Saints at Seahawks: I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this one…it’s not just that Seattle was 7-9, folks; decent teams have gone 7-9 before. It’s that they were a TERRIBLE 7-9, a team that was outscored by 97 points on the year (worst for any playoff team in NFL history), a team that never had a running back run for 90 yards in a game, much less 100, a team which finished 3-7 with wins over the Cardinals, Panthers, and Rams – two terrible teams and a young Rams team that was clearly overwhelmed by the stakes early on. I picked the Seahawks to finish 4-12 and only a bit of luck and a terrible division saved them from that record. The Seahawks were poor in all facets of the game on the season except special teams – footballoutsiders.com has them ranked 29th (out of 32) for both offense AND defense for 2010. Yes, they are a truly bad team.
On the other hand, the Saints, while not the powerhouse of 2009, are a quality football team. Their run game isn’t great, but their defense was quite good, especially against the pass, and as you know Drew Brees has established himself as a top-5 QB in the league. The Saints’ special teams are not very good, and therein lies one of two possible paths to victory for Seattle – either they win the turnover battle by a significant margin, or they make two or three big plays on special teams. Barring that, I think they get blown out again (they already lost to the Saints by 15 in November), and while in the NFL anything is possible, I think the Saints will take care of business here. SAINTS by at least 10 points.
Jets at Colts: I remember watching the 1987 PSU-Miami Fiesta bowl and Bob Costas’ pregame theme was “A QB and a Coach”, referring to Testaverde of Miami and JoePa. That same theme runs through my mind here, because the two dominant figures in this game are clearly Manning and Jets’ coach Rex Ryan. This Colts team is devastated by injury and just not that talented at this point; Manning had to throw more passes for more yards than ever before in his career just to drag this team into the playoffs, and he did that throwing to Jacob Tamme and Blair White, players even diehard Colts fans had never heard of in September. Manning has had better years statistically, but in my opinion the last four games of this season were his finest hour – with virtually no running game and a porous defense (the Colts allowed 20 or more points in 10 games, and 133 points in their last five games) – the Colts won four in a row and Manning threw nine TDs and only two INTs in that span. The Colts have always been dependent on Peyton, but this year, they will certainly go only as far as he takes them – in my estimation, with an average QB the Colts are about a 6-10 team based on their talent. Yes, Manning threw a lot of INTs, but 11 of them were over a 3-game stretch – outside of those three games, he threw 25 TDs against 6 INTs. Yes, those games count as well, but my point is that Manning was still able to produce at an elite level even with below-average receivers and no running game.
As for the Jets, they are a good team but not as great as their reputation, or their coach, would have you believe. Last year they were a dominant defense, ranking first in points and yards allowed – in 2010 they were still a very good defense, but not nearly as dominant, ranking sixth in the league in points allowed. The offense improved slightly, but overall the Jets outscored their opponents by 63 points in 2010 after outscoring the opposition by 112 in 2009. Offensively, there’s no doubt that Mark Sanchez improved in 2010 – but with 17 TDs, 13 INTs and only a 55% completion percentage it’s also clear that he is not close to being an elite QB yet. Those numbers are simply not that great, especially when you consider he has a strong running game and three top receivers in Holmes, Edwards, and Keller. The Jets’ ground game is very solid, led by LaDanian Tomlinson (in what is probably his final productive season), and Shonn Greene. Brad smith also ran the ball effectively, and this trio will be key if the Jets are to win – keeping Peyton on the sideline and putting Sanchez in manageable passing situations will be very important for the Jets’ chances.
Defensively, they are much more vulnerable to the pass than they were a year ago – CB Darrell Revis simply slipped a notch, whether due to his preseason injury or complacency after emerging in 2009 is unclear. The Jets did accumulate 40 sacks, and pressuring Manning without big blitzes is another key for New York – Manning can beat a big blitz, but getting pressure from four or five rushers can really bother him. The Jets are very good against the run, but the Colts are so poor running the ball that I doubt they will even try to rush much in this game unless they get a big lead.
Special teams are one key factor in the Jets favor – they had good special teams according to footballoutsiders’ metrics, while the Colts had the 2nd-worst special teams. Smith’s TD against the Steelers was the key to their win last month, and a similar big play would greatly enhance New York’s chances this week.
