WESTERN CONFERENCE
15.) Edmonton Oilers – Should improve, but still lacking the pieces to be a true contender.
14.)Phoenix Coyotes – Maybe I’m underestimating them and the abilities of their coach Dave Tippett, but between the league owning the team, the continued exodus of talent (Bryzgalov’s departure is one of many examples), and the depth of the conference I see a steep decline in the desert.
13.) Dallas Stars – Losing Brad Richards really hurts this team, and I don’t see any free agent moves or trades to offset that loss – an already below-average offense should really flounder this season.
12.) St. Louis Blues – Aside from G Jaroslav Halak, there’s very little star-caliber power on this team; the offense is particularly mediocre. One of the lowest-ceiling teams in the league.
11.) Calgary Flames – Their window has closed; time to think about a rebuild, if Iginla will agree to a trade it would accelerate the process.
10.) Minnesota Wild – I don’t get the Havlat-for-Heatley deal, both are 30 years old, put up similar (disappointing ) numbers last year, and both teams needed to get younger. There are a lot of Penguin castoffs on this team, probably because they are now coached by ex-Pens assistant Mike Yeo.
9.) Colorado Avalanche – The team with the worst goals-against last season brought in a whole new goalie corps in Varlomov and Giguere. Varlomov, in particular, could be the answer if he can stay healthy. We’ll find out if the problem was the goalies or the defensemen in Denver – I’m betting on a big improvement, but not quite enough to make the playoffs.
8.) Anaheim Ducks – They were struggling for half of the season then got on a major roll – but they allowed the third most goals of any playoff team, their scoring is top-heavy, and I’m not sold on their defense. Still a dangerous team, however.
7.) Detroit Red Wings – Age is beginning to show on this squad – Rafalski, Modano, Osgood, and Draper all retired, and 41-year-old Nick Lidstrom will slow down soon. Their top seven scorers a year ago are all 31 or older now, and there’s precious little young star talent on the way. Still a playoff team, but I believe they will struggle more this season.
6.) Nashville Predators – “In Barry They Trust”, Barry Trotz has been Nasville’s coach since the franchise was born. They never score many goals, but they have had a winning record for seven straight seasons, and their blueline corps rivals any in the league.
5.) Columbus Blue Jackets – My surprise team for 2011. I think the addition of Jeff Carter is exactly what this team needed to get ‘over the hump’; however, aside from G Steve Mason (who faces a crossroads season), the team is actually not that young and they need to win soon.
4.) San Jose Sharks – As I said above, the Havlat trade makes little sense to me for either team, and while San Jose has a nice mix of old and young players I cannot help but wonder if their window is also starting to close – they have earned 100+ points in six of the past seven years, and also have made the conference finals three times but never played for the Cup. I think that they will backslide a bit during the regular season but if Niemi can back up his stellar 2010-11 season with another strong campaign, the Sharks are still a legit title contender.
3.) Chicago Blackhawks – Last season Chicago had to deal with massive salary-cap issues which completely changed their team, as well as the usual Cup-losing ‘hangover’…but by the end of the season, they were almost as dangerous as in 2010 and they almost knocked Vancouver out in Round 1. Their offseason was much more stable this time around, I still really like their core talent, and if Detroit slips the Blackhawks are the logical candidate to win the division. My biggest concern is in goal – Corey Crawford had a great season, but if he slips this year it could cost Chicago dearly.
2.) Los Angeles Kings – The Kings made some bold moves in the offseason, most notably trading for Mike Richards and signing Simon Gagne. The Kings were one of the best defensive teams in the league last year, but their offense was below par – these moves should help them score more goals. In addition, they gave up their top prospect in the Richards deal, an indication that they believe their time is now – expect another bold move at some point in the season if they detect a hole that needs to be filled. On paper San Jose is still the better team and frankly I think those teams will battle all season for the division title, but I’m playing a hunch and saying LA will finish with the higher seed (not that that matters once the playoffs roll around).
1.) Vancouver Canucks – Yes, I’m picking them to have the best record in the West, but I think they will be a weaker team this season, and making the Cup Finals again would really surprise me. They lost a lot of their depth – players like Christian Ehrhoff and Tanner Glass don’t get a lot of press or score a lot of goals, but they are very important complementary pieces. The loss of Ehrhoff in particular weakens the defense of this team. Having said that, their core talent remains strong, and they play in the NHL’s weakest division – which is just as important when forecasting wins. Being able to beat up on the Northwest Division for almost 1/3 of their schedule puts them a leg up on the other Western contenders, and should allow them to finish with the best record in the West.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
15.) Ottawa Senators – I forecast their downfall a season ago, and it’s going to get worse before it gets better. This team needs a total rebuild from the ground up, like Pittsburgh did a decade ago.
