STARTING ROTATION:
James McDonald – I’ve said for two seasons that McDonald had the stuff to be a good pitcher, and he has broken out in a big way in 2012 – 114 innings, 2.59 ERA, only 84 hits and 36 walks against 102 strikeouts. Fatigue is a possibility, as McDonald figures to blow by his previous high in innings by September – but if not for McCutchen’s greatness, McDonald would be MVP of the team.
A.J. Burnett – What a move this was for GM Neal Huntingdon – Burnett was given away by the Yankees for a song, with New York even picking up most of his salary – but at age 35, he clearly still has something left in the tank. His overall numbers are good – 10-3, 3.78 ERA, 100 innings, 97 hits, 86 strikeouts – but he’s had one bad start and one terrible start (12 runs in two innings) that skew the numbers. Take out those two starts and he’s been amazingly good – and by all accounts a great influence on the rest of the staff as well. McDonald and Burnett have been aces thus far and if the Pirates are to stay in contention, they have to keep it going.
Jeff Karstens – Karstens was injured for much of the first half and struggled at first after returning, but his last two starts before the All-Star break showed what he is capable of: 15 innings, eight hits, two runs, three walks, 15 strikeouts. Karstens, at his best, is an ideal #3 starter – he works fast, throws strikes, changes speeds, and almost always keeps his team in the game. If he’s healthy I expect more of the same down the stretch.
Kevin Correia – Correia has been a whipping boy among die-hard fans most of the first half, and I also wondered at times if he should be replaced – but his overall numbers are perfectly acceptable for a #4/#5 starter: 97 innings, 96 hits, 28 walks. His problems are homers (14, a high total) and lack of strikeouts (only 41). His 4.25 ERA is a direct result of the homers, which I expect to decrease (24 is the most he’s ever allowed) – but I also expect he’ll allow a few more singles, evening things out. If he throws 190-200 innings with an ERA around 4.00, what more can you expect from a back-of-the-rotation starter?
Erik Bedard – I was as pumped about Bedard as anyone this spring – I figured that if he was healthy, the lefty-friendly dimensions at PNC and his track record of success would make him an ideal fit. The plan looked good through May – his ERA was 3.12 at that point – but in seven starts since, five have been very poor and his overall ERA is now 4.80. It’s nearing the time to consider other options.
Many will suggest a trade for a big name, but I strongly favor an internal solution – Jeff Locke and Rudy Owens have pitched extremely well at AAA Indianapolis all year, and both are deserving of a shot in the majors. I favor Locke because he has slightly better raw stuff and is a lefty – but Owens has shown exceptional control at every level and has a chance to be similar to Karstens in the end. Neither will ever be an ace, but both could be steady at the very least – something Bedard quite frankly has not been in any way.
BULLPEN
Jason Grilli – Huntingdon has shown a remarkable knack for building a great bullpen out of other teams’ castoffs, and Grilli is the latest (and best) example. He was toiling in the minors a year ago – today he has a 1.82 ERA. In 34 innings he’s allowed only 18 hits, 16 walks and a whopping 55 strikeouts! He’s allowed four home runs which is a little high; and I expect he will regress somewhat in the second half – but he’s been among the league’s best relievers all season, and is perhaps the top set-up man in the NL today.
Joel Hanrahan – superficially his numbers are quite good – only 20 hits in 35 innings, 36 strikeouts, a 2.31 ERA, 24 saves…but the red flag is the walks: 19 of them, six in his last nine innings of work (against only three strikeouts in that span). His control, especially of his slider, looks to me to be on the verge of really leaving him, which is why I am advocating an off-the-wall idea: trade him while he still has value, use the return to get a bat, and promote top prospect Garret Cole. Cole isn’t ready to start in the majors, but his high-90’s heat and good control should thrive in a 1-inning role, and it would be a good way to ease him into the majors. In any case, I’m very concerned about Hanrahan going forward.
Brad Lincoln: Average as a starter, excellent in relief – the heir apparent to Hanrahan in my opinion. Added bonus: he can work 2-3 innings and give the bullpen a break when needed. He was taken ahead of Tim Lincecum in the draft – for years that looked like a terrible move, but it looks a lot better for the Bus in 2012!
Chris Resop, Juan Cruz, Jared Hughes: Dime-a-dozen mid-90’s righties, good in middle relief but prone to blow-up innings. Hughes has a devastating sinker when he’s on, and these guys serve their role well, but they are best used in low-leverage situations.
Tony Watson: the Pirates really need an effective lefty in the ‘pen, and frankly Watson isn’t getting it done. The grand slam he allowed Friday skewed his numbers, but he hasn’t been that effective against lefties all year (.300 with a .520 slugging%). If Huntingdon doesn’t make a big-splash type deal, I look for him to at least find a lefty specialist for the bullpen.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.