The 2016 race is set to take off after Labor Day. I hope Republicans have as many voters as candidates. A few observations on where the race stands today:
1. Hillary Clinton has a high (80%) favorable rating among Democrats. In politics, however, things are not always as they appear. Politicians, like people, have antibodies, strong supporters who rush to their aid when they are wounded. Hillary’s support is, in part, indicative of her failing political health. Even with high favorables, she is sinking.
2. In 1976, the country song of the year was “Don’t the Girls All Get Prettier at Closing Time,” by Mickey Gilley. Clinton is the only serious Democratic candidate at the bar. Democrats have no choice but to rate her favorably, unless someone else shows up before closing time.
3. Imagine Joe Biden’s announcement. There wouldn’t be a dry eye in America.
4. Joe Biden is a stronger general election candidate than Hillary Clinton. He appeals to white, working-class males, “Reagan Democrats,” and Clinton doesn’t. Biden was also loyal to the first black president for eight tough years and would energize the Democratic base more than Clinton.
5. Joe Biden is a much better politician than Hillary Clinton. As Bruce Haynes recently noted, “Biden has been sinking every putt.” His visit with Elizabeth Warren to explore her interest in the 2016 ticket was political brilliance.
6. Republicans now have a better shot at beating Hillary Clinton than Joe Biden. She is yesterday’s Democrat. I hope Biden doesn’t run.
7. Elizabeth Warren knows Bernie Sanders is not going to be the Democratic nominee. She has an opportunity to regain leadership of the income-inequality movement she founded and to energize the Democratic ticket if she runs as VP with Biden.
8. Elizabeth Warren gets a free-throw: She is not up for re-election in 2016.
9. The candidate growing on the Republican side is not Donald Trump but Dr. Ben Carson. Trump, in fact, has stopped growing. In a two-man race in the Monmouth Poll, Carson beats Trump by nearly 20 points. Republicans want a conservative outsider more than they want an outsider with no core beliefs.
10. However, in the same poll, Trump, the outsider, beats all the insiders, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Unless one of them grows as an outsider, Trump could be the nominee.
11. On March 15, the GOP nomination process moves to winner take all contests in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. If Trump is still No. 1 in a crowded field mid-March, The Donald could take a big lead.
12. The race restarts after Labor Day. Candidates who can’t flood the airwaves with great positive TV ads in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will begin to fade.
13. The September 16 CNN debate will be the most pivotal point remaining in this race. The dynamic will be reversed: In the first debate, the upstart, Trump, emerged as the alternative to the establishment. In the CNN debate, Bush, Walker, Rubio, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina will be fighting to emerge as “the” conservative alternative to Trump.
14. Can insiders Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Walker establish themselves as conservative outsiders? Tough, but yes, they can. Ronald Reagan remained an outsider, a leader who brought change to the establishment, even after he’d been President eight years.
15. Can Fiorina or Carson become the conservative/outsider alternative to Trump? Yes, they can. Carson already is and has room to grow. This debate is pivotal for Carson and Fiorina.
16. Fiorina has smartly pegged herself as the unique alternative to Hillary Clinton. With Clinton’s decline, however, Fiorina could fade, unless she becomes more than an alternative to Clinton.
17. In the royal courts of Europe, the King always had a religious counselor, a wise man, who was the keeper of core beliefs. Ben Carson is that shaman. He is the crystalline distillation of conservative belief.
18. That’s why voters are turning to Carson now. Eventually, however, Republicans will select a candidate who will put those principles to work. Carson needs to grow or remain the wise man, not the King.
19. Ted Cruz is toast. He is waiting outside a door that will never open. Carson, Trump, and Fiorina aren’t going anywhere and they are genuine outsiders. Cruz will continue to be Donald Trump’s “Chester,” the subservient Looney-Tunes sidekick who drooled, “Spike is my hero, because he’s so big and strong.”
20. At some point, even Cruz will figure that out. He will turn on Trump. Then, Trump will murder him.
21. If Donald Trump ever says he likes one of his opponents or that he’s “a nice guy,” that candidate better head for the fallout shelter. It’s the equivalent of being asked to stand on a plastic sheet in an abandoned underground garage after midnight. The hit man is coming.
22. We can hear Trump now: “I like Ted Cruz. I don’t know why he came to sit at my feet, though he’s a nice guy. But he talks like a girl. Doesn’t he talk like a girl? Maybe its because he’s a loser who’s never done anything.”
23. Without Fiorina at the kid’s table debate, there is little reason to watch. CNN should turn the early debate into a playoff game: The winner gets to continue to the big-boy’s debate. It’s the right thing to do and would deliver higher ratings.
24. I suspect Donald Trump’s favorite Bible verse might be Genesis 1:1. “In the beginning, Trump created Trump. And it was fantastic.”