October baseball is back, and back with a bang! Tuesday night’s wild 9-8 Royals win was sloppy, long…but a WHOLE lot of fun to watch. A wise boxing man once said ‘styles make fights’, and as long as the Royals are still playing we are likely to see some interesting clashes of style – but more on that below.
As I did last year, I’m going to rank the teams in several categories, then rank them on my probability that they advance to the World Series. The shorter the series, the more likely an upset (as Tuesday’s game proves, ANYTHING can happen in one game – the Royals’ weak offense scored a week’s worth of runs in that game!); so I’m not going to try to predict individual series until we get to the ‘Fall Classic’.
OFFENSE
1.) Angels
2.) Tigers
3.) Orioles
4.) Royals
This is a VERY close call between LA and Detroit, and it really comes down to a deep lineup vs. a top-heavy lineup. The Angels have the probable MVP – and arguably the top player in the game – in Mike Trout, but after him there’s not a lot of star power. No one hit .300, only Trout and Chis Ianetta draw many walks, Pujols and Hamilton are shells of their former selves, and no one on the roster other than Trout or Pujols, hit more than 17 homers. However, there are no glaring holes, either – every regular hit over .250 with 20+ doubles and at least SOME power.
The Tigers boast a fearsome threesome in Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and JD Martinez. 3B Nick Catellanos is still improving – and they still are getting solid (but declining) production from Torii Hunter and Ian Kinsler. The problems are C, SS, and CF. Catcher Alex Avila hit .218 with below-average power, CF was fine until they traded Austin Jackson in the Price trade, and SS has been a black hole for this team all season. It’s hard to have a consistent offense when the bottom third of your lineup is that weak, so I’m reluctantly placing the Tigers behind the Angels.
The Orioles are a throwback to the late-90’s AL offenses – no speed, all power. They stole only 44 bases all season, but hit a league-leading 211 home runs – led by the resurgent Nelson Cruz’ 40 bombs. Unfortunately, much of that firepower is MIA – Chris Davis (26HR) is suspended for substance abuse, and Manny Machado (12 HR in 82 games) blew out his knee and is out for the season. Steve Pearce (remember him, Pirate fans?) has been a BIG surprise – he entered the season with 17 homers in over 700 at-bats, then hit 21 in 338 ABs this season. If Pearce is productive this offense is deep enough to be a real threat – but if he turns back in to a ‘Punch & Judy’ hitter, this lineup doesn’t have enough depth to consistently compete with the top two teams.
Kansas City is the runt of the litter here – they have absolutely NO power (95 Homers, last in the league and by far the worst among playoff teams), and they don’t take walks (again last in the league) so their on-base percentage is batting-average driven. What they do is make contact (fewest strikeouts in the league), run (most steals), and bunt (third most). It’s the modern incarnation of the 1985 Cardinals offense – and while it didn’t add up to many runs in the regular season, you saw on Tuesday how much pressure their speed puts on a weak catcher. In a short series, sometimes ‘small ball’ plays big – and while I certainly don’t expect another nine-run outburst from this group, they are well-positioned to win low-scoring games if their pitching can hold up.
STARTING PITCHING
1.) Tigers
2.) Angels
3.) Royals
4.) Orioles
Frankly the Tigers are way ahead of the pack here, even with Verlander’s struggles this season. Any team that can run Scherzer, Price, Verlander, and Porcello at you in a short series is going to be tough to deal with – and imagine if Anibal Sanchez were healthy! The only danger here is putting Verlander’s history over his present performance – he’c CLEARLY #4 on this list this season, but he’s slotted at #2 for the opening series. If he’s starting a Game 6 or 7 in the LCS or World Series, something went wrong for Detroit.
The other three teams are VERY closely bunched, and if Matt Shoemaker’s oblique injury pops up again for LA, they move to the bottom of this list. I put them #2 because Shoemaker, Weaver, and CJ Wilson give them a potent front three. The fourth starter won’t be that great, but then most playoff teams run into that issue. Weaver and (especially) Wilson were not as dominant this season as they have been in the past, but they were still plenty good.
KC has James ‘Big Game’ Shields, but the x-factor is the guy who was very nearly the goat Tuesday – rookie phenom Yordano Ventura. He was working on one day of rest after throwing 70+ pitches Sunday, so let’s give him a bit of a pass for that (but NOT manager Ned Yost – more on that below). Ventura throws hi-90’s gas and while he’s a tad wild, when he’s on he can dominate a start. Danny Duffy was effective but not overpowering, and fourth starter Jeremy Guthrie is average at best.
