(editor’s note – this column was filed before play began Thursday night)
Well, we saw a lot of offense in the West and a couple of 7-game series in the East in the first round. For my part there weren’t too many BIG surprises – I went 5-3 in first-round predictions, missing on the Islanders, Jets and Blues. Of those, the Jets losing in four is the biggest surprise – they led going to the third in the first three games; so obviously the series could have gone the other way, but it’s pretty clear I’ve been underestimating Anaheim as well. The Islanders series could have gone either way, which is what I predicted – as for St. Louis, this is just the latest in a long line of Ken Hitchcock-led teams floundering in the postseason. I look for some fairly big changes there this summer.
As for Pittsburgh, I predicted the Rangers in five and while every game was close, that outcome was the least surprising of the round. I’ll have more to say about them in an upcoming column, but the team needs a major shakeup.
On to the teams still alive:
Rangers vs. Capitals – The Rangers have hit on a winning style, but frankly it’s taking the NHL back to the days of the trapping Devils. Expect more of the same – a litany of 2-1 and 3-2 games, tons of blocked shots, and about 12 uncalled interference penalties per night. Understand, I’m not blaming the Rangers or taking away from their series win – they earned that win, and they are smart to take what the officials are giving them – but it’s horrid for the health of the game.
The Rangers were improved offensively during the season, primarily thanks to Rick Nash having a monster season – but he was held in check by the Pens. He has to be a factor in this series if the Rangers are going to advance. The Rangers have good depth at forward, but their top-4 defense is the strength of their team, especially top pair Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi. That duo’s matchup with the Ovechkin-Backstrom line is, in my mind, THE key battle of this series.
Washington has more depth than in past seasons and they have the best goal-scorer in the world in #8 – but they are going to need a big-time performance from their defense in this series. You have to figure that the Rangers won’t give up much, so any breakdowns by the Caps’ blueline will loom especially large. Washington’s biggest advantage comes on special teams – they improbably held the Islanders without a single power play goal, and in a closely-fought seven game series it’s not a stretch to say their PK won the series for them. However, their biggest asset is their lethal power play – at 25%, it was the best in the league during the season.
Both teams have received excellent goaltending, both during the season and in the playoffs. Lundqvist may rate as slightly better than Holtby but it’s a negligible gap.
After all that, I truly believe this series is going to come down to the referees. If they call a tight series – eliminating the interference and calling a lot of penalties – it will greatly favor Washington. If they continue the trend of ‘letting them cheat play’, it favors the Rangers. I don’t really expect a tightly called series; therefore, I think New York will prevail. RANGERS IN SIX.
Canadiens vs. Lightning – Both of these teams were outplayed for long stretches of the first round, yet found a way to win. For Montreal, winning the first three then hanging on behind the stellar play of Carey Price was the key – for Tampa, it was Tyler Johnson’s league-leading six goals in the series, and a 31-save shutout in Game 7 from Ben Bishop. A lot of trends for Tampa are not going to continue – Johnson isn’t going to score six goals (or score on 30% of his shots) against Montreal…on the other hand, Steven Stamkos almost certainly WILL score after being held without a goal by Detroit, and Tampa’s power play will register more than two goals against the Canadiens as well.
Montreal got scoring from up and down the lineup, but only Max Pacioretty and Dale Wiese scored more than one goal (each had two). Pacioretty needs to have a HUGE series if Montreal is going to hold off the Bolts. Defensively, Montreal has the best defender in the series (Subban) but nowhere near the depth that Tampa has – which means the onus is, as usual, on Price. He carried the team against Ottawa, with a .939 save% capped off by his 47-save shutout in Game 6.
Here’s the thing – I don’t believe a goalie can win the Cup by himself. A goalie can steal a game, even a series, but expecting a goalie to keep this up while facing 30+ shots per game is not the smart way to bet. Price will steal a game, maybe two, but sooner or later Stamkos is going to wake up – and when that happens, Tampa should prevail. LIGHTNING IN SIX.
Ducks vs. Flames – Calgary’s surprising run continues, thanks to a seven-goal barrage in Game 6 to close out the series. They may not be the most talented group, but you cannot deny the belief this team has – they NEVER think they are out of a game. However, they are really abusing their top defensemen. Brodie, Wideman, and Russell are each averaging over 27 minutes per game, while their bottom pair is averaging 12 and four minutes, respectively. FOUR MINUTES! At that point you’re essentially playing with five defensemen, and as the Penguins can attest, that wears a team down quickly. The Flames got excellent goaltending from ex-Duck Jonas Hiller, and they can put the puck in the net against just about anyone. The question will always be the defense.
Anaheim won because they finally got the secondary scoring they need to thrive. Getzlaf and Perry did Getzlaf and Perry things (four goals, eight points combined) but Jacob Silfverberg chipped in two goals and six points – after 13 and 39 in 81 regular season games. Ryan Kesler justified the team’s trade for him with three goals and five points. Almost as important, the team got balanced contributions from the blueline – their six defensemen averaged between 18 and 22 minutes of ice time. Goalie Frederik Andersen was solid as well.
Calgary is a nice story and their home crowd will likely be every bit as boisterous against Anaheim as they were against Vancouver – but I believe they are outmatched here. I still don’t believe Anaheim is the best in the West, but I will admit I underestimated them – and Calgary should be an ideal matchup for them. DUCKS IN SIX.
Blackhawks vs. Wild – This should be the best matchup of the second round. Both teams have oodles of skill up front, stout defense corps, and questions in goal. We all know Chicago’s story – start with Kane and Toews, add in some Saad, Hossa, and top defensemen Keith and Seabrook, and hope the goalie (either Crawford or Darling) doesn’t make any huge mistakes. Well, Crawford was pretty terrible in the first round (4.19 goals against, .850 save%), but he did come in to save the day in Game 6 so he’s regained the starting role. To say his leash will be short is likely an understatement, though – at this point, Chicago has the most precarious goalie situation of any team remaining in the tournament.
Minnesota has no controversy, Devan Dubnyk is clearly the man in net – but can his stunning comeback continue? Here’s a guy who has been mediocre-to-bad his entire six-year career – until being traded to a desperate, floundering Wild team midseason. All he did after that was go 27-9 with a 1.78 goals-against and a .936 save% – and outside of one horrendous game against the Blues, he was equally impressive in that series. Can this continue, or will Chicago finally break the spell?
Minnesota certainly has plenty of help for him – Parise, Pominville, and Niederreiter provide the offense, their top-four defense group is strong (headlined by ironman Ryan Suter, who consistently logs 25-30 minutes per game) and they get contributions from their bottom-six forwards as well.
Chicago has the better offense, Minnesota has the better defense corps and structure, but to me this comes down to which goalie holds up. Darling isn’t as good as Crawford, so if Crawford is pulled again it should be a huge advantage for the Wild. On the other hand, Dubnyk isn’t as good as he’s looked the past few months…but he’s also better than he looked for Edmonton, thanks to a much stronger team/system.
This is a very close call – I just have a feeling about this Wild team, they’ve come back from a terrible position in January (remember Pittsburgh beating them 7-2? Remember when seven goals was a game, not a week, for Pittsburgh??), and I think they are stronger for it. Chicago could win and I wouldn’t be shocked, but I’m going to go with the slight upset here – WILD IN SIX.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.