Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has only hours left to announce he has formed a coalition government, but after a decisive election night victory, his coalition looks fragile.
In the final hours of negotiations, his coalition has shrunk from a strong 67 seats to a weak 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, following the announcement that one of his right-wing coalition partners would move to the opposition.
MK Avigdor Liberman, leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party, announced he would withdraw from the coalition and resign his post as Foreign Minister, significantly weakening Netanyahu’s projected government and reducing the chances that it will last the full four-year term.
“Netanyahu was elected to a term that ends on November 5, 2019,” says Jerusalem Post political analyst Gil Hoffman. “No one thinks it will last that long.”
No Israeli government has lasted the full term in more than 30 years, and Netanyahu’s last government fell apart after only two years. Analysts say a right-wing coalition focused on domestic issues could be stronger than before, but the government’s strength could be its weakness.
“It will be subject to tremendous international pressure,” Hoffman says, “and that can make it harder to keep the government stable, especially when there are world leaders who don’t like Netanyahu personally.”
And yet Netanyahu may have a far bigger problem as he forms his government.
“His main conclusion from his first convention in the 90s was that he cannot allow himself to be the most leftist in his own coalition,” says Yoaz Hendel, the head of the Institute for Zionist Strategies, a right-leaning think tank based in Jerusalem.
For Netanyahu to be able to respond to demands from within his government while handling pressure from outside, Hendel says Netanyahu will have to shift his coalition towards the political center. Netanyahu may encounter problems in his own coalition if he has to stop his partner right-wing parties from moving too far to the right.
“At the end of the day, Netanyahu will find a way to expand his coalition and not to base it only on right-wing parties,” adds Hendel.
Netanyahu’s election night victory gave him all the leverage in choosing his coalition, but he will have to balance the pressures on his government, both foreign and domestic, if he wants his coalition to last.
Perhaps Netanyahu has his sights set on another goal. In September 2018 — a year before his term is up — he will become the longest serving Prime Minister in Israel’s history.
If his government can last.