The (extended) prologue is over, now the REAL hockey season begins – the Race to Sixteen, the Quest for the Cup, however you describe it, this is THE best postseason in major sports. Let’s look at all eight matchups – due to time constraints I’ll be taking a very brief look at the Western teams, a bit more in-depth look at the Eastern matchups, and, of course the most in-depth look at the Pens-Rangers series.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Anaheim vs. #8 Winnipeg: The Ducks finish with the West’s best record and get rewarded with perhaps the toughest possible matchup. Winnipeg is returning to the playoffs for the first time in 19 years, and their home crowd will be unbelievably loud. They also are no worse than Anaheim by the numbers – Anaheim fared poorly in traditional stats (+10 goal differential, worst among all playoff teams, Winnipeg is +20) and advanced stats (Anaheim is a poor puck-possession team; Winnipeg is average or a little better). Bottom line: this is a pick-em series with top-line talent favoring Anaheim, depth and energy favoring Winnipeg – and I like the Jets in this one. WINNIPEG IN SIX.
#2 St. Louis vs. #7Minnesota: After being left for dead in January, the Wild have been among the hottest teams in the league ever since. The key has been defense – they boast the #1 penalty kill and are #6 overall in goals-against. Since being ‘rescued’ from the Edmonton wasteland, goalie Devyn Dubnyk has been otherworldly: 27-9-3, 1.78 goals against, .936 save%. Awesome numbers, but totally out of line with his career and I don’t think he can maintain that pace in the playoffs. St. Louis is much deeper. They have the best player in this series (Vladimir Tarasenko) and a 6-deep defense corps. Minnesota could steal the series if Dubnyk continues his stellar play, but I think the ride ends here…ST LOUIS IN FIVE.
C2 Nashville vs. C3 Chicago: What’s interesting about this matchup is the fact that in January, these were considered by most to be the favorites out of the West – now, one of them will be gone after one round. Chicago is banged up – the loss of Patrick Kane has been a big blow, and it’s unknown if he will be ready to return Wednesday. Nashville was miles ahead in this division, but the moves they made in March appear to have backfired – Santorellie and Franson combined for two goals, six assists and a -7 +/- in 23 games since the trade. Nashville has the better defense corps and the best goalie in Rinne, but I’m not sure their forwards are enough to keep pace with the battle-tested Blackhawks (especially with rookie Filip Forsberg appearing to have ‘hit the wall’ late in the season). This should be a great series, I’m going with CHICAGO IN SEVEN.
P2 Vancouver vs. P3 Calgary: Raise your hand if you expected this matchup when the season began – both teams were thought to be rebuilding, and Calgary in particular seemed a long way from a playoff berth. After star defenseman Mark Giordano was lost for the season, and with the defending champs breathing down their necks, most pundits thought Calgary would fade by mid-March. That’s why they play the games – instead, LA paid the price for their slow start by missing the tournament while the pesky Flames made the Dance. They are a bit thin on defense, but the Flames are a GOOD offensive team – they had two 30-goal scorers (a real rarity these days) and had 13 score 10+ goals. Vancouver was supposed to be in transition after trading Ryan Kesler, but good seasons from the Sedin twins, a breakout by Radim Vrbata (31 goals) and excellent scoring depth enabled them to overcome average defense/goaltending. This should be the highest-scoring series and it’s really hard to pick a favorite – I’ll say CALGARY IN SIX because I expect their home fans to be a real factor.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#2 Montreal vs. #7 Ottawa: Talk about improbable, on Feb. 16 the Senators lost to Carolina, dropping their record to 22-23-10. In the NHL, that’s terrible – they were dead, and everyone gave up on them.
The next game, Ottawa called up goaltender Andrew ‘the Hamburglar’ Hammond…and went 21-3-3 the rest of the way. Hammond went 20-1-2 with a 1.79 GAA and a .941 save%, and the team had all sorts of crazy comebacks to finally secure the playoffs…the most dramatic being last Tuesday, when they overcame a 3-0 deficit to Pittsburgh to win 4-3 in overtime. They clinched a playoff berth the next game and have been all but unstoppable…but can it last versus the Canadiens?
Montreal has seen that type of goalie performance all season – despite being a below-average puck possession team, the ‘Habs’ won the division thanks mainly to goalie Carey Price. He went 44-16-6 with a 1.98 GAA and a .933 save%, virtually ensuring he wins the Vezina Trophy (he’s a good bet to win the Hart trophy given to the league MVP as well). Montreal is extremely reliant on their top line/top defense pair for scoring, and on their goaltender – the problem is, in the playoffs depth tends to rise in importance. To make matters worse, top scorer Max Pacioretty (37 goals) is out with an upper body injury and may miss at least the start of the series. If he is a nonfactor in this series, I question Montreal’s ability to score enough to win.
Ottawa has more scoring depth but a looser defensive system overall – and the big question is, can ‘the Hamburglar’ steal goals like this for another month or two? I think he’s going to come back to earth a little, and this series will ride on Pacioretty – if he’s healthy, Montreal should win. It may take him a game or two to return/find his form, and Hammond may steal a game in Montreal, but in the end I think Cinderella has to turn in her glass slipper at the end of this round – MONTREAL IN SEVEN.
