When I make predictions, I like to take a look back on what I said six months ago and see how close (or far off) I was. Before we move on to the NL playoff picture, let’s take a moment and review…
My NL East Standings (predicted win total; actual win total as of 10/1):
Washington (97-101 wins; 80)
Mets (83-86; 89)
Miami (80-83, 69)
Atlanta (67-70; 64)
Philly (58-64; 61)
NL Central Standings:
Pittsburgh (92-94; 96)
Cubs (86-91; 93)
St. Louis (81-84; 100)
Milwaukee (77-80; 68)
Cincy (70-73; 63)
NL West Standings:
Dodgers (94-96; 88)
San Diego (86-88; 73)
San Francisco (79-82; 83)
Colorado (69-73; 66)
Arizona (64-67; 77)
Let’s start with the good calls. I was VERY close on the Pirates, and since I follow them closest of all I’m very happy with that. I was in on the Cubs before anyone, predicting the wild card for them. I saw Atlanta and Philly as the worst in the league; good call. I missed slightly high on the Brewers and Reds, but I did identify them both as rebuilding. I was close on the Giants, a team I’ve struggled with, and I called for the Rockies to trade Tulo and start a rebuild.
On the flip side – I picked a talented contender to crash and burn, but I picked the Cards and in real-life it was the Nats. Oops! I thought Arizona would be awful; they were pretty good, all things considered. Finally, I fell hard for the Padres’ moves, but that didn’t work out at all and they were a non-factor all season.
Honestly, I feel pretty good about these predictions…you’ll never get all of them right, but I feel like the hits (Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Braves) were better than the misses (Nats – and EVERYONE missed that one, Cards, Padres).
Enough looking back – let’s look forward to the NL playoffs. Instead of trying to predict short series, I’m going to go over every team’s strengths and weaknesses briefly. Let’s start with the Dodgers.
LA Dodgers
STRENGTHS: Well, let’s start with the obvious…it’s not clear who had the best individual pitching season in the NL, but it’s VERY obvious which team has the best top-2 starters. Clayton Kershaw may be having his best season – 2.16 ERA, 229 innings, only 161 hits and 42 walks allowed, 294 strikeouts (if he pitches this weekend, he will be the first pitcher since 2002 to record a 300-strikeout season). Zack Grienke has, by some measurements, been even better – 144 hits in 214 innings, only 39 walks, 192 strikeouts and a ridiculous 1.68 ERA. Their closer, Kensley Janssen, has also been top-notch.
In a five or seven game series, these two will start the majority of the games – which gives them an advantage right off the bat.
Additionally, despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park the Dodgers have good offensive numbers overall. They are especially adept at reaching base (league-leading on-base %) and hitting home runs (league-leading 183).
WEAKNESSES: The rest of the rotation is a mess; middle relief, while improved since the break, is still a concern; the team lacks speed and does not hit for a high average. The biggest concern, however, is defense. They do not boast a good defense, which can be a factor when facing top teams in close games.
OUTLOOK: The pitching matchups with the Mets (Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom) are fascinating – if the Mets can manage to get to Kershaw or Grienke, the Dodgers may be in trouble. LA will go as far as their aces take them.
NY Mets
STRENGTHS: Pitching. The Mets boast the aforementioned ‘big three’ starters, their bullpen is very deep – especially with the addition of Tyler Clippard, and they have the depth to play matchups in a short series.
Offensively, Yoenis Cespedes is making himself a pile of cash as an impending free agent – he’s batting .287/.336/.610 since joining the Mets, with 17 HRs. He doesn’t walk much and history shows he isn’t THIS good, but he’s made a major difference for the Mets. Lucas Duda (27 HR) and Curtis Granderson (25 HR) also provide power, while young phenom Michael Conforto also burst on the scene quickly with nine HRs in only 168 ABs. This lineup is far more dangerous than it was in May.
WEAKNESSES: The ‘big three’ have all pitched a lot of innings, and all three have shown some signs of fatigue. Syndergaard in particular has struggled down the stretch, he’s allowed 3+ runs in six of his last eight starts. Do the young guns have enough left in the tank to outpitch the likes of Grienke and Kershaw?
