Nothing is simple about the crisis in Syria, and nothing will be easy about finding a political solution to end the four-year civil war.
But that’s what foreign powers are aiming to do in Vienna this week, where top diplomats are meeting to try to negotiate their way out of the biggest humanitarian crisis since the Second World War.
Talks began Thursday and will continue Friday. For the first time, Iran is taking part.
“This is a human catastrophe,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. “The challenge that we face in Syria today is nothing less than to chart a course out of hell.”
Here’s a look at who’s involved in the discussions and what they want:
United States
Involvement: Washington heads an international coalition that is bombing ISIS targets in Syria. It had a program to train and equip rebels, but that program fell under heavy scrutiny and was suspended after the White House acknowledged the program had only succeeded in graduating a handful of recruits, despite spending nearly $500 million on the endeavor. Administration officials have stressed that Syrian rebel commanders will continue to receive military equipment.
Desired outcome: President Barack Obama has said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must go. But Russia’s entry into the conflict is likely to pose a real test of American commitment to that demand.
Russia
Involvement: A long-standing ally of the Assad regime, Moscow’s support has shifted in recent weeks from supplying weapons to putting boots on the ground. Its airstrikes in support of Syrian government forces are reported to have targeted a broad range of Assad’s enemies, including ISIS, CIA-backed rebels and other opposition groups.
Desired outcome: Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that as far as he’s concerned, Assad isn’t going anywhere for the time being. He underscored his backing by inviting the Syrian President up to Moscow for a grinning photo opp. More broadly, some analysts say Putin is using Syria as an opportunity to make Russia — a pariah among Western countries after its aggressive moves in Ukraine — a key player in the Middle East that the United States and its allies can’t ignore.
Saudi Arabia
Involvement: Saudi Arabia is one of the main supporters of insurgent groups battling the Syrian regime and ISIS. It is also one of the nations participating in the U.S.-led coalition’s airstrikes. Saudi Arabia balked at Iran’s participation in talks this week.
Desired outcome: Like the United States, Riyadh has pushed for Assad’s ouster, and is not likely to settle for much less.
Turkey
Involvement: The country has long, porous border with Syria. Thousands of foreign fighters have flowed over it into Syria and hundreds of thousands of refugees have poured out the other way.
Bitterly opposed to Assad, the Turkish government has long supported Syrian rebels, allowing them a haven in its territory. But the rise of ISIS and other Islamic extremist groups has seriously complicated matters for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who agreed this year to let the U.S-led coalition launch bombing raids against ISIS positions from its territory.
And then there’s the important role played in the fight against ISIS by Kurdish militias who have a long history of conflict with the Turkish state that’s muddling matters.
Desired outcome: Ankara wants to get rid of Assad, remove the growing threat of ISIS and bring an end years of destabilizing conflict along its southern border. But it also wants to stop the Kurds from carving their own state out of the current chaos.
Iran
Involvement: Tehran is a staunch backer of the Assad regime, funneling money, guns and fighters its way. Some analysts say Syrian government forces rely on Iranian officers to mastermind their battles. The extent of that involvement was highlighted earlier this month by the reported death of a top Iranian commander in Syria.
Desired outcome: Ruled by a Shiite Muslim regime, Iran is a clear enemy of ISIS’ brand of Sunni extremism. But analysts say they doubt defeating ISIS is top of Tehran’s goals in Syria. “I think the primary Iranian objective is to ensure that Assad does not fall,” says Middle East analyst and former CIA officer Reuel Marc Gerecht.
Iraq
Involvement: The chaos in Syria that helped give rise to ISIS has had terrible consequences for neighboring Iraq, which has lost large swathes of territory to the Islamic militant group. It has also received large numbers of refugees. The predominantly Shiite government in Baghdad leads a delicate dance as it balances its deep ties with Iran alongside its close dealings with the United States.
Desired outcome: The defeat of ISIS and a stable Syria next door have to be top of Iraq’s wish list. The tight relationship with Tehran means Baghdad’s unlikely to object to Assad remaining in power. It recently agreed to share intelligence with Syrian, Russian and Iranian forces.