A2 Tampa Bay vs. A3 Detroit – With all the excitement in Ottawa, the drama surrounding Pittsburgh, Boston, and LA, plus the dominance of the Rangers down the stretch, there’s a team that’s been lost in the shuffle – the Lightning. Frankly, they are my pick to with the Cup – they have amazing scoring depth, a solid defense corps, and two capable goalies in Ben Bishop and Andre Vasilevskiy. Steven Stamkos continued to build a Hall of Fame career with 43 goals, Tyler Johnson broke out with 72 points, and there are scoring threats on all four lines.
Detroit is still a team in transition – as Zetterberg and Datsyuk decline, the torch is passed to Gustav Nyqvist and Tomas Tatar. Unfortunately, there’s not much else…Stephen Weiss and Johan Franzen are shadows of themselves at this point, Nick Kronwall is the best of a mediocre defense corps, and they have a major goalie controversy brewing (longtime starter Jimmy Howard is benched for Game 1. Losing newcomer Erik Cole to a season-ending injury really hurt – they needed the secondary scoring.
Detroit is never an ‘easy out’ for an opponent, but they match up poorly with the explosive Lightning and I’ll be shocked if the Wings can pull this out. TAMPA BAY IN FIVE.
M2 Washington vs. M3 NY Islanders: Thanks to Pittsburgh’s collapse, we get a treat – the fastest team in the NHL, the Islanders, versus the best goal-scorer of this era in Alex Ovechkin. When goal-scoring is at historic lows and no one could accumulate even 90 total points, Ovie’s 53 goals is truly astounding…on the other hand, if you stop Ovechkin, you stand a very good chance of beating Washington. The key will be Washington’s lethal 25% power play vs. New York’s poor (78%, ranked 26th) penalty kill. If the series becomes a special-teams battle, the Caps have a HUGE advantage.
If the series is mostly 5-on-5 (and the league has trended that way since January) the Islanders should be in good shape. They have an elite scorer in John Tavares, all kinds of speed at forward, and a mobile defense corps. They are vulnerable after the top-4 defenseman, however, so look for the Caps to try to play the matchup game as much as possible.
The other worry for the Caps is goalie fatigue – Braden Holtby was awesome this season (41-20-10, 2.22 GAA, .923 save%) but 73 games is too many in my opinion – will he have enough gas in the tank for a long playoff run?
I think the trend away from tightly-called games (and towards less power play time) favors New York, and I think they will win a very exciting series. ISLANDERS IN SEVEN.
#1 NY Rangers vs. #8 Pittsburgh: Where to begin? This Pens team was such a mess down the stretch that I wasn’t entirely sure if I should be rooting for them to make the playoffs. I thought that if they missed entirely, maybe they’d be more apt to learn from their mistakes – especially if they somehow were to upset the Rangers.
Make no mistake, New York is a BIG favorite this time around – they were the best team in the league both by record and by the numbers (good possession numbers, best goal differential at +60). They have perhaps the best goalie of this era in Lundqvist, and certainly the best backup in Cam Talbot, who shined (21-9-4, 2.21 GAA, .926 save%) while ‘King Henrik’ was out with an injury. They have some offensive depth, although after 43-goal-scorer Rick Nash it does drop off dramatically…but their calling card has been and will be defense. They play a very solid team game, their defensemen are mobile, and, of course, the goalies pick up a lot of the slack. Aside from a poor power play, the team has no apparent weaknesses.
Pittsburgh has plenty of weaknesses – despite the attempts to upgrade, the bottom two lines still are not producing enough offense. Can you believe that PITTSBURGH is the lowest scoring playoff team? That’s absolutely unheard of, and it speaks to how weak this team truly is at putting the puck in the net. Now, they’ve been somewhat unlucky – they have elite puck-possession numbers, and an unusually low shooting percentage – but anyone who has watched this team has seen Kunitz flailing away, the streakiness of Perron, the inability of the fourth line to score, and so on. Malkin is fighting an injury (reportedly his back) and clearly isn’t 100% either. Crosby has been flying and Brandon Sutter had a good season, but without Malking producing this is a relatively easy team to defend.
Speaking of defense, that is what kept the Pens relevant most of the second half of the season – but the defense corps is decimated by injury (Letang is done for the season, Ehrhoff has an unknown return date, Pouliot is day-to-day). Management’s bungling of the salary cap (more on this after the season) left the team with only five defensemen much of the past three weeks, and that absolutely wore them out. Fleury was the team’s MVP and with good reason – his 10 shutouts led the league, and he stole several games for them – but he will need more help than he’s gotten lately if the Pens are to pull this off.
Frankly, while anything is possible in a short series, I just don’t see it happening for Pittsburgh this time. Between injuries, ineffectiveness, and a big-time lack of confidence, this team is nothing like what we’ve seen since 2007. Pittsburgh blew several three and four-goal leads late in the year, and never once won a game when trailing after two periods. Some of that is (lack of) talent, some of it is mental, all of it needs addressed by next year.
The first game is HUGE for the Pens – if they could somehow score three or four goals and regain some confidence, this might be a good series. I think Fleury can steal a game, but I think it’s a quick exit this year – RANGERS IN FIVE.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.