In the end, though, I cannot get away from the fact that to win this game, Mark Sanchez will most likely have to play Peyton Manning even. I look for the Colts to stack the line to stop the run, much as they did to the Chiefs a few years ago, and dare Sanchez to beat them. On the flip side, even with less weapons to work with I think Manning is capable of 300 yards and 2-3 TDs; while I think Sanchez will make a mistake or two. This game could easily swing either way on a turnover or special teams play, but I’m not ready to go against Manning here. COLTS by a touchdown.
Ravens at Chiefs: As I mentioned in our weekly GANT Challenge, I think the Chiefs are being undervalued by a lot of people. Yes, they stunk up the joint last week against the Raiders – so what? They had nothing to play for and no reason to go all-out in that game. Even with that loss they finished 7-1 at home, and Arrowhead has long been considered one of the toughest stadiums for visiting teams in the NFL. KC is a flawed team, make no mistake – they are no better than average on defense, and aside from Dwayne Bowe they lack much talent at receiver – but Matt Cassel has come into his own as a passer, and RB Jamaal Charles was the best RB in the league in 2010. No, he didn’t win the rushing title, but he averaged 6.4 yards per carry! That’s almost unheard of – leaving QBs like Vick aside, only Jim Brown has averaged 6.4 yards in a season in the modern era. Barry Sanders never came close to that figure. In fact, I believe part of the reason the Chiefs weren’t better is their insistence on splitting time between Charles and Thomas Jones. Look at the numbers:
Charles: 230 carries, 1467 yards (6.4 per carry)
Jones: 245 carries, 896 yards (3.7 per carry)
That says it all – frankly, if Jones sees more than 15 carries against Baltimore the Chiefs deserve to lose. They should give Charles 30 carries and see what happens. His explosiveness is their best chance to win the game. I believe they WILL try to establish the ground game with Charles – and I believe they will have success. The Ravens didn’t give up that many rushing yards, but they allowed 3.9 yards per carry – contrast that with the Steelers’ 3.0 or even the Jets’ 3.6. The Chiefs’ ability to run the ball is the key to this game – if they can control the clock, they will win. This will set up some play-action passes and the real secret of the 2010 Ravens is they do not defend the pass that well – they recorded only 27 sacks and were in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed. Remember the 28-7 lead they blew to the Texans? I said it then and I’ll say it now – no great defense blows a 21-point second-half lead. That game showed me how vulnerable this team really is – also, consider that the Bengals moved the ball up and down the field last Sunday, only to self-destruct. Carson Palmer will do that; I do not believe Matt Cassel will.
Defensively the Chiefs are nothing special, in fact by any measure they were average to below-average on that side of the ball. The only thing they did well was force turnovers, and that can vary wildly from game to game. In short, if the Ravens take care of the ball they should be able to put points on the board against the Chiefs. The Ravens were very much an underachieving offense, in my opinion – when you have Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and a good o-line you should be a top offense not an average one – yet the Ravens actually slipped badly from 2009, finishing 16th in points and 22nd in yards gained in 2010 after ranking ninth and 13th in 2009. Flacco’s numbers appear pretty good on the surface, but he has shown a tendency to rattle under pressure, and he also was sacked 40 times – too many for a non-scrambling QB. I’ve watched the Ravens a lot, and I just never get the sense that Flacco is a top QB, someone who can single-handedly will his team to a win. Maybe that will come, but for now he’s suspect in my mind.
In the end, I think that the Ravens have to put the Chiefs away early and force KC to throw often. If the game stays close the crowd will get into it, the Ravens’ veteran defense will tire, and in the end Jamaal Charles will be the difference. If the Chiefs get through the first quarter down seven or less, they are in great shape, and I think that’s exactly what will happen – my upset special, CHIEFS by a field goal.