14.) Florida Panthers – They lost G Tomas Vokoun and replaced him with Jose ‘three-or-more’ Theodore, which turns their top strength into a weakness. There’s SOME talent here, but not enough to contend.
13.) New Jersey Devils – I know they made a big turnaround late last season, but they still scored only 174 goals – by far the worst in the league – and they are depending on two goalies Brodeur and Hedberg, who are each over 38 years old. The return of Zach Parise will help, but this is a team on the decline.
12.) Carolina Hurricanes – This is a risk, picking them this low, because they have a core of good talent at forward and they barely missed the playoffs – but they lost Erik Cole (26 goals) and Joe Corvo (their top-scoring defenseman), and I don’t see anyone brought in to replace them. They gave up more goals than they scored last year, and I cannot see them being a top offensive club this season either.
11.) New York Islanders – I was all set to pick them a little higher, then I actually looked at their roster – yes, getting D Mark Streit back helps, but this team allowed almost the second most goals in the conference and their goalie situation still seems unsettled. Tavares is a keeper, but Okposo appears to be a bust and I need to see Moulson and Grabner repeat their amazing seasons. The Isles have a lot of upside and every team from here up could make the playoffs and I wouldn’t be too surprised, but I think this team is still a few pieces short.
10.) Montreal Canadiens – Their margin of error is razor-thin – they never score many goals, so they are dependent on great defense and goaltending. Carey Price was fantastic a year ago, but I need to see that again before I put him in the top echelon of goaltenders.
9.) Winnipeg Jets (formerly Atlanta Thrashers)– I was actually down on their chances until I took a closer look at the roster – there’s a TON of young talent at forward here, this team should improve offensively. The issues are on defense, they gave up the most goals in the conference last season. They made a few moves to shore up the ‘D’, but overall they (smartly) decided to let this group grow up together. They won’t make the playoffs – their nightmarish travel schedule hurts them (look up where Winnipeg is, and realize that they are still playing an ‘eastern’ schedule this season) as much as their porous ‘D’ – but this is a team to watch in 2013.
8.) Toronto Maple Leafs – GM Brian Burke has worked feverishly the past three years to rebuild the Leafs, and while this team still has some big flaws I believe it can sneak into the playoffs. The biggest change is on the blueline – the addition of defensemen John Michel-Liles and Dion Phaneuf are real upgrades, and if G James Reamer can prove his rookie season was no fluke, their goals-against should come down considerably. They still are a bit short on offense and it will be a struggle, but I think Toronto’s rabid fan base will get to experience playoff hockey again.
7.) Tampa Bay Lightning – Teams that make a huge jump have a tendency to regress the year after – and in Tampa’s case, that is exacerbated by their reliance on older players. I know the narrative is that this is a ‘young’ team, but aside from Stamkos and Hedman, they really are an OLD team – Lecavalier is 31, St. Louis is 36 (and he was their leading scorer), and G Dwayne Roloson is 42! They also lost Simon Gagne, and didn’t make any big moves to upgrade their roster (Garon for Smith at backup goalie is a wash). This is still a playoff-caliber team if they get even decent goaltending, but their reliance on Roloson is troubling, and if their defense collapses and/or St. Louis shows his age, this team could finish well back.
6.) Buffalo Sabres – It’s interesting, Buffalo is thought of as a top defensive team thanks to G Ryan Miller, but a weak offensive club – in truth, last season they were a good scoring team (more goals than Pittsburgh or Washington), but a below-average defensive team (second most goals allowed of any Eastern playoff team). To their credit, Buffalo must have realized their need on defense, because their biggest off-season move was signing D Christian Ehrhoff, a premier two-way defenseman. They also added Ville Leino from Philly, an underrated forward. Buffalo always seems to hang around the playoff picture, and with their improved defense and the consistent coaching of Lindy Ruff, I expect them to make the postseason again.
5.) Philadelphia Flyers – Philly is one of the NHL’s premier franchises and GM Paul Holmgren has made many wise moves over the past four years, so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt with his moves this offseason – except for the Bryzgalov move (more on that in a second). I’ve heard the talk that Richards and Carter were problems in the locker room and that the whole team partied too much and didn’t work hard enough – true or not, if the GM felt that way there had to be changes, and trading the team’s captain certainly had to send a message to the players left on the team. Holmgren got good talent in return for Richards in top prospect Braydon Schenn, so in the long run those moves shouldn’t hurt the team. The moves at goalie are hard for me to figure – all season Sergei Bobrovsky was great, then he had one bad period in Game 2 against the Sabres and he’s benched, never to return (and his backups were mostly terrible). Then in the offseason the team trades for Bryzgalov, who just got TORCHED in the playoffs, signs him to a huge contract – when they had a player likely to be as good in Bobrovsky? I just don’t get that.
