An exciting first round ended painfully for Pens fans, and we’ll talk about what happened to Pittsburgh at the end – but first, eight teams advanced and there are some very intriguing matchups in this round, let’s take a look at them – with actual series previews this time.
Western Conference
Vancouver vs. Nashville: Yes, Game One is already in the books, and the 1-0 score doesn’t even come CLOSE to telling the story of Vancouver’s dominance of that game. If not for the work of their goalie, Pekka Rinne, that game could easily have been 5-0. The most worrisome aspect of that game for the Predators is how badly they got outworked – Nashville is never the most talented team, but they are a hard-working, grinding unit that usually makes teams work for everything they get. Last night, for whatever reason, they didn’t show up – and against a top-notch team like the Canucks, you simply cannot have any no-show games like that.
Vancouver barely escaped the first round, surviving Chicago’s overtime power play in Game 7 before finally putting the Blackhawks away – and all that after jumping out to a 3-0 series lead. I was very concerned when they benched Roberto Luongo for game six that they might break his confidence – instead it seems that it somehow steadied Luongo, as he has responded by allowing one goal in Game 7 and pitching a shutout last night. That Game 7 had the potential to either shatter this team’s confidence or strengthen their resolve – and so far it looks like the latter. If Luongo plays Rinne to a draw, Vancouver’s superior skill should win the day. Nashville’s only true advantage is on the blue line – they have one of the top defensemen in the league in Shea Weber and good depth – but I think now that the Canucks conquered their Chicago demons, they will roll over a gritty but outmanned Nashville team. VANCOUVER IN SIX.
San Jose vs. Detroit: Let me start by saying that I really have no feel for this series at all. Most of the time, going into a playoff series I have SOME sense of how I think things will play out – it’s often wrong, but it gives me a starting point. Detroit’s dominating sweep changed my perspective on the Wings – not just because they so easily dismissed the plucky Coyotes, but because it bought an aging team a week of much-needed rest. San Jose had a lot more trouble with the Kings than I expected…but at the same time, they showed amazing resilience by overcoming a 4-goal deficit to win game 3, then bouncing back from a bad home loss in game 5 to win game 6 on the road. One thing that has to improve is their goaltending – Antti Niemi was mediocre at best against the Kings, and he will have to raise his game considerably against the Red Wings. L.A. had enough weaknesses that San Jose could withstand a few off-games, but this round figures to be a VERY tight affair.
Detroit had no apparent weaknesses in the first round – but the most impressive stat for them was the fact that in four games, 13 different players scored a goal –a testament to Detroit’s amazing depth year after year. By contrast, in six games only 10 Sharks tallied a goal (although seven had two or more). Detroit’s defense will be tested a lot more by the Sharks’ forwards, and I expect a lot of Nic Lidstrom, seemingly ageless at 41, trying to shut down the Sharks’ top scorers. If Marleau, Thornton, and Heatley are kept in check, I believe Detroit will win this series – conversely, if Lidstrom and Co. aren’t up to the task, San Jose should advance. This should be a highly entertaining series – probably the best of the second-round matchups, with plenty of goals scored. Two weeks ago I’d have definitely picked San Jose, but Detroit’s dominance and lingering concerns about San Jose’s tendency to lose focus have changed my mind. I’m not sold on either goalie, but I like Howard a bit more than Niemi and as such I think DETROIT will WIN IN SIX.
Eastern Conference
Washington vs. Tampa Bay: I figured Washington would beat the Rangers, and I know that New York has trouble scoring goals – but even at that, the Caps impressed me. They showed remarkable defensive discipline for most of the series, but when they got behind 3-0 in the pivotal game 4, they hit the gas and went on the attack, coming all the way back to win. It’s this newfound versatility that made them my favorite to win the East, and I saw nothing in the last round to change my mind. If they get into trouble however, a few warning flags to watch for: goalie Michael Neuvirth played amazingly well, so well in fact that he almost certainly will regress a bit as the playoffs go on – no goalie can stop 95% of opposing shots for long. Also, the Caps’ top ‘shutdown’ defensive pairing, Carlson and Alzner, were a combined -7 against the Rangers – if they are assigned to the Stamkos-St.Louis-Lecavalier line, they simply have to do better. Finally, Nick Backstrom was invisible last round after his worst regular season yet – he has to contribute more than one or two points against the Lightning.
As for Tampa, anyone who watched the last round here in PA knows all about them – they have a hot goalie right now, they play a stifling 1-3-1 trap system, they depend on their top line for most of their consistent offense, and despite all of that they were only a goal or two from losing the series to a very offensively-challenged Pittsburgh team. Roloson has had the Caps’ number most of the year as well, and I don’t doubt that he will have a strong series – but the Caps have so much more firepower than Pittsburgh, I have to believe the Caps will average almost three goals per game in this series. Stamkos and Lecavalier HAVE to produce to the Lightning to have a chance. I’m not sold on Tampa’s defense corps at all – they looked immobile for most of the Pens’ series. Look for the Caps to try to attack with speed against this unit.
