As long-time readers doubtless have guessed, basketball isn’t exactly my thing. However, like almost everyone else, I love watching the NCAA tournament, and I fill out many brackets each year. This March, I thought about writing a column about March Madness – then I remembered, I’ve watched exactly TWO basketball games all season, and both were last week (Penn State’s wins over Wisconsin and MSU). Therefore, I called in a relief pitcher for the week – My good friend Coty Soult. Coty is an avid college hoops fan and LOVES Duke. He watches basketball all winter and has a really good sense of the entire tournament field. Without further ado, here’s Coty!
A few people follow college basketball all year long, anxiously awaiting the next big recruit to sign with their favorite school. For some, college basketball gets underway with “midnight madness” in mid-October when teams are allowed to have their first practice of the year. But for most, college basketball starts with filling out brackets in March. This is the time of year that you will hear anyone and everyone talking about college basketball – the buzzer beaters, the upsets, the amazing performances. Here is a secret I am going to let everyone in on….. It’s like that all season long, which is why it is one of my favorite sports to watch.
The NCAA tournament is, in my opinion, the most exciting playoff in all of sports. Unlike college football, everyone has a shot at the National Championship, even the little guy. All teams have to do is win your conference or be one of the 37 “best” teams in the country not to win your conference (as determined by a selection committee). This brings us to a total of 68 teams. Now over the last few days you will have heard a lot of talk about how this team should have made it or that team should have made it, but when you really look at the teams that make the field the selection committee does a very good job every year of selecting the “at large bids”. This is the new format for the NCAA tournament. I love college basketball, and the tournament even more, but both have been watered down lately by new rules. The talent level in the game is down due to players leaving early for the NBA. Just imagine this year’s tournament with the five freshmen from last year’s Kentucky team in it, or the past few tournaments with the likes of Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, and Derrick Rose. Wow! Wouldn’t that be fun to watch those guys mature in the college ranks? Now, I’m not saying that high school kids shouldn’t be able to go straight to the NBA, but I do think that something more like the baseball rules should apply. Either go straight to the NBA, or not be eligible for the draft again until after your junior year. Maybe that is just me being greedy because I don’t watch the NBA, but wouldn’t that make both leagues better? How many times do you see a good college basketball player come out and have to go to the D-league, or worse sit the bench the whole season and not develop at all? As far as the tournament is concerned… how long will it be until there are 128 teams in it? This is ridiculous, why even have a regular season or conference tournament if you are just going to let everyone in?
Every year there are teams and names that define the tournament, so I have listed some of these below to keep an eye out for in the “My Favorites” and “Sleepers” section of this article. As for my prediction, for local people who may be rooting for Penn State or Pittsburgh, I am sorry to tell you don’t hold your breath. Penn State relies too heavily on their point guard Taylor Battle, he is good, but what happens when they run into a team that can stop him, they have no one else to turn to? Jeff Brooks is good, but he is not a go to scorer, in the tournament this means big trouble. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a great team and got the No. 1 seed in the Southeast region; but history makes it difficult to pencil in the Panthers to get to Houston. The Panthers have lost to lower-seeded teams in seven of the past nine years, and are just 1-7 all-time against teams seeded fifth or better. This may be the most offensively gifted team the Panthers have ever had with guard Ashton Gibbs and forward Gilbert Brown. But defensively this is not your traditional Pitt team that we have come to know under head coach Jamie Dixon. I think ultimately that the star freshman point guard for Duke suits up for the first time since injuring his right big toe against Butler early in December. This will propel the Blue Devils back to the title game where they meet Kansas in a rematch of the 1991 Final where Duke won their first of back-to-back titles. I think that in this game Kansas gets revenge by stopping Duke from winning back-to-back titles once again.
Ok, so enough about that, what everyone really wants to know about is picking their bracket. Right? Well, there are a few things that I think you should know before making your picks:
The Truth
- If you are a college basketball fan and follow the sport closely, take your bracket and give it to your grandma, four year old kid, or anyone else that knows nothing about the sport to have them fill out, because that is how unpredictable this tournament can be.
- There are 147,573,952,589,676,412,928 different possible brackets with a 68-team field.
The Upsets
- The lowest seed team to reach the finals and win the tournament was #8 seed Villanova in 1985.
- In 2008, the Final Four was comprised of all No. 1 seeds for the first time ever.
- In 23 of the last 26 years a No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed and a No. 12 has won 33% of the time in the first round.
- No. 12 seeds that do win their first-round games also go on to win their second-round games almost 50% of the time, with a 15-17 record in Round 2.
The Chalk
- Never pick a 16 seed, 16 seeds are 0-104 since the tournament expanded in 1985.
- You probably don’t want to pick a 15 seed either since they have only won 4 times.
- Since 1985, 91 of 104 No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16, and only once have two top seeds failed to get there in the same year.
- Only twice has there been a Final Four without a No. 1 seed (1980, 2006).
- Only two teams lower than a No. 8 have made it to the Final Four.
- Only eight teams seeded worse than sixth have reached the Final Four, and only three in the past 24 NCAA tourneys (2006 George Mason, 2000 North Carolina, 2000 Wisconsin).
- 24 of the last 32 national champions have been No. 1 or No. 2 seeds.
- The last national champ to be seeded worse than third was Arizona in 1997.
My Favorites In Each Region
- Ohio State (1):
Pros- Great low post presence with freshman Jared Sullinger, excellent shooters in David Lighty, and Jon Diebler (all time Big Ten leader in 3- pointers)
Cons- Slashing guard able to draw the defense.
- Duke (1):
Pros- Legitimate National Player of the Year candidate in Nolan Smith, one of the best all around players in the country with Kyle Singler. Experience (They won it all last year).
Cons- A true point guard
- Kansas (1):
Pros- #5 scoring offense in college basketball, two legit inside scoring threats in the Morris twins.
Cons- Defense is suspect at #92 in the country.
- Wisconsin (4):
Pros- They have two great scorers in Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor both of whom average over 18 points a game.
Cons- The lack of a third scoring option.
Sleepers
- Oakland (13):
Pros- Good guard play with Reggie Hamilton, possible NBA center with Keith Benson. Second in the country in both scoring and field goal percentage. Played a tough non-conference schedule, lost by one to Michigan St. and beat Tennessee.
Cons- The only tournament team they beat all year was Tennessee.
- Florida State (10):
Pros- Excellent defense (#2 adjusted defense in the country), good draw for their style of play.
Cons- Best player (Chris Singleton) coming back from an untested broken foot.
- St. John’s (6):
Pros- An electric scorer in Dwight Hardy. Wins against five top 15 teams including wins against two #1 seeds (Duke and Pitt).
Cons- Rebounding, they are #281 in the country in this category.
Coty, many thanks again for this great work! Readers, later this week we will FINALLY begin our long-awaited baseball preview.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net. Our guest columnist this week, Coty Soult, lives and works in Clearfield. He loves watching his Blue Devils beat up the ACC, especially the Tar Heels, with his wife Becki and daughter Jena at his side.