Anyway, the Flyers have more than enough talent to make the playoffs again, and if Jagr isn’t completely washed up and Pronger can stay healthy, they are still a fringe Cup contender – but I think they will go out in the first or second round, barring further moves.
4.) New York Rangers – This was a better club than you might have thought last year – they scored 35 more goals than they allowed, and that was primarily due to adding Marian Gaborik and the continued development of Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. Adding Brad Richards gives the Rangers a very deep, versatile offense – and with Henrik Lundqvist in goal, their goal prevention is always excellent. New York looks to me like Pittsburgh’s primary competition for the Atlantic division this season.
3.) Boston Bruins – Let me say up front that the top three clubs could end up in any order, it’s likely to be an extremely close race, and in the end the seedings don’t really matter – the only shock here would be if any of these clubs finishes lower than fifth in the conference. I’m taking Boston third because as good as Tim Thomas was a year ago – and he was truly brilliant – the odds are overwhelming that he’ll regress considerably this season. Boston allowed the second fewest goals in the league a year ago, and I seriously doubt they will repeat that – they will still be a good defensive club, just not among the elite. Offensively, they should still score with anyone – their top-4 playoff scorers were all 25 or younger, and if Tyler Seguin can gain consistency, he could more than make up for the losses of Recchi and Ryder. The scoring should be as deep as anyone in the East, and while the age and depth of the defense corps worries me a little, it should not keep Boston from winning the Northeast Division.
2.) Pittsburgh Penguins – The 2011 Pens were an amazing group….take the top-2 scorers from any NHL team, and odds are that they would decline significantly. Not so in Pittsburgh, they found a way to win without Crosby or Malkin for the last three months of the season…unfortunately the lack of scoring caught up to them in the postseason. For 2011-12, the best news is the imminent return of Crosby, who has been practicing for weeks and says he is symptom-free – but almost as good is the news that Malkin has re-dedicated himself to conditioning and has something to prove. The Pens’ strength coach went to Russia to observe Malkin and came back extremely impressed, and Malkin has dominated much of the preseason.
The rest of the team is as strong as ever – the loss of Rupp and Talbot hurts chemistry, but neither was an offensive powerhouse and the Pens have a logjam of 3rd/4th line forwards anyway. The defense is 7-deep and there are two exceptional prospects (Morrow and Despres) waiting in the wings – I expect another ‘defense-for-offense’ trade this spring. The only major signing was Steve Sullivan, who has had major injury issues…but if Sullivan is healthy, he will be a great asset on the power play. A full season from James Neal should help as well; hopefully he settles in and provides the 20-30 goals expected.
The Pens will make the playoffs under almost any foreseeable circumstances – but to advance and win the Cup, they need Sid and Geno healthy, and a viable power play. Should be an interesting season in the ‘Burgh!
1.) Washington Capitals – The Caps really tried hard to change their ways a year ago, and in fact they may have taken it to an extreme. They wanted to get better in their own end, stop getting into high-scoring games, and learn how to win ‘playoff-style’ hockey. In the process they improved their goals against by 36, putting them among the conference leaders in goals-against…but they gutted their vaunted offense, going from 318 goals in 2010 to 224 in 2011, which was seventh out of the eight Eastern playoff teams! After a rather convincing Round 1 series win, the Caps meekly bowed out in Round 2, and several of their top players were no-shows (again) in the postseason. Washington decided the problem was in goal, so they traded Varlamov to Colorado (getting a #1 pick back – a great return), and signing Tomas Vokoun. I like Vokoun, but the combo of Varlamov and (especially) Micheal Neuvirth was outstanding a season ago, and Neuvirth’s playoff numbers (.912 sv%, 2.34 GAA) indicate he wasn’t the problem.
Aside from Vokoun the Caps’ moves were mostly minor and involved 3rd and 4th-line players…the hope for the Caps rests on the return to dominance of Ovechkin and a rebound from Nick Backstrom. Ovechkin scored 32 goals and 85 points, which was good, but not nearly the dominant performance expected – it was his career low in goals by 14. Backstrom was far worse – only 65 points and 17 goals, and no goals and only two assists in the playoffs. Washington’s scoring depth isn’t nearly what it used to be, these two HAVE to step up if Washington is going to dominate again…however, they still play in the East’s worst division, they still have a ton of weapons, and while I’m leery of Backstrom, I think Ovechkin will find another gear and allow the Caps to win their division again. The playoffs…that’s another story.
STANLEY CUP PREDICTION – Pens over Blackhawks, unless Sid has another concussion setback – if he misses the playoffs again, then I say Blackhawks over Caps.