On the eve of a potential crunch meeting over the Ukraine crisis, it seems one key element may be missing: the separatist leaders whose pro-Russian forces are battling with Ukrainian soldiers for control of eastern Ukraine.
The leaders of France and Germany are hoping to bring together Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, on Wednesday in Minsk, Belarus.
But a European diplomat with knowledge of the current diplomatic efforts told CNN on Tuesday that early indications were that top rebel leaders, namely Alexander Zakharchenko and Denis Pushilin, would not be joining them.
If that’s the case, the pro-Russian separatists will not have representation on the sidelines nor participate in talks with leaders from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, the diplomat said. Nor will they participate in a trilateral meeting with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and Ukrainian representatives.
This could, of course, change, but if the separatist leaders are absent, it will affect how the other parties approach the talks and the immediacy of any outcomes.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday that European diplomats were making “one further effort” at negotiating a deal to resolve the crisis.
In an interview with Russia’s state-run RIA Novosti news agency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was “really interested in a peaceful settlement of the crisis in Ukraine.”
He said other Western proposals, such as imposing more sanctions against Russian interests, isolating Russia or the possible arming of Ukrainian forces, would only destabilize the situation.
The European Union’s Foreign Affairs Council agreed on additional sanctions Monday against Russian and separatist interests but said their implementation would be delayed for a week to “give space for current diplomatic efforts.”
Meanwhile, fighting continued Tuesday in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with the strategically important town of Debaltseve at the center of the conflict.
Fighting for Debaltseve
A spokesman for the government’s military operation against the separatists, Vladislav Seleznyov, told a media briefing that the militants were consistently shelling Debaltseve — and that it’s currently the most dangerous place in the country.
“The city infrastructure is increasingly devastated,” he said. “Ukrainian armed forces are holding their lines of defense and are not going to leave their positions.”
Seven Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 23 injured overnight, he said.
Eduard Basurin, deputy defense minister of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic, said Tuesday that fighting for the town continued. A day earlier, Basurin told CNN the separatist forces had Debaltseve “entirely surrounded.”
About 55 miles (89 kilometers) to the northwest, shelling in the town of Kramatorsk on Tuesday killed five people and injured 16, Donetsk authorities said. They said the rockets had been fired by GRAD systems, which the Russian armed forces have.
Kramatorsk, deep inside Ukrainian-held territory, is the location of the main base for the government’s military operation against the separatists, which it calls the Anti-Terrorist Operation.
Each side has accused the other of shelling civilian areas in the course of the conflict.
Arms question
As preparations for the planned Minsk talks continue, questions remain over apparent differences between European leaders and the United States about whether to arm the Ukrainian government forces.
Even as they tried to present a unified front at a media briefing Monday, it was clear that it’s an area where President Barack Obama and Merkel don’t quite see eye to eye.
Obama said he hasn’t decided yet whether to send arms to Ukrainian forces defending their country against Russian-backed separatists, and he hasn’t set a deadline for when he will. But he insists it’s an option that should be considered if diplomacy fails.
Any weapons the United States sends would not be meant to help Ukraine defeat the Russian army in an all-out battle, Obama said, but “to simply to defend itself.”
Merkel favors a different approach. “I’ve always said I don’t see a military solution to this conflict,” she said. “We have to put all our efforts in bringing about a diplomatic solution.”
Both Obama and Merkel stressed the importance of working together.
If the Minsk talks fail, U.S. lawmakers will probably ratchet up pressure on Obama to send weapons to Ukraine.
Russia has steadfastly denied accusations that it’s sending forces and weapons into Ukraine. But top Western and Ukrainian leaders have said there isn’t any doubt that Russia is behind surging violence and separatists’ efforts to take over territory in eastern Ukraine.
The conflict erupted in the spring, shortly after Ukrainian and U.S. officials say Russia flooded Crimea with troops ahead of its widely disputed annexation of the territory.
Hope on the horizon?
The big challenge facing Putin, Poroshenko, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande in Minsk is whether they can reach a peace agreement that will stick.
A peace agreement was signed in September in Minsk. It called for a drawback of heavy weapons, self-rule in the eastern regions and a buffer zone to be set up along the Russia-Ukraine border.
But the agreement quickly disintegrated, and the violence continued.
The new plan envisions a much broader demilitarized zone to run along the current front lines.
All the while, the crisis in Ukraine, which stemmed from a trade agreement, has killed more than 5,000 people, including many civilians, and forced more than 1.5 million from their homes, according to the United Nations.