The Fall Classic is almost here, but before we get to that let’s look at the teams that have departed the postseason, in order, and see what went wrong for each of them.
PITTSBURGH: The obvious answer is they were “Arrieta’d”, but he was NOT unhittable that night – he gave up baserunners, especially late. The real issue was Cole digging the team a hole too deep to come out of, he was just off that night. Such is life in a 1-game scenario. Not much to say, other than win the division and avoid the coin flip.
NY YANKEES: They just ran out of steam. This was an aging roster, I was shocked they led the division for as long as they did, but you could see down the stretch that they were struggling. Losing Teixeira was a huge blow, and their starting pitching was not championship caliber. I look for major upgrades in New York as the old, bad contracts start to expire.
St. LOUIS: Another team that played ‘over their heads’ all summer, especially given the crushing injuries. I give them all the credit in the world for somehow winning 100 games with that roster, but by October it was pretty clear that they were in trouble. I said at the time that either Pittsburgh or the Cubs would be favored to beat them, and verily it came to pass. It’s tough to bet against this franchise – I’ve given them up for dead before only to see them win more division crowns – but I really think they are in for a fallow period in 2016-2017.
LA DODGERS: This roster is WAY too ‘top-heavy’. They are completely dependent on their top-2 starters and their top-3 hitters to win games. Their middle relief, back-end starters, and bottom-half lineup were not up to par and the Mets exploited every one of those weaknesses. I fully expect Zack Grienke to leave, putting the Dodgers in a very precarious position – the roster isn’t that young to begin with, and they will need to spend big bucks to improve the rotation. This winter will be VERY interesting to watch in Dodgerland.
TEXAS: Tough end to a great season, as they ‘rose from the dead’ at the all-star break to win the West. With Yu Darvish returning and the trade for Cole Hamels, the Rangers are well-positioned for 2016. Still, blowing a 2-0 lead is always a downer.
HOUSTON: They were playing with ‘house money’ after their amazing turnaround this year, so losing – to the defending AL champs, in five games – is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. The WAY they lost will bother them – they had the series locked up in Game Four before their bullpen blew it – but that should become a distant memory. This is a team on the rise, with a core of great young talent and an ace pitcher who is greater than his stuff. They need a stouter bullpen and a hitter or two, and then they will be ready.
CUBS: Speaking of ‘house money’…by most estimates, the Cubs arrived a year ahead of schedule. This was in part due to their young hitters, in part due to the amazing performance of Jake Arrieta after June, and in part due to the huge gap between the top-5 in the NL and everyone else. They strike out too much, and like the Dodgers the back end of their rotation needs help, but the Cubs have tons of talent and oodles of cash to spend. They should be THE power in the Central for the next five years.
TORONTO: One pitcher short has to be the theme here…David Price was the ace they desperately needed, and getting Marcus Stroman back was also a huge lift, but they just didn’t have the bullpen depth you needed once Brett Cecil was lost to injury. That was a crippling blow to an already thin bullpen. The offense should be almost as good next season, but with Price ready to declare free agency and a roster that is by no means young, look for Toronto to take one more stab at a title.
That leaves us with the Mets and Royals…both great stories for different reasons, neither expected to be here by most when the season opened. Let’s look at the matchups:
OFFENSE
The Mets struggled offensively for much of the season, but the October Mets bear little resemblance to the early July Mets. The return of David Wright, the acquisition of Yoenes Cespedes, and the callup/emergence of prospect Michael Conforto turned a poor offense into an above-average one. They’ve got some pop, they’ve got some speed, and (at least for the past two series) they’ve had a Superman in Daniel Murphy.
Murphy is worth a second look – he’s been just another above-average hitter for his entire career, but just this month he’s taken Kershaw, Grienke, Lester, and Arrieta deep – and he’s hit seven homers in nine games overall! Of course this is nothing more than a hot streak, no one is this good…but it’s come at a most opportune time for both the team and for Murphy, who is set to become a free agent this winter.
The Royals go against so many modern offensive trends. Baseball in 2015 involves low averages, more strikeouts than at any time in MLB history, and quite a few longballs. The Royals hit a few homers, but they are not a powerhouse offensive team, ranking 14th out of 15 teams in homers. They finished dead last in walks as well…but #1 in fewest strikeouts. They put the ball in play and force the defense to make plays, and for two seasons it’s been a winning formula.
