might hit 250 homers and still struggle to score 670 runs.
Tampa has a fantastic pitching staff, led by ace Chris Archer – good sleeper Cy Young pick here, folks. Overall the staff was top-4 in just about every meaningful category. Unfortunately, the offense is below average, and losing Cabrera hurts. Having said that…the team has the stats of a mid-level offense (seventh in batting average, ninth in on-base, etc) but they were next to last in the stat that counts, runs scored. If Morrison can adequately replace Jaso, this team might score a few more runs this year.
Boston signed the top pitcher on the market, they have two young up-and-coming stars in Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts…but I still think they are a year or two away. Their offense is heavily dependent on (soon-retiring) David Ortiz, and while they keep trying to find Hanley Ramirez a position the simple fact is he isn’t a good hitter anymore.
Outlook:
Bottom first: I don’t like Baltimore’s chances whatsoever, unless they make an early trade for a starter. The offense as a whole can’t tell a strike from a ball, the starting staff is mediocre to bad, and it just seems like this group has missed their window.
The Yankees are doing it right – not chasing the big free agents, biding their time, trying to rebuild with youth and shed some contract dead weight. That’s smart, but it also requires patience. They surprised many, including me, a season ago…but I cannot see that offense holding up for another year. In a division as tough as this one, even a small slip can make a big difference.
Boston should climb at or above .500 with Price on board, and they could contend if everyone stays healthy (and Ortiz defies aging one more time). My money is on 2017 or 2018 for this squad, though – they still have too many holes, both at bat and in the rotation.
Call it a hunch, but I think Tampa will be a surprise AL contender and could snag a wildcard slot. I love their pitching, they will be in almost every game thanks to that deep rotation – and I think the hitting will rebound just enough to give this squad a shot at 85+ wins.
Toronto still rules the roost…in the best division, they remain the best team in my book. Even if the pitching falters a bit (and remember, Price wasn’t responsible for their late-season surge by himself), the offense is still amazing.
My Predictions:
Toronto 92-95 wins
Tampa 86-90 wins
Boston 82-84 wins
Yankees 78-81 wins
Baltimore 75-77 wins
Next week: the NL West.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.