A circle with a three-mile radius is a lot bigger than you think.
The fact that the law enforcement team chasing the Dannemora fugitives has set up a perimeter around the spot where bloodhounds caught the men’s scent — but haven’t located them yet — is leading some to speculate that the men have slipped through the cops’ grasp.
But that’s not the likely scenario. It’s entirely possible that the men have remained in that wooded area but remained undetected — because, while the tools available to the police are varied and powerful, there’s one thing the fugitives have going for them, at least for now:
This isn’t easy.
Law enforcement breaks the ways that a fugitive can stay on the loose into three categories:
The first is mobility: staying in constant motion ahead of the pursuers; not knowing where you’re going to be tonight.
The second is called “masking”: concealing your identity, changing your appearance.
The third is disengagement: having no contact with anyone from your past, or in some other way isolating yourself (say, for example, hiding in the woods).
These fugitives have clearly mastered the arts of mobility and disengagement. And those have kept them on the loose — so far.
The tools law enforcement is using are time-tested but of varying efficiency. The grid search — those shoulder-to-shoulder marches through the woods that you see in the movies when children go missing — is a painstaking process.
Remember that a man running through a terrain like that in this manhunt can move a hundred yards in under a minute; the searchers will take four to five minutes to cover that distance, moving methodically and checking behind every tree. So it’s like playing a game of hide-and-seek with a much faster opponent. It’s going to take some time.
The infrared tracking systems being used may or may not be what break this case open — depending on their efficiency. “I’ve seen devices that aren’t so good — you can’t tell if it’s a man or a bear,” William Sorukas, the retired chief of the U.S. Marshals Investigative Operations Division, told me. On the other hand, he said, “I used one in Puerto Rico a number of years ago that from a thousand yards away, you could see the ribs on a horse. I could see a jaw lighting up from a person smoking a cigarette on their porch when they inhaled.”
Sorukas, who has tracked down as many fugitives as just about anyone on the planet, believes it’s a good bet that the men are still in those woods. The bloodhound hit made it seem like an accurate perimeter, certainly, but beyond that, he said, “the lack of information in other areas makes us believe this is accurate as well.”
If the fugitives had somehow moved out of the area, it’s likely that they’d have been spotted by now.
Likely, but not certain, of course.
Which bring us to the most important tool at the searchers’ disposal.
You.
The search in the woods is a matter of cops and dogs and infrared and helicopters — but if the men have indeed snuck out somehow, the way they’ll get caught is if — and only if — a member of the public makes the call the cops need.
It’s essential that the public understands that any tip, no matter how small or seemingly insignificant, can be the thing that breaks the case. A broken car window. An article of clothing spotted on the street. Food missing from a pantry.
At “America’s Most Wanted” we saw fugitives caught on the strength of the most absurd clues: One fugitive we were chasing loved to refer to the place he came from as “sweet home Alabama.” Someone overheard a guy in a bar use that phrase, called the cops — feeling pretty sheepish, but making the call nevertheless — and sure enough, the fugitive was in custody before the night was out.
If the men are slipping in and out of a populated area, trying to use that third tool — masking — then it’s essential that the media continue to remind the public of the key clues. David Sweat is 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, a beanpole of a guy; Richard Matt is 6-0 and 210, a lot huskier. So they’re going to have a bit of a Mutt-and-Jeff quality to them walking down the street, if they’re still together.
They have a number of tattoos, but the most visible will be on Sweat ‘s right hand, where he has a tattoo of the letters I-F-B — most likely standing for “In For Blood.”
The men are probably tired, hungry, wet, cold, and desperate. And we know they are both incredibly violent.
If the men are still in the woods, the cops will almost certainly get them, sooner or later. If they’re not in the woods, then they could be anywhere — and if that’s the case, then it’s up to you. If you even think you’ve seen something, you can call the New York State Police special tip line at 1-800-GIVETIP — that’s 1-800-448-3847. Or call the hotline for CNN’s “The Hunt” at 1-866-The-Hunt.
As our old boss at “America’s Most Wanted,” John Walsh — who now hosts “The Hunt” — used to say: YOU can make a difference.
Read CNNOpinion’s Flipboard magazine.