In the end, there are some possible ways for Tampa to advance – anything really is possible in the playoffs – but I come back to the fact that they held Pittsburgh to 14 goals in seven games and still almost lost the series, and did it while allowing 35+ shots per game on average. Their style works against poor offensive teams, but I think Washington will expose their defense, force a more up-tempo style and run them right out of the series. WASHINGTON IN FIVE.
Philadelphia vs. Boston: Of all the things I saw in the first round, Philly pulled off the most impressive feat – they won their series despite using three goalies and allowing some of the softest goals I can remember in any playoff series. They deserve credit for overcoming that adversity, and they are clearly the most dangerous offense in the East – but I wonder how much long-term damage coach Peter Laviolette did to promising goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. By benching ‘Bob’ after only two games- one of which was a 1-0 loss – and even worse, not even dressing him as backup for three games, Laviolette clearly indicated he lost faith in the young man – despite the fact that ‘Bob started 52 games and won 28 of them during the regular season. Time will tell, but we know this: Brian Boucher may have saved the day in Round One, but he played over his head – at age 34, he is what he is, a decent backup, not a Cup-winning stalwart.
The Bruins also had goalie issues early in the series, losing their first two games at home, but they stuck with their goalie, Tim Thomas, and were rewarded with four wins in their last five games. Thomas’ final series numbers were great, a 2.25 GAA and a .926 sv%. Those numbers may suffer a bit against the powerful Flyers, but Thomas’ greatest asset is his ability to bounce back. He is unorthodox and will give up a bad goal or two, but his confidence will likely be unfazed by a tough game. The rest of the Bruins have to find the back of the net to stay in this series, and also have to forget comparisons to last year’s epic collapse. Philly overcame a 3-0 series deficit last year against Boston to make the Cup finals, and both teams will be reminded of that plenty over the next two weeks. I personally believe momentum is a game-to-game thing and that last season will mean just about nothing in this series.
Both teams dominated during the last round while at even-strength, but both were badly outplayed on special teams, especially the Bruins (scored NO power play goals, allowed seven). I cannot imagine a worse power play than the Penguins, but facts are facts – the Bruins went 0-for the series against Montreal. Obviously, they will have to improve this round, and it’s easy to predict they will – too much talent, and regression to the mean works both ways. I see this series coming down to whose power play is more effective – I think they will play more or less to a draw at even-strength, and a key PP or shorthanded goal may well turn the series. Two factors have me going with the Bruins – better goaltending, and the uncertainty about Chris Pronger’s health. The Flyers’ defense simply isn’t that impressive without big Prong on the blueline for 40% of the game. Should be a good series with plenty of goals, but in the end I like the BRUINS IN SEVEN.
Quick recap of the Pens – #1, as I said this team will always have a special place in my heart because of how they overcame adversity. I defy ANY team in the league to lose their top two players, and at one point top four centers, and finish as well as the Pens did – and that’s all a credit to coach Dan Bylsma, who is deservedly a Coach of the Year finalist. I believe that a healthy Sidney Crosby OR Evgeni Malkin would have meant a different outcome last round – it really did come down to scoring one key goal.
Having said all that, and with great respect for Bylsma, he was outcoached in the playoffs. The power play has been underachieving for years, but it found new lows against Tampa; 1-for-35, are you kidding?? The power play is too important to not address in the offseason, and I’m not the only writer calling for a power play specialist to join the coaching staff. Beyond that, he stuck with ineffective line combinations too long, I wasn’t crazy about the trap-busting strategies I saw the Pens employ, and not putting Tangradi in for Games 6 and 7, especially given the woes on the power play, was inexcusable. I understand there’s a fine line between ‘dance with who brung ya’ and making changes that seem like panic, but after five games it was apparent what was and was not working. He was never hesitant to make lineup changes all season long – why he was so resistant in the playoffs is unclear, but he made a poor choice.
We’ll look at the roster in-depth this summer, but there will be significant changes among the forwards and probably none among defense or goalies. The silver lining of this series loss to me is that it erases any chance of Crosby taking a chance of returning too early – he can now re-build his stamina over four months, and if he isn’t ready by September then his career really is in jeopardy. He was missed, but I’d take a series loss any day over permanently damaging Sid’s career – or more importantly, permanently affecting his quality of life.
Next week, we’ll probably look at some odds and ends again, including the NFL draft.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.