Packers at Eagles: In my mind this is the premier game of the week. Frankly both of these teams have a claim to being the class of the NFC – Atlanta is great, but a bit too conservative at times, and do you REALLY trust the Bears with Jay Cutler? For what it’s worth, footballoutsiders.com (you really should check them out) agrees, ranking Green Bay #3 in the NFL overall and #1 in the NFC, and Philly #5 overall. Green Bay in particular is a fascinating team to me – they only went 10-6, but lost two games in OT, two others by three points, and the other two by four points (and those with their elite QB injured). They almost beat the Patriots on the road with Aaron Rodgers out! On the other hand, they did lose to the Redskins and Dolphins, as well as that awful 7-3 loss to the Lions – so what is up with this team, are they unlucky or do they have real problems? I think a bit of both – clearly when you lose by such thin margins, there’s some bad luck at play, but the flip side is that Green Bay is not a good rushing team and they also struggle to defend the run – problems that are exacerbated in close games. Also, they were pretty bad on special teams – the Pats’ game was a good example of that, with an o-lineman returning a kick over 70 yards against them.
However, they have some clear strengths – Aaron Rodgers has made everyone forget Favre, and has become an elite QB, and he has a good, mostly young receiving corps. The defense was probably the best in the NFL against the pass, recording 24 INTs and only allowing 16 TD passes while recording 47 sacks. Overall footballoutsiders ranks Green Bay’s defense at #2 in the league, behind only the Steelers. Both units are young – aside from Charles Woodson and Donald Driver, every key member of the team is in their twenties. Sometimes for a young team consistency is the last element to arrive, and it appears so in this case as well.
The Eagles will definitely test that Packers ‘D’ – they were third in the league in scoring, and Mike Vick presents obvious issues for any defense. Say what you want about Andy Reid – he doesn’t manage the clock well, he eats too many cheese steaks, etc. – but he CLEARLY is a QB expert. He helped McNabb become a top QB, knew exactly when to part ways with him, and look at what Vick has become under Reid – his last three seasons in Atlanta, Vick completed 55% of his passes and averaged 2400 yards passing, with a total of 49 TDs and 38 INTs. In 12 games this season he completed 62% of his passes for 3018 yards, 21TDs, and only six INTs (all career bests) – while still remaining the most dangerous rushing QB in league history. Leaving his criminal history aside, his comeback is most impressive and while he obviously worked hard and bought into the system, Reid deserves just as much credit for teaching an old dog new tricks (sorry, couldn’t resist). The downside of all of this is that Vick gets hit a lot – he took 34 sacks in addition to 100 official rushing attempts. One has to wonder when those hits will take their toll on his scrambling, but it hasn’t changed his running ways so far.
The Eagles are known as a passing team, and deservedly so, but they rushed for 2300+ yards this year as well. LeSean McCoy is often overlooked, but he has become a capable replacement for Brian Westbrook – he averaged 5.2 yards per carry and also caught 78 passes. Four other Eagles caught 40+ passes, so even though DeSean Jackson is the biggest receiving threat, Philly has other weapons as well.
Defensively, the Eagles are in transition. For the second year in a row they were in the bottom half of the league in points allowed, and they do not excel in any area. They allowed 100+ yards rushing to the last six teams that they played, and after forcing 26 turnovers through 10 games, they forced only eight in their last six games – it’s no coincidence that they started 7-3 and finished 10-6. I’ll give them a pass in Week 17 as they rested a lot of starters, but a lot was at stake against a demoralized Vikings team at home in week 16, and they gave up 161 yards on the ground and generally got pushed around. While the Packers aren’t a great rushing team, look for them to try to establish a running game early against Philly to force more defenders to run blitz, opening up the deep passing game. The Eagles HAVE to make Green Bay a one dimensional offense – if the Packers run the ball well in this game, Philly is in a lot of trouble.
The wild card is clearly Vick – he single-handedly got this team to the playoffs with that epic comeback over the Giants in Week 15. However, consider that aside from those eight minutes of football, this team hasn’t played well since Dec. 12 – and they allowed less than 20 points only twice all season. That tells me that Green Bay will almost certainly score 25-30 points, putting a lot of pressure on Vick to play mistake-free football to keep up. He’s capable of amazing things, but I think the Pack is the better team and I think they will prevail here. PACKERS by a TD.
Next week, more football previews, and if we have time perhaps a BCS title game review.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.