AL WEST
Predicted standings:
1.) Texas (1st in 2010)
2.) Oakland (2nd)
3.) LA Angels (3rd)
4.) Seattle (4th)
Notes: Yes, I’m predicting the same finishing order as last year, but frankly this seems like a very mediocre division. Texas lost Vlad Guerrero and Cliff Lee; Oakland’s offense is mediocre at best; the Angels seem to be slipping fast (more on them in a second); and Seattle had the worst offense of any team in the last 40 years. Seattle’s offense will be better – it cannot be any worse – but I simply do not see anywhere near enough power in the Mariners’ lineup for them to be even an average offense, and their rotation is also very suspect after Felix Hernandez. Oakland also has a lineup that won’t scare too many opponents, but their rotation has the POTENTIAL to be great – however, since it is a very young rotation, expect some growing pains and at least one major injury this summer, and that will keep Oakland from truly contending.
Now, the Angels – I’ve never really understood the way they operate, but until last season it was hard to argue with their success. However, last year they fell apart offensively and that led to what I consider the biggest ‘panic’ trade of the winter: the Angels traded Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for Vernon Wells. Leave salary aside, and I still think this is a bad deal for LA – Napoli is a catcher/DH who will not hit for much average, but he also has a lot of power – 26 HRs last year, and catchers with that kind of power are very rare. Rivera struggled in 2010, but here are his career numbers: .280 average, .328 on-base%, .461 slugging%, and he’s 32 years old. Wells’ career numbers: .280 average, .329 OBP, .475 slugging%, and he’s also 32 years old. The argument might be that as a CF, Wells has more value, and I might buy that – except in LA, Wells is slated to play left, with speedy Peter Bourjos set to play center. Now, add in Wells’ salary – he is owed a staggering $86 million over the next four seasons, and the Blue Jays only had to pick up $45 million of that as part of the trade. So by my reckoning, the Angels traded Rivera, threw in a power-hitting catcher, and in return got a player roughly of Rivera’s caliber, same age – only he is paid $21 million+ a year for the next four years. Exactly HOW is that a good deal?? The Angels will still struggle to score – they will be somewhat improved, but this offense still isn’t that great – and their starting staff is highly questionable after Haren and Weaver. They could contend if Texas struggles and this division becomes a race to 84 wins – but overall I think the window has closed for the Angels, and the next few years could be very trying.
That leaves Texas, and while I think there are some holes on this squad, their obvious strength – a deep and powerful lineup, even with Vlad gone – should carry them to another division crown. If Adrian Beltre can repeat his 2010 (don’t hold your breath) and if Brandon Webb completes his comeback from injury, this could be a very dominant team – but unless disaster befalls them, they should win 85-90 games and be the class of the West. They also proved last season that why will make a bold move if they are in contention, and I look for them to make an in-season move to bolster the rotation again. Yes, it figures to be a weak division, but anything can happen once the playoffs start, and the Rangers figure to be there again.
AL CENTRAL
Predicted Standings
1.) Minnesota (1st in 2010)
2.) Detroit (3rd)
3.) Chicago (2nd)
4.) Kansas City (5th)
5.) Cleveland (4th)
Notes: Not a lot of changes in the division for 2011, and of all the AL teams I see the Twins as the safest bet for a division crown. They have a deep starting staff, the best catcher in baseball, a solid outfield, and best of all an apparently healthy Justin Morneau. As long as Mauer and Morneau are healthy, this team should easily win 90+ games and cruise into October. I picked Detroit over the White Sox because I think the Sox will start showing their age this year, particularly Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynski. Adding Adam Dunn will help offset that, and I still think this is a .500 or better team, but I don’t see the lineup or pitching depth to truly contend in September. Detroit added Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta, and I expect they will score enough runs, but the big question is on the mound – the Tigers were in the bottom third of the AL in runs allowed, and they have to get at least to the middle of the pack to compete against the Twins (who finished 3rd in runs allowed last season). Detroit has the makings of a decent rotation with Verlander and Scherzer as their aces, but the back end of the rotation needs to be a lot better and the bullpen needs to improve as well.
There’s a big gap in my opinion from the Sox and Tigers down to the Royals and Indians – I’d consider it a major upset if either KC or Cleveland finishes with even 75 wins, much less a .500 record. I picked KC to escape the basement because their farm system is now ranked #1 in all of MLB, and the fruits of that system will begin to ripen this summer; however, the team on Opening Day might be the worst in the majors. My hope for them almost entirely rests on help coming up midseason; if the young players’ development is thrown off schedule, KC will lose 100 games. Cleveland, meanwhile, appears to me to be a class one mess and is my preseason favorite to be the worst AL team – their opening day roster is almost as weak as the Royals’, and their farm system is not nearly as rich in talent. The Indians do have an underrated player in Shin-Soo Choo and potential power bats, but their rotation is a disaster and they will likely allow around five runs per game. I don’t see a lot of hope in Cleveland right now.
