Detroit vs. Texas
Stats: Most of the relevant stats are the same as in my division preview a week ago, which I linked above – bottom line, both teams have strong offenses (Detroit more than you might think, because their ballpark suppresses offense), but Texas’ pitching is deeper. One potentially important item: Texas hit over 200 home runs this season, and Detroit’s starters gave a few up – in Verlander’s case, home runs were the only small chink in his armor (24 allowed). Max Scherzer gave up 29 in only 195 innings. Both of those guys are key for Detroit in this series, and they have to keep the ball in the yard. Walks were not a problem during the regular season for either staff, but Detroit walked 21 in only 44 innings during the ALDS – they cannot allow that many baserunners in this series.
Surprising playoff performers: For the Tigers, Scherzer’s excellent start in Game 2 and strong relief appearance in Game 5 stand out, and on offense Delmon Young set a Tigers record by hitting three home runs in the series. In five games the Tigers only got one quality start, and that was from Scherzer.
For Texas, I was surprised by how dominant Colby Lewis was in his start, but overall their pitching performed about as I expected against a mediocre Rays offense. Adrian Beltre (3 HRs in one game) and Mike Napoli were the only hitters that had a good series vs. the Rays – I expected some offensive struggles against the Rays’ good pitching, but batting .211 for the series as a team was unacceptably poor – they will have to hit a lot better against the Tigers to advance.
Keys to the series: For Detroit, the pressure is on Justin Verlander. Thanks to Game 1’s rainout in the last series, he is set up to start Game 1 of the ALCS and at least one more, possibly two more games depending on how aggressive Jim Leyland uses him (my guess is he goes in Games 1 and 5 and is available in Game 7 for an inning if needed). Either way, he’s the best starter on either team, and Detroit needs two great starts from him – if Detroit only splits the Verlander starts, it’s hard to imagine them winning three of the other five games.
For Texas, the big bats have to produce – particularly Josh Hamilton. Detroit has no lefty starters and only one reliable lefty reliever, so Hamilton should see plenty of right-handed pitchers – and over his career he hits righties about 50 points higher. As the only really dangerous lefty bat, Hamilton’s performance will be critical.
Final thoughts and prediction: Originally I was thinking Texas would have a fairly easy time of it in this series – but Verlander pitching Game 1 and the Rangers’ lack of lefty bats are both a huge advantage for the Tigers. Having said that, I still think Texas has to be favored…they still have the deeper rotation, deeper bullpen, and deeper, more powerful lineup. I expect Verlander to be very strong in Game 1, but in the end I think the RANGERS WIN IN SIX.
As mentioned above, look for the NL preview over the weekend, most likely Sunday morning.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.