The question on everyone’s mind is: What are the chances that the two escaped murderers from the Dannemora prison can stay on the loose?
The answer, as we learned over more than 20 years of chasing fugitives at “America’s Most Wanted”: In the very short run, their chances are pretty good.
But in the slightly-less-than-short run, almost nil.
One thing we gleaned from all the manhunts we were part of is the simple fact that, let’s face it, fugitives are not the smartest people in the world. That’s how they got to be fugitives in the first place.
It takes enormous luck, incredible planning and meticulous attention to detail to remain a fugitive. Most of the fugitives we went after, if they weren’t caught by the show, managed to get themselves caught pretty quickly on their own.
They ran a red light, had a taillight out, used a stolen credit card and got caught on a 7-Eleven surveillance camera, walked into a coffee shop where the waitress happened to be looking at their pictures on a website, or got into a bar fight at the wrong place at the wrong time. One false move and some cop, somewhere, is going to run a fingerprint, or make a visual connection, and the jig is up.
And even if they do try to watch their every step, it’s not enough. In one case, a fugitive’s overly cautious demeanor was what gave him away. He started dating a girl whose father noticed that he never drove over 55, always came to a full stop at every stop sign, carefully fed every parking meter, always wore his seat belt. “Nobody’s that careful,” the dad told us. “Unless they have something to hide.”
So even the most careful fugitives manage, sooner rather than later, to get themselves caught. And if we know anything about Richard Matt and David Sweat, it’s that they are not cautious, methodical, careful, thoughtful individuals. Despite a well-planned and well-executed escape, they are, from all reports, total lunatics.
Sweat was serving a life sentence without parole for killing Broome County Sheriff’s Deputy Kevin Tarsia in 2002. But shooting him 15 times wasn’t enough. He decided to run him over with a car.
Matt was convicted for kidnapping a businessman for 27 hours and — when the victim didn’t comply with his demands for money — killing him. And not just killing him: A man who drove a car for one of Matt’s victims told Anderson Cooper that Matt shoved a knife sharpener in his victim’s ear, broke his neck and then dismembered the body.
These are not calm individuals at work.
It is easier for fugitives to stay on the loose in the summer than it is in the winter; but they still have to eat, they probably will want to drink, and these two are unlikely to be the kinds of survivalists who can patiently wait out the summer in the woods until the heat dies down.
And from experience, it doesn’t seem likely that the heat will die down on this case. There are two things that motivate the public, and the police, to maintain a manhunt. One is sympathy for the victim: Everyone wants to see justice done. The other is fear: The belief that the fugitives, if not caught, will kill again.
It doesn’t appear that the sympathy aspect has taken hold in this case: Sad to say, there have been few stories about the victims, about the families they left behind, the partners and parents and friends for whom this escape is a terribly, painfully personal affront. We learned that sharing those stories can be a powerful motivator.
But so is fear, and in this case, that is justified. These are men who have clearly shown that they are ruled by ruthlessness and rage — and that is plenty of motivation for making sure this story doesn’t fade away, as too many fugitive stories do.
The $100,000 reward won’t hurt, either.
Some have surmised that these two men must have help on the outside. That can make a difference — but not as much as you think. Witness their purported getaway driver who, according to CNN sources, had an anxiety attack before the escape, and went to the hospital instead of the pickup point. It takes a really good friend to harbor you as a fugitive — and these don’t sound like the kinds of guys who make friends easily.
There are always exceptions to the rule. We can name several fugitives who stayed on the run for a dozen years or more (I’m looking at you, Whitey Bulger). But those tend to be well-connected men with well-financed operations. Not a couple of crazed fugitives on the run without a car or a bankroll.
The odds are stacked against them.
Let’s just hope the odds play out before anyone else gets hurt.