Is Russia really targeting ISIS with airstrikes in Syria? Or is it doing something the U.S. considers more troubling?
Russia stunned the U.S. on Wednesday by giving it just a one-hour heads-up that it was going to pummel ISIS targets. U.S. aircraft should stay out of the way, it said.
The problem, analysts say, is that Russia doesn’t seem to be pounding ISIS targets. Instead, they say Russia appears to be attacking rebels to help crush Syrian dissent and bolster Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Either way, Russia’s new attacks can have big ramifications not just for the Syrian crisis, but for the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS.
What does Russia say it’s doing?
Russia said its airstrikes in Syria came at the request of al-Assad. And the Kremlin said it’s coordinating its targets with the Syrian regime.
Russian Defense Ministry said warplanes targeted eight ISIS positions Wednesday, including arms, transportation, communications and control positions.
But the targets are limited to ISIS, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Russian state news agency TASS.
“This operation is aimed at supporting the Syrian armed forces in the fight against the Islamic State terrorist group (banned in Russia) and other extremist groups,” Peskov said.
The phrase “other extremist groups” could be critical. Since the beginning of Syria’s four-year civil war, al-Assad has referred to his opponents as “terrorist groups” — well before ISIS became a serious threat in Syria.
That raises the possibility that Russian airstrikes could land on Syrian rebels and civilian dissidents.
Why does the Pentagon doubt Russia’s going after ISIS?
The Russian attacks Wednesday didn’t appear to hit targets under the control of ISIS, which operates in the north and east of the country, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said.
And a senior U.S. administration official said a Russian airstrike near the Syrian city of Homs “has no strategic purpose” in terms of combating ISIS, which “shows they are not there to go after ISIL.”
ISIL is another acronym for the terror group, which is bent on solidifying a caliphate with strict Sharia law across swaths of Iraq and Syria.
The White House took a milder tone on what Russia may be up to.
“I think the Russians have made clear that they’re not interested in provoking a conflict,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest said. “Their actions thus far indicate that that’s what they believe.”
Why the skepticism?
It’s not just where Russia is striking that has drawn skepticism. Even before their airstrikes, the types of Russian equipment seen at an airbase in Syria didn’t seem necessary for fighting ISIS.
“We see some very sophisticated air-to-air aircraft going into these airfields. I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA-15s or SA-22s (Russian missiles), said Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO’s supreme allied commander.
“I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require sophisticated air-to-air capabilities.”
Who else is unconvinced?
France, part of the U.S.-led coalition striking ISIS targets in Syria, said it is also questioning Russia’s true motives.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said his country did not receive advance warning and he wanted to be sure Russia did not target opponents of the Assad regime or civilians.
“We have to check that it really was Daesh and terrorist groups that really have been targeted and not opponents to the Syrian regime or the civilian population,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told reporters Wednesday.
Daesh is the Arabic acronym for ISIS.
“I’m not accusing anybody of anything, but we have to check the facts,” he added.
But the Syrian National Coalition, a dissident group, reported 36 people were killed, — all civilians.
How dangerous can this get?
Lots of military jets from different countries flying in cramped airspace could be disastrous.
“This is going to get very dangerous,” CNN military analyst and retired Lt. Col. Rick Francona said Thursday.
“Right now you’ve got the aircraft of the Syrian air force, the Russian air force, and the U.S.-led coalition operating in a very confined area. These are high-performance aircraft — lots of weapons, lots of people on edge when they’re flying these missions.”
He said any mistake “could result in an incident with fatalities on somebody’s side.”
Has anyone besides Syria welcomed Russia’s involvement?
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi said Russian airstrikes in Syria are “beneficial” and would welcome Russia’s expansion in to his ISIS-plagued country if Moscow joins the U.S.-led international coalition effort.
“Don’t forget, Iraq was attacked from across the Syrian border into Iraq by Da’esh, by ISIL,” said Al-Abadi during an interview with PBS.
“And that cost us a lot of human costs in terms of people killed, people being kidnapped, people being enslaved, women, children. So any joining of this fight against Da’esh by anyone, we very much welcome.”
So, why does Russia support al-Assad?
Russia has long been a staunch ally of Syria — even as other world leaders say al-Assad’s regime has killed tens of thousands of civilians in the past four years and must go.
Syrian dissidents have been demanding end to over 40 years of al-Assad family rule. But what started as peaceful protests led to violent government crackdown and now a full-blown civil war, with more than 200,000 people killed.
Moscow has been allies with al-Assad’s family since the Soviet days, when it was the main military supporter of al-Assad’s father 40 years ago.
It supplied hundreds of military advisers in the 1967 war against Israel and billions worth of sophisticated equipment since.
In return, it got a lease on a naval supply depot in the port of Tartus, just south of Latakia. This mattered because Russia had no other reliable port facilities in the Mediterranean for its Navy
What else does Russia stand to gain?
The U.S. intelligence community now thinks Russia may have beefed up its military strength in Syria because Moscow believes al-Assad may not be able to hang onto power and it wants to position itself to back a proxy if the regime were to collapse.
The Pentagon has the same suspicion, Defense officials told CNN.
Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, says Russia’s bold move in Syria “will clearly signal to regional and international powers Russia’s determination to prevent Assad’s ouster.”
Ultimately, Russia’s intervention is a game-changer in Syria, The Institute for the Study of War says,
“It will alter the nature of international negotiations, compromise and weaken the cohesion and efforts of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition (and) strengthen the Assad regime.”