Albert Pujols is on the verge of a serious decline unless he makes a major adjustment. I’m a HUGE Pujols fan – I love his intensity, the way he seems to always rise to a challenge, and I would like nothing more than for him to have another ten great seasons and retire as one of the top five hitters of all time. However, I am beginning to have doubts as to what he will be able to do in FIVE years, much less ten, and the problem is his strike zone judgment. This season Pujols walked less often than at any point in his career, and he had the lowest batting average as well. The obvious counter-argument is that pitchers threw him more strikes because of Berkman and Holliday, and that might be partially true, but I’ve watched him carefully in the postseason – he’s simply swinging at a TON of pitches outside the strike zone. The home run he hit 430 feet the other night was almost certainly a ball; more damning was the pitch he swung through on a 3-2 count in Game Four, which was at least 6” outside and led to a double play (the runner on 1st was running) and the end of St. Louis’ chances that night.
My take on this, quite simply, is that Albert has dominated for so long that he now thinks he can hit any pitch within reach and hit it hard…but he’s harming his team, and if this becomes a permanent feature of his game he will soon not be able to dominate. As he ages he will stop being able to handle pitches outside the zone, and until he lays off he will see a steady diet of those offerings. Pujols needs to remember Ted Williams’ first rule of batting: “get a good ball to hit”. If he regains his previously strong batting eye, I think that he will play well for years.
The Cubs will win the NL Central within four years. Chicago introduced Theo Epstein as their new GM this week, and while there is plenty to criticize about Epstein’s last year with Boston, a look at the bigger picture suggests Chicago’s fortunes could turn rapidly. The Cubs are by far the biggest market in the NL Central, with more financial resources than any of their rivals – the problem has been poor drafting, terrible free-agent signings, and a general lack of accountability (sound familiar, Pirate fans?). Epstein made many questionable big-name free-agent signings late in his Boston tenure, but he took a poor farm system and made it one of baseball’s best, and he made many shrewd trades and found several ‘diamonds in the rough’, most notably David Ortiz.
For 10 years he battled the Yankees to more or less a draw – the Yankees were the better regular-season team, but Boston won two titles while the Yanks won one – and with no comparable juggernaut to face in the Central (or pretty much anywhere in the NL for that matter), Epstein has a chance to build something of a dynasty in ChiTown if he still has his talent evaluation skills. The next year or two will be pretty rough – the Cubs are loaded with untradeable contracts for mediocre or declining players – but as those deals expire and the farm system (presumably) gets a boost, look for the Cubs to be in the mix for 2015 and beyond.
On to football…
Matt McGloin should be Penn State’s starter, and if Bolden tries to transfer, Penn State should happily oblige him. I’m treading into my colleague Chris Morelli’s territory a bit here, and while I didn’t always agree with Chris’ reasoning, I’m 100% behind his main thesis – McGloin has EARNED the right to play every down for the Lions. I’m not sure what went down in the offseason to cause Bolden to get every start, and at the beginning of the season I was actually in Bolden’s corner – I thought he was the more athletically gifted QB and more mobile, traits I expected to come in handy with PSU’s young offensive line – but in truth, he has looked mediocre to downright bad in just about every game he has started. McGloin is no star, and he still makes too many poor decisions (except against Northwestern, but then their porous ‘D’ makes every opponent look like the ’94 Lion offense), but he has the superior stats and the offense seems to respond when he is under center.
As for Bolden, he had his chance and he blew it – if he asks to transfer I believe it would set Penn State up for the future. With McGloin and Bolden in the mix, it’s unlikely a top QB recruit would choose Penn State – but if McGloin is the only experienced QB on the roster, a star QB might want to come and try to beat him out, figuring at worst he’d only sit a year.
Notre Dame will join a football conference within three years. The Irish are part of the Big East in every sport EXCEPT football – because traditionally, their football program was powerful enough to stand on its own merits, powerful enough even to merit an exclusive deal with NBC. However, the program is not nearly the force it once was, and with the (almost) certain demise of the Big East as a BCS-worthy football conference I predict that Notre Dame will land either in the Big 12 or an expanded version of the Big Ten in a few years.
The 49ers will earn the NFC #2 seed, and the Texans will earn the AFC #2 seed. The explanation in both cases is similar – weak divisions and relatively easy non-divisional schedules. The 49ers are 5-1, they have five more divisional games – you have to figure they will win at least four of those. They also play the Browns, the Redskins, and the Giants the next three weeks, and they figure to be favored in each of those games. Even if they lose to the Steelers and Ravens (and that’s no given with their defense), you are looking at 12-4 or at worst 11-5. The NFC East is beating up each other, and the NFC South is likely to do the same.
Houston doesn’t have quite as favorable a schedule, but their division will serve up at least three more wins, and they are likely to be favored in every game left on the schedule with the possible exception of Atlanta. If Andre Johnson returns healthy, this team should go 12-4 or 11-5 as well, and I think 11-5 is the best record one can expect from either the Ravens or Steelers at this point.
Tim Tebow will be out of the NFL in five years. Look, the kid has spunk, he’s a good runner, etc. etc…but he faced an 0-5 Miami team last week, and threw for a grand total of 40 yards through three quarters. Yes, he led two scoring drives and yes, he made a couple of brilliant throws and a good audible for a 2-point conversion – but the ‘he’s a winner!!!’ hype is just over-the-top for me. If his leadership/charisma/whatever is so great, why did the offense produce exactly NOTHING for the first 50 minutes of the game? Did his ‘intangibles’ recover the onside kick after the first score, or cause Miami to fumble in OT? Frankly, he played a poor game that was masked only because the Broncos pulled out a late win against a terrible team. I hope I’m wrong, the league needs more star players who are good people and there’s no question that Tebow is a high-character guy…but let’s not let his character hide his subpar play.
That’s all I have this week – next week, we’ll review the NFL as it nears the halfway point.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.