Lindsey Graham has declared his candidacy for the presidency, staking his claim to his 1% of support in the opinion polls. He only needs another 14% to beat Marco Rubio. Will he do it? Maybe not. But he will help define the Republican field as a hawkish one — with just Rand Paul clinging to the banner of peace.
Gosh, the Grahams have such lovely Southern accents. And have led such difficult lives. Lindsey and his sister were raised in the backroom of the family’s pool hall and bar; later they moved into a trailer. Mother died when Lindsey was 21 and dad followed 15 months later. Lindsey adopted his sister, Darline, so that she could enjoy his military benefits. “He’s kind of like a brother, a father and a mother all rolled into one,” she says.
Knowing all this, it’s hard not to admire his personal commitment to the American dream. Too often we’re encouraged to think that Republicans are soulless aristocrats and Democrats are the people’s party. But while John Kerry the millionaire is flown home after falling off his bike, Graham is pressing the flesh in the small town where he grew up round the back of the bar.
Sentiment aside, does Graham actually bring anything new to this race? He has the potential to take South Carolina out of the game: If he dominates his home state then surely candidates will focus their money elsewhere. Meanwhile, what makes this pragmatist different — being pro-immigration — is not going to help him much. And what makes him commonplace these days — his hawkishness — obviously doesn’t help him to stand out.
On the subject of Graham’s foreign policy, Harry Enten’s article at FiveThirtyEight is worth reading. Back in 2013, Rand Paul was gaining in the polls and the GOP appeared to be shifting toward anti-interventionism in foreign policy. The argument for action in Syria had collapsed, Edward Snowden was still cool, and everyone thought their telephone was being tapped.
If Graham had declared in 2013, his neoconservatism might have made him different. But fast forward two years and suddenly all has changed. Russia is threatening on its western flank and the Islamic State is charging through the Middle East. Now, as Enten points out, the consensus is growing for action abroad — and even Paul has slightly modified his stance to keep up with the changing times.
It’s just possible that Paul has achieved his greatest coup — letting parts of the Patriot Act expire, however temporarily — at the very moment when folks may actually want government to get a little bit bigger to protect them.
Of course, what’s popular isn’t necessarily what’s right. Graham and the neoconservatives broadly argue for greater intervention in the Middle East — and that’s quite rational. But the Middle East is so darn complicated that it defies the simplistic assumptions of many neocons. For instance, Graham is utterly opposed to Iran, which he sees as Nazilike in its philosophy and strategy. Maybe he’s right, maybe he’s wrong.
Either way, if America does commit money, advisers or troops to defeating the Islamic State then it’s going to find itself working alongside the Iranians. Because the proto-Nazi fanatics in Tehran are the only people making an effective military stand against the Sunni fundamentalists. How would Graham explain that contradiction to the voters? Alas, he would probably fall back onto the folksy nonsense wisdom of Big Daddy Southern clichés.
On the subject of nuclear negotiations with Iran, he recently said: “My family owned a restaurant, a pool room, and a liquor store and everything I know about the Iranians I learned in the pool room… I ran the pool room when I was a kid and I met a lot of liars, and I know the Iranians are lying.”
Because, y’all, international politics is just the same as a pool game.
Nonetheless, so long as the issue agenda is on foreign policy and hawkishness the new order of the day, then Graham will at least be taken very seriously. This means that the only two candidacies really breaking with tradition this year are those of Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders. Now, wouldn’t they make a fascinating third-party ticket?
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