The lineup is top-heavy, the bottom can be pitched to. Also, against lefty pitchers the likes of Granderson and Duda can be neutralized.
OUTLOOK: The two big questions are: Can the pitching hold up? Will the relatively youthful roster handle the big spotlight? I think the Mets match up with the Dodgers well, this should be an excellent series.
St. Louis Cardinals
STRENGTHS: Pitching and defense (and maybe some magic).What the Cards have done this year, frankly, boggles the mind. They lost the unquestioned ace of their staff back in April, their offense has been marginal all season – yet they will finish with 100+ wins and the best record in baseball. Even with Wainwright out, they have a team ERA of just 2.91! They had six pitchers make 8+ starts, and every one of them had an ERA under 3.47. Their top four relievers combined for 180+ innings and a 2.20 ERA. They are deep and come at you from both sides and from all angles. In addition, they are fundamentally sound – they have the best defensive RF in the game in Jason Heyward, the best defensive catcher in Yadier Molina, and one of the best at 3B in Matt Carpenter.
WEAKNESSES: They don’t hit well, and they especially struggle against lefties – they only hit .230 against southpaws for the season. The bottom of their lineup is the worst of any NL playoff team – if you get past Carpenter, Holliday, Peralta, and Heyward, there just isn’t much left to threaten teams on a regular basis.
Having said that, these are the Cardinals, so someone like Kolten Wong or Jon Jay may well hit .400 for October.
OUTLOOK: Despite their record, I think this is the weakest team in the NL playoff race. They have too many tough lefties to face, they don’t hit for a lot of power, and they don’t steal a lot of bases. Anything can happen, but I favor either the Bucs or the Cubs over the Cards in the NLDS.
Chicago Cubs
STRENGTHS: Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester form the second-best 1-2 combo behind the Dodgers. Arrieta, you probably know about – he’s pitching better than anyone I’ve ever seen over his last 12 starts, maybe the best ANYONE has ever seen. In addition, the top of their lineup is scary – Kris Bryant is in line for rookie of the year, Anthony Rizzo is a star, Dexter Fowler gets on base, and they’ve got plenty of power further down the lineup. The bullpen is fairly deep, and very strong at the back end. Finally, I think Joe Maddon is the best manager in baseball today.
WEAKNESSES: Like the Dodgers, the rest of their rotation is questionable at best. The middle relief has been VERY spotty, and while they hit for a ton of power, their average (.244 as a team) is the lowest in the NL. In other words, they are a ‘boom or bust’ offense and if they hit a rut, it can last for several games.
OUTLOOK: They are favored over the Bucs for only one reason: Arrieta. Other than him, they are not as good as Pittsburgh and if the Bucs can catch Arrieta on an off night, they should be able to win behind their superior bullpen and depth. If the Cubs win, they will match up favorably with the Cards, but less so with the Dodgers or Mets.
Pittsburgh
STRENGTHS: Depth. Pittsburgh is the deepest club in the NL, perhaps the deepest in MLB. They have a true ace in Cole, three other good starters in Liriano, Happ, and Burnett, a bullpen that is six deep, and a lineup with no obvious holes. When they had Jung Ho Kang, they had above-average players on the bench almost every game. As it stands, the bench depth is still adequate with Morse, Snider, and either Harrison or Ramirez available to hit. This is the deepest Pirate club since at least 1979.
WEAKNESSES: Being in the wrong division. Honestly, they deserved a much better fate than one game vs. Arrieta, they would have won any other division handily, but those are the breaks. They also have some issues with fundamentals, especially baserunning – they seem to run into an out on the basepaths every other game. Defensively they are strong in the outfield, average at best in the infield – less than that when Pedro Alvarez is in the field.
OUTLOOK: It is all about the wild card. Get past Arrieta, and they match up favorably with anyone left except the Blue Jays. So let’s ‘flip a coin’ next Wednesday and see what happens – I expect Cole to throw a good game, so it should come down to the wire!
Next week: AL review and playoff preview.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.