AL EAST
Predicted Standings
1.) Boston (3rd in 2010)
2.) New York (2nd)
3.) Toronto (4th)
4.) Tampa Bay (1st)
5.) Baltimore (5th)
Notes: I believe that the AL East in 2011 is the best division in baseball, and that if the schedule were more balanced that all five teams might finish above .500. With Baltimore’s late-2010 surge and their offseason acquisitions, there is no terrible team in the East for the first time in a very long time – and I predict some very surprising things will happen in this division. Let’s start from the bottom – Baltimore still doesn’t have enough to compete with the ‘big boys’ in the division, and I also need to see how much of their improvement under Buck Showalter last season will stick this year – but make no mistake, this is a team on the rise. They should score their share of runs with the revamped lineup – adding JJ Hardy, Vlad, Mark Reynolds, and Derrick Lee leaves them with no obvious lineup holes, and Matt Wieters could still break out as a top catcher. No, the question will be the starters – there’s some hope here, especially if Justin Duchscherer can return to health and Brian Matusz continues to develop into an ace, but the rest of the rotation is full of soft-tossers who likely will get beat around a bit. We’ll know a lot more about Baltimore’s future after this season.
Tampa won the division in 2010, but they probably overachieved a bit on offense (they scored almost 70 more runs than Detroit despite similar OBP and slugging%, for example), and free agency really hurt this team. Carl Crawford’s all-around game is now in Beantown, and while you might look at Carlos Pena’s .196 average and think good riddance, he did hit 28 home runs and walk 82 times – both crucial stats for this low-average offense. They brought in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, but both are aging and prone to injury – and Manny is such a headcase that counting on him is a mistake. Frankly, I think this offense is now likely to be among the bottom third of the league. Another major issue is the bullpen – almost all of the main components are gone, including standout closer Rafael Soriano. Kyle Farnsworth is slated to be the closer, and that’s never a good sign for a team. The strength of the team is undoubtedly the rotation – it’s deep, hard-throwing, and thus far has been extremely durable. The pressure will be on the starters to keep the Rays in close, low-scoring games – and while they can compete with that strategy, in the rough-and-tumble AL East I think you need bats to win, not just starters. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red sox all appear to have far superior offenses, and so I am forced to pick Tampa to finish 4th.
I think a lot of people are overlooking the Blue Jays – did you realize they went 85-77 last year, and hit over 250 home runs? Yes, Jose Bautista will probably regress some, but I’ve been reading that scouts see his power as real and expect 30-40 HRs from him. They also have a catcher with power potential in JP Arencibia, and Travis Snider will likely improve in his second season. Their offense comes down to the rebound of three players: Juan Rivera, Adam Lind, and Aaron Hill. All three were far worse in 2010 than they had been in 2009 – and all three are good bets to rebound in 2011, Hill most of all (take note – he’s a GREAT fantasy sleeper at 2B). All in all, I am bullish on the Toronto offense. The pitching is another story – there’s some talent in the rotation, but it’s young and mostly unproven – and betting on young pitchers is a sure way to be disappointed. IF the rotation fulfills its potential, this is a playoff contender, but I think it’s more likely that at least one or two of the pitchers will disappoint, and the Jays will be playing out the string in September. This does seem to be a franchise on the rise as well, however.
I’m not going to spend a lot of time on the Yankees – although I am more skeptical than I’ve been in awhile because of their thin rotation and the age of their lineup. Jeter, Posada, and Rivera are very near the end now, and A-Rod showed early signs of decline as well. Cano is great, and Teixeira figures to be consistent as well, but I see reason to predict decline at just about every other offensive position. The rotation is great at the top with Sabathia and Hughes, but after that it’s all question marks – even if Burnett comes back strong from a poor 2010 (and I think he will), the Yankees have real questions at the bottom of the rotation. Adding Soriano to the bullpen was a great move and gives them some Rivera insurance, but overall I don’t see a dominant team here, and if they do not make some big moves in the offseason (which they probably will) the Yankees could enter a period of decline. For 2011, I think the Yankees have JUST enough firepower to hold off Toronto and Tampa, but I think all three of those clubs will be in a dogfight for much of the summer.
The 2011 Red Sox have a chance to be one of the best offenses in recent memory. With the acquisitions of Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and the return to health of Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, the only question mark anywhere is at catcher. Boston should get above-average offense from every other position, and with Mike Cameron and Jed Lowrie on the bench they also have enviable depth. However, Boston scored plenty of runs in 2010 (2nd behind the Yankees at 5.05 runs per game); the problem was the pitching. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were great, and Daniel Bard was a splendid set-up man – every other pitcher on the staff had an ERA of 3.9 or worse, and most were 4.5 or worse. The bullpen was rebuilt by adding Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, but the Sox season depends in large part on rebounds from John Lackey and Josh Beckett. Beckett had his worst season as a pro, while Lackey had his worst since 2003 – if both rebound even partially, then Boston should cruise to a division title. I’m still worried about Beckett, but I think Lackey will settle in this season and the Sox will have enough pitching to win the AL East with 95 wins or so.
Later this week, our NL preview – remember, Opening Day is this Thursday!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.