Baltimore is not known for their starting pitching, but I’ll bet you didn’t realize that they had the third-best ERA in the league, and of these four teams only the Royals had a better ERA from their starters this season. Now, the Tigers were much lower on that scale, because their 4th/5th starters were horrible most of the year, so the stat isn’t all-encompassing – but the fact is, Baltimore had a perfectly acceptable rotation, and they have an ace in the making in Chris Tillman. Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez are all above average (albeit none of them dominating), allowing the O’s to stay within range most games. It’s certainly not a GREAT rotation, but it’s better than most think.
RELIEF PITCHING
1.) Royals
2.) Angels
3.) Orioles
4.) Tigers
The Royals’ bullpen is one of the most dominating in recent memory – Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera combined for these stats: 204 innings, 129 hits, 29 earned runs, 69 walks, 268 strikeouts. That’s a 1.28 ERA combined, folks, and it meant that if the Royals got a lead to the seventh inning, the game was essentially over. Now, a good/smart manager would look at that, realize off days mean you can extend the pen a bit, and be able to cover the last four innings with those guys during the postseason…but the Royals don’t have a manager like that (again, more on that below).
There’s a significant gap between the Royals and everyone else. I give the Angels #2 because Huston Street and Joe smith are a formidable 1-2 punch, and there’s plenty of capable depth behind them (but no lefty reliever threw more than 25 innings – which could be a real issue in the postseason).
Baltimore has a legitimate claim to #2 here; they have an excellent top-4 in Britton, O’Day, Matusz, and Hunter (with two of them being lefties to boot). They have precious little after that, though, and I rate Street/Smith just a bit higher than Britton/O’Day.
Detroit is far and away the worst in the ‘pen (AGAIN). This seems to be a chronic issue they tried to fix by adding Joe Nathan, but it appears he may be nearing the end (29 walks, 60 hits in 58 innings with a 4.81 ERA). The middle relief has been inconsistent as well, and the one move I applauded, trading for Joakim Soria, hasn’t worked out either; as he was almost immediately injured.
DEFENSE/MANAGER/INTANGIBLES
1.) Orioles
2.) Angels
3.) Tigers
4.) Royals
The Orioles play excellent defense, and Buck Showalter is one of the best managers in the game – where he goes, teams immediately improve. The Angels also have an excellent defense, Mike Scioscia is an above-average manager, and there’s a ‘swagger’ back with the Angels that was gone for a few seasons. Detroit’s rookie manager, Brad Ausmus, has done good work – but he is hamstrung by a porous, aging defense and a flammable bullpen.
Then there’s Kansas City – they are fast and typically very good on defense, but the incompetence of their manager, Ned Yost, puts them last on this list. He’s addicted to small ball, especially the bunt – on a team where outs are especially precious, giving them away for free is a VERY bad idea. More than that, he seems overwhelmed at times. Tuesday night was a perfect example: 3-2 lead, 6th inning, and the best trio of relievers in MLB rested and ready to go…yet Yost brought in a rookie, who had started TWO days earlier! Regardless of the outcome (it was bad, Moss hit the go-ahead HR), the decision was indefensible. As Joe Sheehan has pointed out, this team won in spite of their manager all season long – and did so again Tuesday night. It’s a good bet that his bizarre maneuvers end up costing the Royals a game this month before it’s all said and done…and I think that’s too much of a handicap for this team to overcome.
LIKELIHOOD OF WINNING A.L. PENNANT
1.) Angels
2.) Tigers
3.) Orioles
4.) Royals
Look, I can’t stress it too many times – this is more or less a crapshoot, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN in a short series. However, the Angels got a very favorable matchup with the light-hitting Royals. I expect Yost to continue to mismanage his roster, and the Angels’ superior offense should carry the day.
The other series is all but impossible to predict – two heavyweight offenses slugging it out, one with a strong rotation and a weak bullpen, the other with a decent rotation and a good bullpen. I like the stars on the Tigers’ offense to carry them in this series, but an Orioles win here would not shock me in the least.
If the Royals pull off the upset, I will once again have them as underdogs, especially against the slick-fielding Orioles. KC matches up MUCH better with Detroit and their plodding defense, but the Angels are better than either team both on the hill and at the plate.
I’ll have the NL preview Friday!
I welcome your feedback! Email me at dsglass74@gmail.com anytime.