Now, here’s where I get on a bit of a soapbox…I see value in what they do, especially in a low-run environment as we’re in now. Making contact with a runner on third and one out is a VERY valuable skill. Scoring from first on a single, as Cain did to win Game Six the other night, is a VERY valuable skill. Having said that…let’s not overplay this. Had the Royals not staged absolutely epic comebacks last year vs. Oakland in the wildcard, or this year vs. the Astros in Game Four, they would be a playoff afterthought. To a certain extent they have created their own luck, sure, but going into the late innings 3+ runs down is NOT a winner in the long run. They are a good team that’s had some amazing things happen to them, and their GM deserves a TON of credit for turning around a moribund franchise, but this is not some juggernaut.
Overall, I think the Royals have the better offense, but it’s very close and in a short series, ‘best’ is often determined by who the hot hitters are. A key factor will be the KC batters vs. the Mets’ fireballing pitchers. See below for more…
ROTATION
Let’s start with KC – their rotation is very average for a playoff team. Edinson Volquez is effectively wild at times, just wild some other times, but he does usually keep the team in the game. Yordano Ventura throws gas, but his offspeed pitchers are below average and he’s usually vulnerable after two spins through the order. Chris Young has the lowest ERA in the rotation, and he’s a 36-year-old soft-tosser who also is only good for about five innings. That leaves erstwhile ace Johnny Cueto, the man supposed to put the Royals ‘over the top’ who has instead been a major mess since the trade. At this point, he’s pretty clearly the 4th man in the rotation. Overall, this might be the weakest rotation of any team that made the playoffs.
Then there’s the Mets rotation – simply put, the hardest-throwing foursome in MLB history. All four (DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, Matz) have 95+ speed for their AVERAGE fastball. More importantly, given that all four are young, they’ve had a significant rest period after the sweep of the Cubs. They should be fresh for this series, and that could well be the difference. All four starters have been effective, but the top three especially so – DeGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard have combined to throw 46 postseason innings in seven starts. They’ve allowed a total of 12 runs, and struck out 63 while allowing only 15 walks and 34 hits. With the Royals reluctant to take a walk, the question is will they put the ball in play enough to generate offense? Additionally, will they be able to run up high pitch counts and get these fireballers out of the game? The answers to those questions likely hold the keys to the Series.
The advantage here is with the Mets, and it’s not particularly close.
BULLPEN
Here’s where the Royals really shine – they have two quality setup men in Kelvin Herrera and Ryan Madson, and closer Wade Davis is the best in the business. In a short series like this, if they deploy the bullpen aggressively they only need five innings (six at most) from their starters. If they take a lead to the 7th, the game is almost always over.
New York has a good closer in Familia and their top setup man (Tyler Clippard) had a good season, but Clippard has had a poor postseason. In fact, Terry Collins has so little faith in the rest of his ‘pen that he’s been using erstwhile starter Bartolo Colon in middle relief. The team has pitched 25 relief innings in October. Familia has thrown 9.2, Colon 5.1, Clippard 4.2, and Addison Reed 3.1. That leaves only two innings for the rest of the bullpen…if the Royals CAN knock out a starter early, they have a great chance.
The edge here goes to the Royals, and again it isn’t particularly close.
MANAGERS/INTANGIBLES
I’m not a Ned Yost fan, at least when it comes to in-game decisions. Too often, it seems the Royals win in spite of his tactical skills rather than because of them. Having said that…his players love him and he has a reputation for being an excellent ‘people skills’ manager, and that has real value. Having been there before, he has the benefit of experience and is not ‘under the gun’ to produce as he has been in the past.
Terry Collins is a solid manager, I haven’t seen him make many tactical mistakes. I disagree with the way he’s using Colon – a pitcher with that skillset (throws strikes, doesn’t miss bats) is not an ideal mid-inning reliever – but I understand his options are limited. He was appropriately aggressive with his closer and other pitching changes this month. On the other hand, he’s been the beneficiary of the hottest batter I’ve ever seen in Murphy – can this team win when he turns ‘into a pumpkin’?
OUTLOOK
Predictions in short series are silly, especially in baseball. I keep repeating that, but it’s important to realize just how much ‘noise’ there is in any small sample of baseball. The Cubs go 0-4 in May and it’s a blip…they go 0-4 last week and they are done. The one thing I feel pretty confident about is that the Royals won’t get swept. Their skillset (contact, speed, defense, bullpen) is fairly slump-proof and should keep them in a lot of close games; they will win some of those games.
HOWEVER…I think the Mets’ young, rested rotation is the difference. It’s one thing to face one stud fireballer…quite another to see them night after night. They say momentum is tonight’s starting pitcher, so that gives the Mets legitimate hope every single night. I’m picking the METS IN SIX.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.