Ahead of the first debate of 2016, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is tied with Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination on CNN’s Political Prediction Market.
Rubio and Trump’s chances are both at 32%, with Ted Cruz in third place at 27%.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market, administered by a company called Pivit, allows Internet users to predict outcomes of the 2016 election. It also factors in polling and other elements to its markets.
The list of Republican candidates for the prime-time debate has shifted, with Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina failing to make the main stage.
Paul told CNN that he will not participate in Thursday’s debate and that Fox News and the Republican Party are trying to predetermine who the nominee will be.
Paul’s chances for the nomination in CNN’s Political Prediction Market at at 1%.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market is not to be confused with polls from real voters. In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump’s lead for the nomination grows nationally with 33% support from Republican voters. Cruz is second at 20% and Rubio is third at 13%.
For the Democratic side on CNN’s Political Prediction Market, Hillary Clinton is still leading at 81% while Bernie Sanders is slowly gaining, though his odds are just 20%.
The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for February 1.